The Writ

This week on The Writ podcast:In the news* Annamie Paul resigns as Green Party leader.* The Liberals won the mail ballots — and it could have mattered a lot had the election been closer. Read more here.* The polls (mostly) nailed the election, again. Read more here.Polls of the week* A post-election “exit poll” from Léger shows us what motivated people to vote for each party.Questions and answers* What’s the value of reporting the national numbers in polls or election results?* What were some big misses in the polls in Canadian elections?* What are the odds anybody other than the Greens tries to replace their leader?#EveryElectionProject* The 1937 Ontario election, won by the Ontario Liberals under the hard-livin’, Mackenzie King-hatin’, Maurice Duplessis-lovin’ Mitch Hepburn.If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Radiohead:Thanks for listening! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ podcast, Aaron Wherry, senior writer with the CBC and author of Promise and Peril: Justin Trudeau in Power, joins me to discuss the results of Monday’s election.In the news* Will this have been the last election for Trudeau and what will he do with this next term in office?* The Conservatives and the decisions they need to make about where to go next with the party — more to the centre or back to the right.* Whether the New Democrats should (or can be) satisfied with their modest gains.* Maxime Bernier and the future of the People’s Party.* What the durability of the Bloc Québécois, as well as other parties, means for the future of minority governments in Canada.* Also: does Baden-Württemberg have a great electoral system, or the greatest electoral system?Questions and answers* Did the People’s Party actually cost the Conservatives any seats?* What should we make of the Greens’ victory in Kitchener Centre?* Biggest upset of the night.#EveryElectionProject* The 1965 Canadian federal election, which returned a parliament that looked nearly the same as the one elected in 1963.If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.This week’s podcast title musical inspiration, from the inimitable Roy Orbison:Thanks for listening! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ podcast, Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada joins me to pore over the electoral map with only a few days to go before the votes are cast and the ballots are counted. We take a cross-country tour of all the country’s battlegrounds.Then, we play a game of over/under that you’ll want to listen to.Finally, on this week’s instalment of the #EveryElectionProject, I’m finishing up the series on recent elections by casting back all the way to the 2019 Canadian federal election.SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT!On Monday night, I hope you’ll join me for my 2021 Federal Election Livestream on YouTube! The show will start at around 6:30 PM ET and will run until the wee hours of the morning when, hopefully, we’ll have a result. I’ve invited some friends and special guests who will be popping by throughout the night.You can find the stream here.It’ll be a lot of fun and I hope to see you there!I’ll have a special bonus episode for subscribers up early (early) Monday morning after the last polls have been published.Until then, thanks for listening!This week’s podcast title musical inspiration: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ podcast:In the news* David Coletto is the CEO of Abacus Data and hosts inFocus with David Coletto. He joins me to discuss how the race has unfolded so far and how the Liberal-NDP switchers are the key electorate that could decide the outcome of the election.* Coletto also describes the PPC’s emerging voting coalition, what is contributing to their rise and whether their vote will turn out on election day.Questions and answers (with David)* How to explain the difference in the PPC’s support between online and IVR polls?* How do pollsters weed out dishonest respondents and avoid being tripped out by demographic unicorns?* What’s the best way to estimate who will turn out to vote?Polls of the week* A run-down of where the federal parties stand. Read more in Wednesday’s article on The Writ.#EveryElectionProject* The 2015 Canadian federal election.This week’s podcast title musical inspiration:If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.Thanks for listening! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ podcast:In the news* Corey Hogan can be heard regularly on The Strategists podcast. He’s also a former head of communications for the Alberta governments under Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney, and is now a vice-president at the University of Calgary. We discuss the dynamics of the campaign, how voters, the media and political parties digest polls and how leaders prepare for debates.Polls of the week* A run-down of where the federal parties stand. Read more in Wednesday’s article on The Writ.* The potential impact of Thursday’s French-language debate.* A look at how many candidates are running — or, if you’re the Greens, not running — in this election.Questions and answers* What’s the value of asking people who they think will win?* Is the PPC impacting the Conservative campaign?* What’s my approach when I watch debates?#EveryElectionProject* The 2011 Canadian federal election.This week’s podcast title musical inspiration:If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.Thanks for listening! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ podcast:In the news* Sabrina Nanji covers Ontario’s provincial politics in her newsletter, Queen’s Park Observer. She joins me to discuss how the federal election is viewed from the provincial capital, and how Ontario’s parties are getting involved — or staying away from — the federal campaign.* As a special offer for readers and listeners of The Writ, you can subscribe to Queen’s Park Observer and get 25% off the subscription rate for the next year. Just enough to get you through the 2022 Ontario election!Polls of the week* A run-down of where the federal parties stand. Read more in Wednesday’s article on The Writ.Questions and answers* Should we pay attention to the polls beyond Ontario?* With the polls as they are, could Maxime Bernier have qualified for the debate ?* What’s up with the “Big Mo” in election campaigns?#EveryElectionProject* The 2008 Canadian federal election.This week’s podcast title musical inspiration:If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here. Thanks for listening! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ podcast:In the news* The CBC’s Aaron Wherry joins me to discuss the first week of the federal election campaign and offers some hot takes on the results in Nova Scotia.Polls of the week* A run-down of where the federal parties stand. Read more in today’s article on The Writ.Questions and answers* What happened with the polls in Nova Scotia?* Why does the NDP struggle to secure an enduring foothold in urban centres outside of Western Canada?* Will the other party leaders bring up Annamie Paul’s leadership issues at the debate?#EveryElectionProject* The 2006 Canadian federal election.This week’s podcast title musical inspiration:If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. Thanks for listening! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ podcast:In the news* Liberal incumbents retire and are quickly replaced by some local stars.* A jurisdictional and political floor-crossing in Saskatchewan.* Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister says adiós.Polls of the week* Abacus Data and the Angus Reid Institute release their last pre-election polls.* Research Co. gives us a deep dive in British Columbia.* Narrative Research on the state of the provincial campaign in Nova Scotia.Questions and answers* When will the new federal boundaries be redrawn, and what changes should we expect?* Why is Jason Kenney struggling?* Whither the undecideds?#EveryElectionProject* The 1944 Quebec provincial election.* Sources: Godbout by Jean-Guy Genest, Dictionary of Canadian Biography: Duplessis, Maurice Le Noblet, by Michel Sarra-Bournet, election-atlas.ca by J.P. Kirby.This week’s podcast title musical inspiration:If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. Thanks for listening! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ podcast:In the news* Speculation has reached a fever pitch that the election call is literally days away.* Whenever the election is held, we might have to wait a few days before knowing what the result actually is. * The Conservatives raised the most money in the second quarter of 2021.Polls of the week* Léger, Abacus Data and the Angus Reid Institute: Three federal polls conducted in the last week have good news for the Liberals, but not necessarily great news.* Léger/Postmedia: The United Conservatives in Alberta are trailing behind the NDP (again).* Léger: It’s a Léger triple-play with a look at the latest numbers in Nova Scotia’s election campaign.Questions and answers* Why doesn’t Canada have exit polls?* If Trudeau wins another minority, does history say he’s toast?* How much do local issues matter?#EveryElectionProject* The 1867 Canadian federal election.* Sources: Dynasties and Interludes: Past and Present in Canadian Politics by Jon H. Pammett and Lawrence Leduc, Nation Maker: Sir John A. Macdonald: His Life, Our Times by Richard Gwyn and Joseph Howe, Volume II: The Briton Becomes Canadian, 1848-1873 by Murray Beck.If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. Thanks for listening! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ podcast:In the news* Nova Scotia’s election campaign rolls on, with a more gender-balanced and diverse slate of candidates.* Justin Trudeau and Erin O’Toole pay a visit to Atlantic Canada (separately, of course).* Update on the Green leadership situation, and a lesson learned.Polls of the week* Léger, Ipsos, EKOS and Innovative: Four federal polls hit the wires after a dearth of data.* Mainstreet Research: The first numbers out of the Nova Scotia campaign are good for Iain Rankin’s Liberals.Questions and answers* Do re-matches matter?* Does Derek Sloan matter?* Could the Green collapse hurt the Conservatives?* What’s the floor and ceiling for the Nova Scotia PCs and NDP?#EveryElectionProject* The 1999 Nova Scotia provincial election.* Sources: The Halifax Herald and election-atlas.ca by J.P. Kirby.If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. Thanks for listening! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe