The Writ

Two hotly-contested byelections and a Liberal leadership race that is heating up — politics in Ontario isn’t taking a break for the summer!So, joining me to break down all the latest from the OLP leadership contest and what to watch in the upcoming byelections in Kanata–Carleton and Scarborough–Guildwood is Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer.Plus: Join me at 9 PM on July 27 for a livestream of the byelection results as they come in. You can find the livestream here. See you there!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

It’s the height of summer and that isn’t always when lots of political news is produced. So, I invited Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to join me for a summer mailbag episode, answering some of the questions we got from listeners and readers, including (but not limited to!):* What’s the lowest the Liberals could go and still have a chance win the most seats?* Will there be a federal election in 2023?* What will bring the CAQ down, if anything can?* Who will win the Ontario Liberal leadership?* What were the worst calls Philippe and I ever made?As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Caucus revolts, ministerial resignations, cabinet shuffles, leadership challenges and the threat of an early election — you don’t need to go much further than New Brunswick to get your fill of political drama.Premier Blaine Higgs has been facing down opponents within his caucus and within his party over the last few weeks. The spark was a proposed change to laws regarding LGBTQ students but the turmoil goes far deeper than that, as some members of his Progressive Conservative government and party denounce his top-down, autocratic style. A few of the renegades were shuffled out of cabinet but a leadership challenge is in the works.It isn’t clear how much longer this can go on without the pressure release of an election.To try to explain what’s happening, I’m joined this week by Michelle LeBlanc, journalist with Radio-Canada Acadie, and Jacques Poitras, New Brunswick provincial affairs reporter for the CBC.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.Are you a subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

With the House of Commons adjourned for the summer, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government is now heading into the back half of its four year mandate. Where do things stand at this midway point, as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives move ahead in the polls and Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats prop up the Liberals in the minority parliament?Joining me this week to take stock of the state of federal politics nearly two years after the last election is the CBC’s Aaron Wherry.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

With Saint-Jean-Baptiste Day now upon us, I invited Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com to join me for a little game — a draft of Quebec’s best (and most notorious?) premiers!Who makes it No. 1? Which premier gets drafted higher than of the scouts had him?After listening, let us know which team of premiers you think is the best team! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Polls are ubiquitous in Canadian election campaigns, but that wasn’t always the case. Before political polling arrived in the 1940s, journalists and politicians had to go about gauging public opinion differently. But once polls made their way here, they became an indispensable part of Canadian politics.Joining me this week to tell the story of the development of polling in Canada is Christopher Adams, rector of St. Paul’s College and adjunct professor in political studies at the University of Manitoba. Chris has worked in the industry and is now working on a history of polling.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

With just a few weeks to go before Toronto chooses its next mayor, the polls are giving a big lead to Olivia Chow, former NDP MP and the third-place finisher in 2014’s mayoral race.So, is this election Olivia Chow’s to lose?To set up this last stage of the mayoral campaign, I’m joined again by Matt Elliott, a contributing columnist to the Toronto Star and publisher of the City Hall Watcher newsletter.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Danielle Smith’s United Conservatives secured a majority government in Monday’s Alberta election, defeating Rachel Notley’s New Democrats. How did the UCP’s win come about, what does it mean for politics in Alberta and what are the implications for Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre?Separately, what are the politics surrounding David Johnston’s inquiry into foreign interference in Canada’s elections?Back on the podcast to break it all down, I’m joined by the political pollsters: Dan Arnold, Andrew Enns and James Valcke.Dan, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.Andrew is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.James is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

We’re down to the final days of Alberta’s election campaign and it could be close. Will Danielle Smith’s United Conservatives hold on for re-election, or will Rachel Notley’s New Democrats mount a comeback?First, I’m joined by The Globe and Mail’s Calgary-based columnist Kelly Cryderman to discuss how this campaign has unfolded. Then, Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com is back to go over the electoral map with me.Finally, on Monday night starting at 8 PM MT / 10 PM ET you can join me for some live analysis of the results as the votes are counted.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

There will be four federal byelections on June 19 in the ridings of Winnipeg South Centre, Portage–Lisgar, Oxford and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount, all four of them solid seats for the incumbent Conservatives and Liberals.But in addition to being a mid-term test for all parties, the byelections will also have a few party leaders on the ballot: PPC leader Maxime Bernier in Portage–Lisgar and Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount.So, what should we expect in these byelections? Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada is back to discuss these four races, as well as to set some over/under lines to watch on byelection night!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe