Insight Myanmar

Episode #227: Nathan Ruser, a specialist at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), is an expert in geo-mapping. Building on his experience using satellite imagery to track human rights violations in areas like Syria and Shenzhen, Ruser has begun analyzing the unique nature of the conflict in Myanmar. Influenced by the country’s geographic and ethnic diversity, the clashes here defy conventional understanding, and Ruser has developed a numerical scale to map control levels, often having to assess the situation village-by-village. His methodology contrasts starkly with oversimplified media representations.Ruser employs ground reports to complement satellite imagery in creating a richer picture of conflict. For example, he has identified helicopter pads at nearly all junta bases, which illustrates their growing reliance on air support for supply and reinforcements. This, in turn, shows how they are perceived as an occupying force by locals. With the junta's diminishing ground control, they are taking a more defensive posture overall, in particular strengthening their urban strongholds, reminiscent to Ruser of the tactics Assad used in Syria. And now, Operation 1027 has further altered the landscape. Resistance forces are taking key locations, which he suggests could indicate a potential overall collapse of the military.Despite this, the junta’s air superiority and strategic defense of high terrain remain significant. Ruser’s analysis also underscores the West's missed opportunity to engage meaningfully with Myanmar's democratic revolution, hindered by a reluctance to intervene in civil conflicts post-Libya 2011, a stance that has rendered the Right to Protect (R2P) framework largely ineffective.In closing, Ruser wants to stress that we are now witnessing a sea change in the crisis taking shape before our eyes. “Thousands of kilometers in the sky, on a satellite looking down, you can see the change in tone of this conflict,” he says. “The idea that you can turn a country that has historically been a violent dictatorship into… a flourishing, progressive, great democracy; I think that's an opportunity!” Yet he points out this won’t follow a conventional trajectory as it goes forward. “There's not going to be a movement where there's a slow democratization of the country, where the military enables the country to become more democratic… It's a matter of the military winning or the military losing. Not putting your foot on either side is definitely a hindrance rather than a help.”

Episode #226: After the National League for Democracy (NLD) party’s landslide victory in 2015, Ko Ko Gyi remembers thinking to himself, “Okay, this is the time to retire from my activism, so let's just relax. I felt forced to retire." This is now a rueful memory as Ko Ko Gyi looks back over some of the key moments in his decades-long struggle for Myanmar’s freedom, and autonomy from military rule and brutality.  The trigger for his activism was in 1987 when the Burmese government suddenly invalidated currency notes, devastating the economy and propelling Ko Ko Gyi and his peers at the Rangoon Institute of Technology into action. The violent clashes with security forces that ensued, particularly the horrific night when peaceful protests were met with lethal force, ignited the 8888 Uprising. Ko Ko Gyi's journey led him to the Thai-Burma border, as the military dictatorship evolved into the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC). Uniting with ethnic militias like the Karen National Union (KNU), he fought for the regime's overthrow. In the fact of the army’s divide-and-conquer strategy and overwhelming military superiority, Ko Ko Gyi fled the country to continue to protest from abroad. He relocated to the United States in 1993, where he continued his advocacy. He thought the elections of 2015 might finally have ended the need for activism, but the 2021 coup dashed that hope. Today, his activism is multifaceted, involving organizing rallies, supporting diplomatic efforts, fundraising, and promoting innovative financial strategies like war bonds for the NUG. "We have voters' rights,” he says in closing, recognizing the power he now holds in possessing an American passport, “so we used those kinds of powers to approach the State Department. We definitely need the American people’s help, because…  the voice of the people is very powerful. [Getting support] not only from the Burmese diaspora, but also the American voices, is more powerful. So, please help Burma more effectively and to help end the terrorist regime!”

Episode #225: In this third part of the ongoing discussion with Jonathan Crowley, we delve deeper into his experiences as an Assistant Teacher in the S.N. Goenka tradition of Vipassana meditation. Jonathan starts off by saying how he was moved by his appointment as an assistant teacher, but also candidly describes how aspiring teachers learn the importance of feigning disinterest, creating a false ego around the process.Jonathan then reflects on the weight of officially representing the organization, and how he grappled with the unspoken messaging behind its mission. He notes a paradoxical dynamic where Goenka shunned the title of guru publicly, while the culture within the organization promotes him as the unquestioned authority.As Jonathan delved deeper into his practice and examined the organization's modus operandi, he began to see the “trojan horse” nature of the ten-day course format. By this, he means that it attracts students with open-handed encouragement and says they their own masters, yet funnels them into increasingly narrower scopes as they commit to the organization.Despite deriving many transformative benefits from the practice, Jonathan started feeling the weight of the excessive faith expectations. He realized how storytelling and mythmaking play a crucial role in reinforcing this faith, and closing off avenues for questioning and critical thought.

Episode #224: Saw Htee Char, working under a pseudonym for safety reasons, has been heavily involved in Myanmar since the devastating Cyclone Nargis in 2008. Recognizing a significant gap in accessible, reliable information about the conflict in Myanmar, Saw Htee Char established the Substack page, Burma Coup Resistance Notes. Contrary to the often simplistic and misleading interpretations of the conflict as an internal issue with blame on both sides, Saw Htee Char presents a starkly different picture. He exposes the brutal and sadistic nature of the military regime's efforts to monopolize power, and highlights the desperate struggle of the Burmese people for a return to the semblance of democracy they experienced between 2015 and 2020.Saw Htee Char's analysis delves into the military's strategic and operational failures. Despite its significant manpower and armaments, the military has consistently lost territory and failed to suppress the ethnic militias it has faced for decades. They now face widespread resistance that has grown in sophistication and determination, challenging the military's control even in traditionally Bamar-majority regions. Saw Htee Char points to Operation 1027 and subsequent actions that have fueled momentum for the resistance, leading to a progressively shrinking sphere of control for the military. The junta’s reliance on air power, he explains, is a sign of desperation rather than strength, drawing parallels with historical lessons on the limitations of air superiority in achieving control without effective ground forces.“I just consider this this story so inspiring,” he says in closing. “And you also have to acknowledge that the people of Myanmar have received very little support from outside! They've been left to themselves and they've done it anyway, and that's even more incredible, given that they've got some powerful countries against them: China, Russia, India, Thailand, those who have supplied weapons to the junta or diplomatic recognition, even United Nations agencies that have played into the hands of the junta... So the people of Myanmar have carried through the struggle on their own against some very powerful foreign forces. And when they win, this victory will belong entirely to them. They will not owe anybody anything!”

Episode #223: Raised in a Myanmar military compound, Thinzar Shunlei Yi grew up sheltered from her nation's realities. University life exposed her to diverse ethnic narratives, challenging her military-centric worldview. Embracing democracy through literature and the internet, she grappled with guilt over the military's oppression. Her activism took shape through protests and performance art, even embodying a displaced Shan person to promote empathy among the Bamar majority.The 2021 coup unified various groups against the military, and Thinzar saw this as an opportunity to advocate for a federal democracy. Her Buddhist faith guided her ethical activism, striving to separate true teachings from the military's nationalist propaganda. Her public portrayal of a military victim gained international support. Despite personal sacrifices, Thinzar's journey from a soldier's daughter to a prominet activist symbolizes a profound shift towards a hopeful future for Myanmar.“You see all your close friends being tortured, sometimes killed, and also different stories coming out from the ground every day, we have to deal with these news,” Thinzar Shunlei Yi says in closing. “In the morning, you will be really sad and depressed, you don't know what to do, you're not in a position to control things; and in the evening, you will be motivated again, because you see the whole picture of what the revolution is about, and still people are striving, and this is for the good for the country.”

Episode #222: Davin Hartanto, an experienced migration agent, discusses changes in Australia's student visa strategy, particularly how it is affecting Myanmar nationals after the coup. The changes are intended to verify applicants' intentions to return home after studies, a problematic criterion for those from conflict zones. Hartanto explains the discretionary power of immigration officers, which has resulted in a high visa refusal rate for Burmese applicants, which escalated notably after the coup. He suggests a correlation between visa rejections and Australia's prioritization of Myanmar nationals already in-country.Hartanto criticizes the politics of immigration, with the Labour Government accusing the previous Coalition Government of running a broken system, particularly concerning the Genuine Temporary Entrant visas. Despite proposed reforms, specifics remain unlegislated, leaving many in limbo.Hartano notes a discrepancy in the treatment of Burmese asylum seekers compared to those from other conflict zones. Hartanto points to the importance of advocacy and unity to influence immigration policy, and highlights the role of political processes in these decisions. Yet as frustrating as this can seem on one hand, Hartanto also sees a silver lining in the form of greater activism, which can then impact policy.“As much as we hope, and really want Australian government to do more, they're limited by the migration program quota [and] all these processes are really driven by the political process,” he says. “I understand and appreciate that the issues of immigration law is never as simple as it seems… My message to listeners is to unite, to keep raising this awareness, keep talking about it, keep sharing experiences amongst others, and keep helping each other.”

Episode #221: Our guest, Lorenzo Colombo, talks about the great Italian monk, U Lokānatha. Born Salvatore Cioffi near Naples in 1897, his family temporarily moved to New York due to economic difficulties. Salvatore embarked on a spiritual quest early in life. Though his family were devout Roman Catholics, Salvatore initially explored positivism but eventually found himself drawn to Buddhism, quite unusual for a Westerner at that time.Salvatore abandoned his family and possessions, venturing to Asia in search of spiritual fulfillment. His quest took him through India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and finally to Burma in 1925, where he ordained as a Buddhist monk, adopting the name U Lokānatha. In the remote regions of northern Burma, he engaged in intense meditation, developing supernatural abilities and a deep understanding of Buddhist teachings.U Lokānatha's journey didn't end there; he toured the US and Europe, introducing Buddhism as a practical and spiritual path for the common person. He connected Buddhist principles with science, politics, and psychology, emphasizing inner peace as a means to achieve world peace. His life touched a great many people, including such luminaries as Sayagyi U Ba Khin, Webu Sayadaw, B.R. Ambedkar, the Thai Royal Family, Munindra, S.N. Goenka, Sun Lun Sayadaw, General Aung San, the Sri Lankan head of state, and Mahasi Sayadaw, while also trying to even convert Mussolini and the Pope to Buddhism!Despite facing challenges, U Lokānatha's unwavering determination and commitment to sharing the Dhamma left a lasting impact on the world. His story continues to inspire those on their own spiritual journeys, highlighting the transformative power of spiritual exploration and inner peace.

Episode #220: Elliott Prasse-Freeman, author of the recent book “Rights Refused,” joins the podcast for a wide-ranging, erudite discussion.Prasse-Freeman first distinguishes between two kinds of anti-regime acts. One he calls an act of “refusal.” In other words, one avoids direct confrontation and instead supports various prosocial, community-based society initiatives around things the state is unwilling or unable to support. The other he calls an act of “resistance,” when it the time is ripe to physically protest.Speaking about the culture of sacrifice that has evolved in Myanmar, especially since the coup, he sees Burmese activists carefully considering which pathway of protest is most appropriate in a given situation, while knowing that at some point, great personal sacrifice will eventually be demanded of them. It requires careful consideration to decide “when is the culture of sacrifice is truly sacrificial for the people, and when is it actually just for your own glory.” the years.Another area Prasse-Freeman explores is the concept of “rights,” which is different than they are understood in the West. In Myanmar, they are more often understood as “opportunities,” as opposed to fundamental human privileges safeguarded by a society or nation.In other words, having “rights” is not understood as a fundamental condition that all people should enjoy, but a zero-sum game where communities compete against each other for finite resources. More marginalized populations, such as the country’s ethnic minorities, must compete the hardest—and against each other—to get even a small slice of the remaining pie.In closing, he says: “When you don't ever presuppose you have rights in the first place, you never get caught in that downward spiral of demobilization. You know that if you want something, you have to go out and create it! So it takes a lot of work, but it can also be hopeful at the same time.”

The Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS) in Washington DC leverages public data to uncover illicit activities linked to global security threats and human rights abuses. As our guest Savanna Slaughter explains, her team focuses on natural resource security, wildlife crimes, and national security concerns. In Myanmar, they have been investigating the junta's military funding and illicit financial flows, including crony financing.However, sourcing data poses significant challenges, especially in Myanmar, where corporate activities are often shrouded in secrecy. C4ADS relies on public data, leaks, and informants to decipher complex networks. The team also utilizes digitized data and extensive cross-referencing with social media to construct clearer profiles of their subjects.Investigating illicit financial operations involves tracing shell companies and obscured transactions, often requiring a mix of diligent research, data analysis, and sometimes luck or insights from criminal probes. Slaughter mentions the constant emergence of shell companies exacerbates their work, making their task akin to playing “Whack-A-Mole.”“Moving forward with this is going to require a lot more innovation,” Slaughter says in closing, “in terms of identifying companies of interest, perhaps working to develop some screening lists, or building out directors of interest and combining corporate data in a new way to form screening lists for shell companies and things like that.”

Episode #219: “The whole military is fragile. The military is collapsing,” says Kyaw Zaw, the spokesperson for the National Unity Government. “This is an unprecedented time, and a turning point in this revolution. It shows that we are winning, and when we are fighting together, then the military is collapsing. When the military fails, then this revolution will succeed!”Despite the pre-coup perception of Myanmar's military might, corruption and defections have significantly weakened it. Battalions are undermanned, while the NUG provides for defectors' families, aiming to rebuild the nation.Concerning Operation 1027, Kyaw Zaw highlights the display of unity and close coordination amongst diverse groups in Myanmar. He envisions a transition from dictatorship to federal democracy, a system change backed by meticulous planning and broad cooperation.He appreciates Western support but expresses disappointment in the lack of sanctions on jet fuel, as the military, bolstered by Russian aid, continues airstrikes. He hopes for greater UN and ASEAN involvement to curb Russian support and advocates for No Fly Zones or defense systems to protect civilians.He also criticizes the UN's approach to humanitarian aid, which he claims bolsters military resources instead of reaching those in need. Kyaw Zaw remains optimistic that post-military rule will not lead to civil war, but ta unified, peaceful Myanmar focused on building a federal democracy. He stresses that the resistance is already laying the groundwork for a new charter and transitional government, with plans for a new Central Bank to revive the economy, highlighting Myanmar's potential for a democratic future.