Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Stephanie Cohen, Chief Strategy Officer at Goldman Sachs, shares her wealth of experience in M&A and corporate strategy. She dives into the complexities of mergers, referencing her work on the Fiat deal and the strategic insights gained. Cohen emphasizes the crucial balance between innovation and improving existing operations, and discusses the shift from a transactional to a recurring revenue model. She also tackles the important issue of empowering women in investing, aiming to close the gender gap in finance.

Will Thorndike, author of "The Outsiders" and founder of Housatonic Partners, shares insights into successful capital allocation. He discusses iconic CEOs like Warren Buffett and their contrarian views on dividends and acquisitions. The conversation highlights the importance of strategic decision-making in private equity, the value of flexibility in leadership, and the evolving landscape of search funds. Thorndike also reflects on his experiences with Asurion and the growth of recurring revenue in investments, emphasizing the significance of partnerships in driving success.

Josh Wolfe, co-founder of Lux Capital, shares his deep insights into the world of technology investments. He discusses the essential traits of effective CEOs and how storytelling can define leadership success. The conversation dives into the rising concerns of illiquidity in markets and innovative business models that challenge traditional norms. Wolfe also explores the intersection of sci-fi and real-world innovations, emphasizing how emerging technologies can reshape humanity. The episode is a fascinating blend of investment strategies and philosophical reflections.

In this engaging conversation, Katherine Collins, head of sustainable investing at Putnam Investments and author of *The Nature of Investing*, dives into the intricacies of ESG and impact investing. She discusses the challenges of incorporating social factors into investment strategies and emphasizes the need for diverse data sources. Katherine also highlights the importance of genuine sustainability efforts versus compliance, and advocates for investment strategies inspired by nature. Her insights provide a fresh perspective on navigating the evolving landscape of responsible investing.

Geoffrey Batt runs a significant capital pool in Iraqi stocks through his firm Euphrates, specializing in contrarian investments. He shares insights on earning transformational returns in volatile markets, emphasizing the importance of long-term vision and stable investor bases. Geoffrey recounts his journey exploring Iraq’s equity market and memorable meetings with local companies. He also discusses the revival of Baghdad Softdrinks, illustrating the resilience and emerging opportunities within Iraq’s evolving economy despite its challenges.

Brian Singerman, a partner at Founders Fund, shares his insights on investing in exceptional founders. He highlights the importance of assessing company moats and market potential. Singerman emphasizes that a successful investment strategy requires continuous practice and intuition. He discusses the evolving landscape of technology and its impact on investment decisions. Additionally, he shares valuable advice on the qualities he looks for in founders, exploring the significance of personal connections and diverse market opportunities.

Michael Mauboussin, an author and professor renowned for his insights on markets and investing, joins to discuss key sources of alpha. He emphasizes understanding who is on the other side of every trade. The conversation dives into behavioral finance, revealing common errors investors make and how to capitalize on them. They explore the dynamics of stock buybacks, the growing role of EBITDA in valuations, and the influences of motivational narratives on decision-making. This engaging session is packed with actionable strategies for navigating market complexities.

Annie Duke, a world champion poker player and decision-making authority, shares her insights on improving decision-making in high-stakes scenarios. She breaks down decision components like values and beliefs, emphasizing the importance of evaluating the decision process over outcomes. Duke discusses the power of identity and group dynamics, revealing how group influence can shape individual choices. With practical strategies for self-reflection and cognitive bias reduction, listeners gain tools to enhance their decision quality and foster personal growth.

Michael Mayer, entrepreneur and founder of Bottomless, shares insights on the intersection of pseudonymity and social capital. He discusses how his online identities have helped him grow personally and professionally. Mayer's innovative coffee subscription model features a smart scale that optimizes coffee orders based on consumption, revolutionizing the coffee experience. He also delves into the challenges of co-founding a business with a spouse and critiques traditional social media, proposing a new model for meaningful engagement.

Peter is a geopolitical strategist who combines expertise in demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to assess an uncertain future. Before founding his own strategy firm, Peter helped develop the analytical models for Stratfor, one of the world’s premier private intelligence companies.   I came across Peter via his books the Accidental Superpower and the Absent Superpower. We discuss America’s changing place in the world and four additional countries poised to do well in the future. Spoiler alert: he believes the U.S. is particularly well positioned.  While we don’t discuss equity markets per se, all of what we talk about will obviously impact companies across the world for the remainder of our careers. Please enjoy our conversation. For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Show Notes 1:32 - (First Question) – His model of the world 4:05 – What makes for a strategically advantaged country 5:35 – History of the Bretton Woods agreement and the order that it created 8:47 – The security apparatus that has made globalization of manufacturing possible 12:04 – The US’s pullback from being the naval police of global trade             12:08 – The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America 14:57 – How energy has played into America’s disinterest abroad 21:52 – Moving towards global disorder 24:55 – Characterizing factors that will impact countries in any collapse 27:38 – How this manifest in physical conflict 32:44 – How the new world order will end the ease of innovation we are accustomed to today 34:13 – What gets the US to reengage before this new world order 38:08 – Demographics that make a country prepared for this, Japan as an example 40:57 – A look at China 43:59 – What the story is about Argentina 45:52 – How North America fares based on their geography and relationships 49:50 – The trader wars that are currently ongoing 52:17 – US political system 56:15 – Most important policy issues moving forward 58:27 – His view on American infrastructure 1:00:33 – Technologies that interest him the most 1:02:55 – What he is watching most closely in his research, starting with media 1:05:59 – What are and should be the countries of the future 1:06:55 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Peter 1:07:32 – Favorite places he’s been   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag