The Writ

This week on The Numbers, we parse through the results of Monday's byelections in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. Is it End Times for the Liberals? We also grade ourselves on our Byelection Draft and Over/Under choices. Plus, a confidence vote is on the docket next week. What do we make of the Bloc's early positioning — and what about Pablo Rodriguez's decision to make the jump to provincial politics?We also take a look at some new polls out of British Columbia and Thursday’s writ drop in New Brunswick.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The fall political season could prove to be a tumultuous one, as the end of the deal between Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP opens up the possibility of a snap election and ensures that brinksmanship will be the order of the day, at least until that vote happens — something that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives will try to force as soon as possible.But a potential catalyst for upheaval will come very soon on Monday, as voters go to the polls in the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections, contests in which all three parties, plus the Bloc Québécois, have something at stake.To set us up for what should be a fascinating few months, I’m joined this week by the pollster panel.Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.Join us at 9:30 PM ET / 8:30 PM CT on September 16 for our livestream of the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona byelections. You will find the livestream here.THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, which is available for Patreon members here, it's all about the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections. We set our over/under lines and make some predictions about the outcomes. We also chat about some of the new polls out this past week that put the Conservatives at a new high of 45%, and the NDP at a new low.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jagmeet Singh's decision to end the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. What does it mean for the upcoming byelections — and when will the general election be? We also discuss what new polls say about the impact of BCU's withdrawal from the upcoming B.C. election campaign.In the mailbag, we answer a listener question on how a Trump election win may or may not change Canada's political landscape. Then, Philippe tests me against a machine in the Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

With just a few weeks to go before the writ drop, the next election in British Columbia was thrown on its head Wednesday when Kevin Falcon announced he was withdrawing B.C. United from the race — and endorsing John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives. What does this mean for the NDP and Premier David Eby’s chances of re-election, as well as for the future of the once formidable, now former, B.C. Liberals?The news broke just after Richard Zussman of Global News and I had recorded an episode about the state of B.C. politics on Wednesday morning. Once it emerged that everything had changed, we had to get together again to re-record. And with B.C. political news breaking so fast, I couldn’t wait until the usual Friday to put this episode up in your feeds. THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, which will be available for Patreon members on Thursday here, Philippe and I will break down the implications of this move on B.C. politics. We’ll also have lots of new poll numbers to discuss, as usual!In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

It's poll-a-palooza on The Numbers this week, as we tackle five federal polls, two B.C. polls and new numbers out of Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Alberta. Also, there's a snap byelection call in Ontario that took us by surprise.We compare caucus sizes in response to a listener question, and then Philippe has a Quiz on historical premiers.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffresLES CHIFFRES: Une vraie course au PLQ ? Philippe et Éric discutent des plus récents chiffres fédéraux au Québec, y compris de certains sondages qui placent les conservateurs et le Bloc nez à nez. Au-delà des chiffres individuels, quelles ont été les tendances au cours de l'été ? Nous discutons aussi de la course à la chefferie du PLQ qui compte maintenant deux candidats officiels, ainsi que deux (ou trois ?) candidatures potentielles. Le PLQ aura-t-il donc une « vraie course » à la chefferie ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The closest thing to a dynasty in Canadian politics is in Saskatchewan, where the Saskatchewan Party has governed since 2007. First under Brad Wall and now under Scott Moe, the Sask. Party has dominated in election after election, relegating the New Democrats to the opposition.But polls suggest the race in Saskatchewan could be the closest in decades. Could the dynasty come to an end when the province goes to the polls in October?On this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by Adam Hunter, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Regina, to look ahead to Saskatchewan’s upcoming campaign.THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I discuss the latest poll showing the Conservatives narrowly ahead in Quebec. We also chat about a new poll from British Columbia and the launch of the Canadian Future Party, we answer listener questions and put our wits to the test with a Quiz!In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

What are the most likely results of the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections? We rank the potential outcomes — with a draft! We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for all parties (especially the NDP), the prospect of Pablo Rodriguez as PLQ leader, and some new polling numbers out of Saskatchewan.In our mailbag, we discuss what a Canadian VP sweepstakes would look like, plus Philippe tests me with a Prairie-themed Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Will Blaine Higgs and his Progressive Conservatives win a third consecutive election when New Brunswickers are called to the polls in October (or, perhaps, sooner), or will Susan Holt score a win for her Liberals in a national climate that is turning against her party’s brand?On this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by Jacques Poitras, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Fredericton, to break down the upcoming campaign in New Brunswick, one of three provinces scheduled to hold elections in the coming months.THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we discuss the two byelections that have been set for Sept. 16 in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. The Liberals are defending the first and the NDP the second. Between Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh, who has the most to lose?In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

A byelection call looms in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in a contest that could prove a stiff test for the Liberals, as the NDP and Bloc target what has been a safe Liberal seat in Montreal. Plus, another call could come in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona, where the Conservatives will put the NDP on the defensive.(Note: the Liberals announced their candidate for Elmwood–Transcona shortly after we recorded.)This week, we also chat about the announcements from Seamus O'Regan and Francis Drouin that they won't be running for re-election and answer listener questions from the mailbag — and provide a Margin of Error 101 refresher course. Then, Philippe tests me with a Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that gauges just how recognizable Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders and top figures in the Liberal Party really are to Canadians. We also chat about the latest federal numbers, the ubiquitous Mark Carney rumours, the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection and provincial polling out of British Columbia and Ontario.In the mailbag, we answer a question about whether or not we can calculate the odds of big swings happening in future elections. Then, Philippe is put to the test with an impromptu Quiz.Regular episodes of The Writ Podcast will be returning soon!To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe