The fall political season could prove to be a tumultuous one, as the end of the deal between Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP opens up the possibility of a snap election and ensures that brinksmanship will be the order of the day, at least until that vote happens — something that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives will try to force as soon as possible.

But a potential catalyst for upheaval will come very soon on Monday, as voters go to the polls in the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections, contests in which all three parties, plus the Bloc Québécois, have something at stake.

To set us up for what should be a fascinating few months, I’m joined this week by the pollster panel.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

Join us at 9:30 PM ET / 8:30 PM CT on September 16 for our livestream of the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona byelections. You will find the livestream here.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, which is available for Patreon members here, it's all about the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections. We set our over/under lines and make some predictions about the outcomes. We also chat about some of the new polls out this past week that put the Conservatives at a new high of 45%, and the NDP at a new low.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe