Supply Shock

Andy Constan, Founder of Damped Spring & Co-Founder of 2 Gray Beards, talks about catching this week's risk-on rally and the impact of the recent QRA release from the U.S Treasury. They discuss the composition of bond financing, Janet Yellen's refunding announcement, and the potential impact on the stock market and economy. Andy's accurate predictions are acknowledged, and links to previous episodes with Andy are shared.

Former hedge fund manager and private investor Michael Kao joins the show to discuss the U.S. Treasury refunding announcement and the Fed's FOMC meeting. They explore the dollar yen cross, the market's reaction to Powell's press conference, and the four horsemen of economic resilience. They also critique Jay Powell's approach, analyze interest rates and bear steepening in the bond market, and discuss the issuance of US Treasury debt. The speakers propose thinking outside the box to address the bear steepening in the bond market and highlight the criticism of Janet Yellen's actions.

Arthur Hayes, CIO at Maelstrom Fund, discusses the bursting of the sovereign debt bubble, the impact of the bear steepener on bank balance sheets, and how crypto can act as a safe haven during financial repression and inflation. They also explore the social implications of government financing and the role of oil in modern civilization. Additionally, they touch on topics like inflation, real interest rates, Bitcoin's behavior compared to tech stocks, and the institutional adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.

Discussion on recent increase in Bitcoin price, gamma squeeze, upcoming conference in London, importance of experience in trading, introduction to Blockworks Research, analysis of Q3 GDP number, investment topics and regrets

Renowned economist Dr. Claudio Borio and Joseph Wang discuss the interplay of monetary and fiscal policy, risks of high debt levels, inflation regimes, and the implications of credit losses. Touches on the role of central banks in shaping financial cycles and the need for regulation.

Discussion on the false Bitcoin ETF headline that caused Bitcoin to surge to $30k. Analysis of the bond market sell-off and its historical context. Insight into insolvent banks, heavily indebted companies, and Apple's increased debt. Analyzing Netflix and Tesla earnings and valuation. Contrasting signals between the NASDAQ and bonds in traditional markets.

In this episode, Neal Berger, Founder of Eagle's View Capital Management, discusses the challenges faced in the stock and bond markets in 2023, the bond market sell-off, the negative impact of higher interest rates on stocks, and the reversal of the ocean of liquidity. Looking ahead, he shares predictions and expectations for 2023 and 2024.

The podcast covers a range of interesting topics such as cryptocurrency preferences and dominance, the relevance of big institutions in crypto, recent activity in the macro market and bond auctions, the significance of the ratio and supply issues in the bond market, inversion of the yield curve and implications for the economy, and the impact of inflation on the bond market and potential Middle East conflict.

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6TFollow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiMFollow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX--On today’s episode, two hedge fund veterans Andy Constan & Nick Givanovic, Co-Founders of 2 Gray Beards join the show for a discussion on the recent bond market sell-off, the journey towards recession island in 2024 & the path ahead for equity weakness depending on the U.S Treasury's QRA at the end of October. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Andy: https://twitter.com/dampedspringFollow Nick: https://twitter.com/nickgiva1Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Referenced In The Show:Logan’s speech is worth reading: the “why” of this recent bond selloff matters importantly for the Fed: https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1711371085889864063The U.S. Treasury Is Neutralizing The Fed's Quantitative Tightening | Michael Howell & Andy Constan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nZwrE_uNcg--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:28) How To End An Inflation Cycle(06:43) A Wave Of U.S Treasury Issuance Is Coming To Market(17:12) The Fed Will Be Happy With The Bond Market Sell-Off(19:43) Blockworks Research Ad(20:30) The U.S. Treasury Is Neutralizing The Fed's Quantitative Tightening(27:48) Debt & Deficits(35:11) Reacting To Geopolitical Uncertainty In Markets(41:33) Preparing For Act 4 In A Move To Recession Island(47:41) Inflation--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The hosts discuss the 'bloodbath' in the bond market and the blowout payrolls data, as well as the impact of surging yields, the US dollar, and oil. They explore the possibilities of a bond market sell-off, equity market cracks, and the intervention by the Bank of Japan. The chapter also includes analysis of the NASDAQ, oil, yields, dollar, and AI boom, along with discussions on Zoom Technologies confusion and meme stocks impact. Additionally, they critique the birth death ratio in jobs reports and examine the implications of rising yields on equities and global economy stress indicators.