The Political Risk Podcast

This special edition of the Political Risk Podcast features Verisk Maplecroft’s Political Risk Outlook report. Anna Gilmour, Head of Global Risk Insight, joins Hugo Brennan, Director of Research, EMEA, to discuss the research, offering a forward-looking assessment of the forces reshaping geopolitics, global markets and insurance portfolios.The special episode explores why political risk has become structural rather than cyclical, with instability now embedded across developed and emerging markets. Anna outlines the headline findings from Verisk Maplecroft’s extensive risk data and expert analysis, explaining why businesses and insurers must now proactively plan around persistent uncertainty rather than treating shocks as one-off events.Hugo talks us through the report’s conflict chapter, detailing the sharp expansion of conflict-affected territories since 2021, from high-profile wars to under-reported flashpoints in Nigeria, Pakistan and Colombia. He also examines the rise of hybrid warfare activity across Europe as a key trend for political violence underwriters.Conversation turns to mounting government instability and the sharp rise in civil unrest risk across Europe, before Anna assesses the geopolitical and commercial implications of the new tariff environment, shifting supply chains and the uneven resilience of key emerging markets.To conclude, Anna and Hugo guide listeners through the report’s three core scenarios for the world to 2030 – Drift, Fracture, Adaptation – and highlight some signposts that could reveal which path the world is taking. A direct link to Verisk Maplecroft’s Political Risk Outlook report is included below.https://www.maplecroft.com/resources/outlooks/political-risk-outlook/

Robert Hunter, former US ambassador to NATO and chief White House official for Europe and the Middle East joins Mosaic Insurance’s international CUO Charlie Mackay to explore why a firm grasp of history is essential to understanding today’s geopolitical uncertainty. From US foreign-policy unpredictability to the return of great-power rivalry and the role of China, Robert explains how complacency over decades has eroded strategic thinking in Washington. Charlie provides an underwriting perspective on what uncertainty and complacency at government level mean for political risk and political violence risks facing global business.The two discuss the value of historical context, local expertise and new AI tools helping insurers assess ‘what-if’ scenarios for multinationals operating in volatile regions. They also reflect on shifting alliances, Russia-Ukraine, and why unpredictability is driving demand for specialty insurance protection.Enjoy this latest special episode, produced in association with Mosaic. My thanks also to The Ambassador Partnership, and below a link to Robert’s “History Matters” article for further reading. https://americandiplomacy.web.unc.edu/2025/10/history-matters/

Pamela Thomson-Hall, head of international at Willis, offers crisis management advice, supporting clients through geopolitical shocks and leading an international broking business. From Russia–Ukraine lessons to horizon scanning, scenario analysis and a guidebook for CEOs, she explains why preparation, agility, clear communication and cultural sensitivity are essential when crises suddenly unfold. Pamela also discusses aviation insurance, from war claims and contract certainty, to supporting the return of civil aviation to Ukrainian airspace.

As Ukraine endures and rebuilds, insurers are playing a quiet but crucial role in keeping goods moving and businesses operating.Jamie Cleary, head of crisis management at MS Amlin, speaks about the creation of the Ukraine Reinsurance Guarantee Facility (URGF), a landmark partnership between the EBRD, donor governments, and the private insurance market.He explains how the URGF provides war risk cover to local Ukrainian insurers, supporting trade and economic resilience, and why it could serve as a blueprint for future public-private insurance models in other high-risk regions.The discussion also explores how modern warfare, drone technology, and AI are reshaping crisis management underwriting — and why, behind every insurance policy, there’s a deeply human story.

How can political risk insurance unlock trillions in investment for sustainable development? William Limb, head of political risk solutions at Liberty Specialty Markets (LSM) discusses a landmark UNCTAD report, “De-risking Investment for Sustainable Development Goals: The Role of Political Risk Insurance”. The conversation explores how political risk cover can bridge the $4trn annual funding gap holding back projects in emerging markets – from energy and infrastructure to clean water and housing. Limb discusses LSM’s global political risk portfolio, a doubling of inquiries made about cover within the past year, innovation in bespoke and portfolio-level solutions, and the growing role of public–private collaboration in de-risking investment. He also explains how awareness of the product remains limited beyond multilateral circles, why the private market is crucial to scaling protection, and how insurers can add value beyond pure risk transfer. A deep dive into how underwriting expertise and creative structures can help investors deliver impact while managing geopolitical risk.

Kidnap and ransom (K&R) is one of the most specialised – and least understood – corners of the insurance world.In this special episode, in association with Gallagher Specialty, Eddie Kurshumlija, director of crisis management at Gallagher Specialty, and Adam Carrier, head of consulting at AnotherDay, a Gallagher company, explore how K&R policies work in practice, from what’s typically included or can be added on, to response consultants, intelligence support, duty of care and crisis planning.Discussion moves on to examine where conditions are ripe for K&R to proliferate, from weak rule of law and organised crime to civil unrest and geopolitical instability. The guests highlight case studies from Syria, Nigeria, Mexico and beyond, while also looking at rising risks in Western contexts such as workplace violence.

Bruce Carman, CEO of Hive Underwriters, returns for a wide-ranging conversation. You can’t get broader than space, where we start, which is Hive’s latest launch. We trace the London MGA's development from aviation war into multi-class specialty agency. We also discuss consequences of June's High Court ruling that losses incurred by aircraft lessors of planes seized by Russia after its invasion of Ukraine are to be covered under aviation hull war policies.

Trade wars and geopolitics are reshaping global supply chains, counterparty risk, and credit and political risk insurance (CPRI). In this episode, Eran Charit, senior broker at Lockton Re, shares his perspective on how a pipeline of new CPRI entrants and fresh capacity are softening conditions in the primary market, while treaty reinsurance remains more fragile to systemic shocks, due to the short list of reinsurers willing to lead in this class. We discuss the risks of a reinsurer suddenly exiting, and systemic shock scenarios that could destabilise portfolios, from corporate fraud to a cyber-attack on digital infrastructure. With experience broking at both primary and reinsurance levels, Eran brings unique insight into a fast-moving and often misunderstood class of business.

Jelle Ouwehand, head of war, terrorism and political violence at Arch Insurance International, features in this episode. Political violence has a close and complex relationship with social media. The speed at which news travels, and the democratising power of social media, are meeting with forces of political populism and polarisation. Together with increased proliferation of fake news, misinformation and disinformation, all these factors mean social media are fanning the flames of social disorder, with inevitable fallout for underwriting PV and SRCC risks.

Jérôme Haegeli, Swiss Re’s chief economist, discusses its latest Sigma study. Global growth is slowing at a time of large macroeconomic regime shifts; extreme policy uncertainty is set to persist with the highest US goods tariffs since the Great Depression, the reinsurer’s report warns. This ep relates headline geopolitics to outcomes for insurance premium and claims trends – positive and negative – across lines of business, from marine cargo to motor, and property catastrophe reinsurance business. You can read the Swiss Re Sigma study “World insurance in 2025: a riskier, more fragmented world order”, here. https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/sigma-research.html