Unhedged

As regulators continue to worry about big and small banks, a lot of midsized companies are turning to private credit for loans. These loans are issued at floating interest rates, can be hard to value, and are one of the fastest growing asset classes. Today on the show, we ask: What could go wrong? We also go long the soldier who crossed into North Korea, and short the Economics Job Market Rumors forum.  Links:No, private credit markets aren’t really that bigFor a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferFollow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Last week’s US inflation numbers were surprisingly low, a very moderate 3 per cent. That could be due to an increasing supply of workers and goods. And it might *not* be due to the Federal Reserve’s tough talk over the past year. Today on the show, we reconsider everything we thought we knew about the past 18 months of inflation. Also, we go long corporate bond exchanges, and short… the dry martini. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferFollow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Seven stocks are powering the market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. How will they do in the second half of this year? Ethan Wu hosts as Rob ‘Value This’ Armstrong takes on Elaine ‘The Lex Flex’ Moore. In three rounds they pick their winners for the second half of 2023, and tell us why they chose them. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferFollow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The bond market dwarfs the stock market. But for more than a decade, equities have been the subject of conversation, and returns. Now that has flipped. Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu and Katie Martin take apart the bond market, and explain why it matters more than ever. Also, we go long Mark Zuckerberg and short … FinTwit. Links:- Taxi test for bonds signals end of the ‘Tina’ eraFor a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferFollow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markowitz, a titan of finance who won the 1990 Nobel prize in economics, died last month. He showed, in a mathematically rigorous way, that diversification could bring higher returns without higher risk. Alex Scaggs joins Ethan to explain how Markowitz’s work led to a way of thinking that has become ubiquitous in modern finance (and that has spawned legions of haters).Also, we go short economic forecasting and long Beyonce.Links:- Read Alex Scaggs’s Markowitz obit in the FT.For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferFollow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The persistence of working from home, the rise in interest rates, and job cuts in finance and tech all spell trouble for the owners of office buildings. How bad will it get? And will the troubles in commercial real estate spill over to the broader economy?Links:- Read the Unhedged newsletter on commercial real estate and office REITs.For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferFollow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Japanese stocks have been on a tear this year. There are a few reasons for this: Japan looks better than lots of other places, Japanese monetary policy is giving stocks a boost, and its corporate governance is becoming more friendly to shareholders. But is the rally overextended? Also, we go long Greek bonds and short the liquidators trying to get $1.3bn from the founders of Three Arrows Capital.Links:Read the Unhedged newsletter on JapanFor a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedofferFollow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Car insurance costs in the US have shot up by 23% in the past 18 months, dwarfing the overall rise in inflation. What exactly is happening? And what lessons can be learnt? We discuss how idiosyncratic factors like a new law in Florida and even Taylor Swift’s latest tour are showing up in US prices. Also, we go short US housing and long SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son and his quirky presentations.Links:What’s going on with US car insurance?For a free 90- day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On paper, it’s a strong market. The S&P 500 is up more than 14 per cent this year. But for professional investors, it’s confusing. Most of the gains are driven by just seven stocks, all big tech names such as Apple and Nvidia. Take those seven out and the market is essentially flat, leaving traders wondering if they’re sitting out an AI bubble, or missing a real rally. Also, we go long gilts, which are yielding 5 per cent, and long …lettuce. Links:Stock market scramble has left investors skittish despite rallySubscribe to the Unhedged newsletterFollow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on TwitterRead a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Crypto is at a crossroads. As exchanges and currencies blow up, the US Securities and Exchange Commission is ready to step in. But is crypto a security, like a stock? Or a tradable item of speculation, like a Beanie Baby? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong and Ethan Wu argue about the benefits and risks of regulating crypto. Also, we go short home prices, and long … the bone trade.Subscribe to the Unhedged newsletterFollow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on TwitterRead a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.