Insight Myanmar

Anthony Davis, a seasoned analyst deeply immersed in the nuances of insurgency and military affairs in the Asia-Pacific, including Myanmar, sits down with us today. He begins by articulating the palpable and sweeping resolve for change he sees across Burmese society— a collective epiphany that transcends ethnic lines and generations. And it isn't merely a repudiation of military despotism; it's a profound societal transformation, signaling a revolutionary tide reshaping every aspect of Burmese life.International perceptions, however, seem misaligned with this reality. They mostly fail to grasp the magnitude of what Davis does not hesitate to call a “revolution.” This has led to tepid and conventional responses at odds with the seismic shifts occurring within Myanmar. Davis argues that true revolutions defy containment and negotiation— they demand acknowledgment and robust engagement, something the world has been reluctant to provide.Complicating the picture, however, is the absence of a revolutionary nucleus in Myanmar. As a spontaneous uprising, it lacks centralized direction, leaving a disparate and autonomous array of ethnic armed organizations along with a national government-in-exile to wrestle with the challenge of unifying the fragmented resistance.Despite the remarkable successes of the recent Operation 1027, which shattered the myth of the military's invincibility, Davis tempers any premature declarations of the regime's demise. He recognizes the strategic recalibrations of Myanmar's neighbors, who may intensify support for the military, perceiving its vulnerability as a call to bolster their support rather than abandon it.“Everybody realizes that this revolution is about putting an end to a morally bankrupt regime! And this is a regime which needs to be shown the back door of history. I just hope and pray that the courage and resilience that population the vast majority of the population in Myanmar has displayed over the last three years can be sustained in the years to come.”

Episode #230: “Unfortunately, in 2020, after the NLD won a landslide election, there was a military coup. And [then] the PDF resistance started. I took part in the resistance as I had years before, but there is a difference this time, too,” explains Nway.Inspired by his mother, an active participant in politics since Ne Win's 1962 coup, Nway's involvement in the resistance included clandestine communication with Aung San Suu Kyi during her detention and risky efforts to deliver messages to imprisoned allies, among many other important tasks.Despite the supposed democratic transition post-2010, Nway criticizes this period as superficial, with the 2008 Constitution maintaining military dominance. He rebuked international pressure for elections as a facade of democracy, emphasizing the need for genuine systemic change. The most recent coup escalated his activism, compelling his support for armed resistance and relocation to Mae Sot for safety. Nway also highlights the intricate relationship between Buddhism and politics in Myanmar, acknowledging the tension between nationalistic and progressive monks within the context of the country's struggle for democracy and the military's manipulation of religion to maintain power.“If we win the revolution, the international community will see a very civilized society in Burma, which will be very active in promoting peace for the whole world,” Nway says in closing. “But if the junta wins, you will have a society which believes in the stone age. So, I would like to request of you, please understand the feeling of people of Burma! We left our country, we want to be like you, we want our kids to be like your kids, to go to school and also we want to sleep with our family like you want to sleep with your family. That is why we are trying to get rid of the military in our political system. This is not only for a party sake, not only for an ethnicity sake, it is for all the people of Burma and also the people of the world.”

Episode #229: Leon Kennedy's life is a chronicle of personal struggle. Growing up in an era of historical significance, his parents were heavily involved in the Civil Rights Movement, with figures like Martin Luther King Jr. and Rosa Parks frequent visitors to his grandparent's home. But when his parents divorced, the pain and the absence of a male role model led him down a path of rebellion despite the noble influences that had surrounded him. His mom sent him to an all-white high school, which in the South was very hard for an African-American, and a sense of fight was fueled in him.Leon's tumultuous youth saw him involved in a violent incident that nearly cost a man his life, resulting in Leon's incarceration. During his nine-year sentence, he embraced reading and music; upon his release, he sought normalcy through work and family life. However, the lure of his former life led to a bank robbery and another prison sentence. It was during his second incarceration that he discovered Vipassana meditation as taught by S.N. Goenka, which became a transformative force in his life.Leon's commitment to Vipassana continued despite the challenges posed by the prison system's resistance. He became a model prisoner, engaging deeply in self-help and meditation, eventually featured in a documentary. The practice of Vipassana allowed him to view the sacrifices of the Civil Rights leaders with even greater reverence, even as he connects it to the ongoing crisis in the Golden Land today. He served out his sentence, and is now a committed and involved advocate.He reflects on his spiritual connection to Myanmar in light of the country’s struggle. “How can [one] know what's going on [in Myanmar] and not reach back? That speaks to a different discounting level of your humanity. So whether it be Myanmar or any place in the world where there is oppression and suffering, this suffering and these injustices have been going on since the beginning of time. It is a blessing to be a part of that cloth or personhood where you can be a part of the solution, to be a light shining in a dark place, just a spark. So to my brothers and sisters in Myanmar and other places in the world, where they're being oppressed, slaughtered, genocide, starved, enslaved: Whether it be Vipassana, Christianity, Islam or whatever it is their special place where you find that strength and you can just hold out, and hope against hope.”

Episode #228: Jane Ferguson speaks about her recent book, Repossessing Shanland: Myanmar, Thailand, and a Nation-State Deferred. The book’s title refers to Shan attempts to reclaim their land and community after many years of conflict.Ferguson explains that contemporary concepts of identity—like “ethnicity”—are often mistakenly used to interpret the past. Rather, her study reveals the lack of pan-Shan identity, and that even the way the Shan practiced Buddhism varied from east to west. The British, with hopes of a more efficient Empire, tried unsuccessfully to get the Shan to unite.Many Shan migrants work in Thailand, where they eke out a living to send money back to their families and communities in Myanmar. Recent changes in Thai-Myanmar relations and plans to create economic zones, however, raise many questions about the future of this arrangement.During the transition years, the Shan were skeptical that the NLD would be supportive of their political and economic interests. Whether it was the elected government under Aung San Suu Kyi or the military regime that was in power, they often felt they were caught between a rock and a hard place.In closing, Ferguson says that there is this idea that, “Okay, now that the military is back in the saddle, everybody has a common enemy again, so they're more likely to unite… I've met some really creative people that have incredible ideas for building a better future. I can't begin to express the horrors and the biggest internal conflict that Myanmar is fighting since the time of World War Two, it's tremendous. But on the other hand, there are some pockets of real optimism.”

Episode #227: Nathan Ruser, a specialist at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), is an expert in geo-mapping. Building on his experience using satellite imagery to track human rights violations in areas like Syria and Shenzhen, Ruser has begun analyzing the unique nature of the conflict in Myanmar. Influenced by the country’s geographic and ethnic diversity, the clashes here defy conventional understanding, and Ruser has developed a numerical scale to map control levels, often having to assess the situation village-by-village. His methodology contrasts starkly with oversimplified media representations.Ruser employs ground reports to complement satellite imagery in creating a richer picture of conflict. For example, he has identified helicopter pads at nearly all junta bases, which illustrates their growing reliance on air support for supply and reinforcements. This, in turn, shows how they are perceived as an occupying force by locals. With the junta's diminishing ground control, they are taking a more defensive posture overall, in particular strengthening their urban strongholds, reminiscent to Ruser of the tactics Assad used in Syria. And now, Operation 1027 has further altered the landscape. Resistance forces are taking key locations, which he suggests could indicate a potential overall collapse of the military.Despite this, the junta’s air superiority and strategic defense of high terrain remain significant. Ruser’s analysis also underscores the West's missed opportunity to engage meaningfully with Myanmar's democratic revolution, hindered by a reluctance to intervene in civil conflicts post-Libya 2011, a stance that has rendered the Right to Protect (R2P) framework largely ineffective.In closing, Ruser wants to stress that we are now witnessing a sea change in the crisis taking shape before our eyes. “Thousands of kilometers in the sky, on a satellite looking down, you can see the change in tone of this conflict,” he says. “The idea that you can turn a country that has historically been a violent dictatorship into… a flourishing, progressive, great democracy; I think that's an opportunity!” Yet he points out this won’t follow a conventional trajectory as it goes forward. “There's not going to be a movement where there's a slow democratization of the country, where the military enables the country to become more democratic… It's a matter of the military winning or the military losing. Not putting your foot on either side is definitely a hindrance rather than a help.”

Episode #226: After the National League for Democracy (NLD) party’s landslide victory in 2015, Ko Ko Gyi remembers thinking to himself, “Okay, this is the time to retire from my activism, so let's just relax. I felt forced to retire." This is now a rueful memory as Ko Ko Gyi looks back over some of the key moments in his decades-long struggle for Myanmar’s freedom, and autonomy from military rule and brutality.  The trigger for his activism was in 1987 when the Burmese government suddenly invalidated currency notes, devastating the economy and propelling Ko Ko Gyi and his peers at the Rangoon Institute of Technology into action. The violent clashes with security forces that ensued, particularly the horrific night when peaceful protests were met with lethal force, ignited the 8888 Uprising. Ko Ko Gyi's journey led him to the Thai-Burma border, as the military dictatorship evolved into the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC). Uniting with ethnic militias like the Karen National Union (KNU), he fought for the regime's overthrow. In the fact of the army’s divide-and-conquer strategy and overwhelming military superiority, Ko Ko Gyi fled the country to continue to protest from abroad. He relocated to the United States in 1993, where he continued his advocacy. He thought the elections of 2015 might finally have ended the need for activism, but the 2021 coup dashed that hope. Today, his activism is multifaceted, involving organizing rallies, supporting diplomatic efforts, fundraising, and promoting innovative financial strategies like war bonds for the NUG. "We have voters' rights,” he says in closing, recognizing the power he now holds in possessing an American passport, “so we used those kinds of powers to approach the State Department. We definitely need the American people’s help, because…  the voice of the people is very powerful. [Getting support] not only from the Burmese diaspora, but also the American voices, is more powerful. So, please help Burma more effectively and to help end the terrorist regime!”

Episode #225: In this third part of the ongoing discussion with Jonathan Crowley, we delve deeper into his experiences as an Assistant Teacher in the S.N. Goenka tradition of Vipassana meditation. Jonathan starts off by saying how he was moved by his appointment as an assistant teacher, but also candidly describes how aspiring teachers learn the importance of feigning disinterest, creating a false ego around the process.Jonathan then reflects on the weight of officially representing the organization, and how he grappled with the unspoken messaging behind its mission. He notes a paradoxical dynamic where Goenka shunned the title of guru publicly, while the culture within the organization promotes him as the unquestioned authority.As Jonathan delved deeper into his practice and examined the organization's modus operandi, he began to see the “trojan horse” nature of the ten-day course format. By this, he means that it attracts students with open-handed encouragement and says they their own masters, yet funnels them into increasingly narrower scopes as they commit to the organization.Despite deriving many transformative benefits from the practice, Jonathan started feeling the weight of the excessive faith expectations. He realized how storytelling and mythmaking play a crucial role in reinforcing this faith, and closing off avenues for questioning and critical thought.

Episode #224: Saw Htee Char, working under a pseudonym for safety reasons, has been heavily involved in Myanmar since the devastating Cyclone Nargis in 2008. Recognizing a significant gap in accessible, reliable information about the conflict in Myanmar, Saw Htee Char established the Substack page, Burma Coup Resistance Notes. Contrary to the often simplistic and misleading interpretations of the conflict as an internal issue with blame on both sides, Saw Htee Char presents a starkly different picture. He exposes the brutal and sadistic nature of the military regime's efforts to monopolize power, and highlights the desperate struggle of the Burmese people for a return to the semblance of democracy they experienced between 2015 and 2020.Saw Htee Char's analysis delves into the military's strategic and operational failures. Despite its significant manpower and armaments, the military has consistently lost territory and failed to suppress the ethnic militias it has faced for decades. They now face widespread resistance that has grown in sophistication and determination, challenging the military's control even in traditionally Bamar-majority regions. Saw Htee Char points to Operation 1027 and subsequent actions that have fueled momentum for the resistance, leading to a progressively shrinking sphere of control for the military. The junta’s reliance on air power, he explains, is a sign of desperation rather than strength, drawing parallels with historical lessons on the limitations of air superiority in achieving control without effective ground forces.“I just consider this this story so inspiring,” he says in closing. “And you also have to acknowledge that the people of Myanmar have received very little support from outside! They've been left to themselves and they've done it anyway, and that's even more incredible, given that they've got some powerful countries against them: China, Russia, India, Thailand, those who have supplied weapons to the junta or diplomatic recognition, even United Nations agencies that have played into the hands of the junta... So the people of Myanmar have carried through the struggle on their own against some very powerful foreign forces. And when they win, this victory will belong entirely to them. They will not owe anybody anything!”

Episode #223: Raised in a Myanmar military compound, Thinzar Shunlei Yi grew up sheltered from her nation's realities. University life exposed her to diverse ethnic narratives, challenging her military-centric worldview. Embracing democracy through literature and the internet, she grappled with guilt over the military's oppression. Her activism took shape through protests and performance art, even embodying a displaced Shan person to promote empathy among the Bamar majority.The 2021 coup unified various groups against the military, and Thinzar saw this as an opportunity to advocate for a federal democracy. Her Buddhist faith guided her ethical activism, striving to separate true teachings from the military's nationalist propaganda. Her public portrayal of a military victim gained international support. Despite personal sacrifices, Thinzar's journey from a soldier's daughter to a prominet activist symbolizes a profound shift towards a hopeful future for Myanmar.“You see all your close friends being tortured, sometimes killed, and also different stories coming out from the ground every day, we have to deal with these news,” Thinzar Shunlei Yi says in closing. “In the morning, you will be really sad and depressed, you don't know what to do, you're not in a position to control things; and in the evening, you will be motivated again, because you see the whole picture of what the revolution is about, and still people are striving, and this is for the good for the country.”

Episode #222: Davin Hartanto, an experienced migration agent, discusses changes in Australia's student visa strategy, particularly how it is affecting Myanmar nationals after the coup. The changes are intended to verify applicants' intentions to return home after studies, a problematic criterion for those from conflict zones. Hartanto explains the discretionary power of immigration officers, which has resulted in a high visa refusal rate for Burmese applicants, which escalated notably after the coup. He suggests a correlation between visa rejections and Australia's prioritization of Myanmar nationals already in-country.Hartanto criticizes the politics of immigration, with the Labour Government accusing the previous Coalition Government of running a broken system, particularly concerning the Genuine Temporary Entrant visas. Despite proposed reforms, specifics remain unlegislated, leaving many in limbo.Hartano notes a discrepancy in the treatment of Burmese asylum seekers compared to those from other conflict zones. Hartanto points to the importance of advocacy and unity to influence immigration policy, and highlights the role of political processes in these decisions. Yet as frustrating as this can seem on one hand, Hartanto also sees a silver lining in the form of greater activism, which can then impact policy.“As much as we hope, and really want Australian government to do more, they're limited by the migration program quota [and] all these processes are really driven by the political process,” he says. “I understand and appreciate that the issues of immigration law is never as simple as it seems… My message to listeners is to unite, to keep raising this awareness, keep talking about it, keep sharing experiences amongst others, and keep helping each other.”