Supply Shock

In this episode, Neal Berger, Founder of Eagle's View Capital Management, discusses the challenges faced in the stock and bond markets in 2023, the bond market sell-off, the negative impact of higher interest rates on stocks, and the reversal of the ocean of liquidity. Looking ahead, he shares predictions and expectations for 2023 and 2024.

The podcast covers a range of interesting topics such as cryptocurrency preferences and dominance, the relevance of big institutions in crypto, recent activity in the macro market and bond auctions, the significance of the ratio and supply issues in the bond market, inversion of the yield curve and implications for the economy, and the impact of inflation on the bond market and potential Middle East conflict.

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6TFollow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiMFollow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX--On today’s episode, two hedge fund veterans Andy Constan & Nick Givanovic, Co-Founders of 2 Gray Beards join the show for a discussion on the recent bond market sell-off, the journey towards recession island in 2024 & the path ahead for equity weakness depending on the U.S Treasury's QRA at the end of October. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Andy: https://twitter.com/dampedspringFollow Nick: https://twitter.com/nickgiva1Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Referenced In The Show:Logan’s speech is worth reading: the “why” of this recent bond selloff matters importantly for the Fed: https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1711371085889864063The U.S. Treasury Is Neutralizing The Fed's Quantitative Tightening | Michael Howell & Andy Constan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nZwrE_uNcg--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:28) How To End An Inflation Cycle(06:43) A Wave Of U.S Treasury Issuance Is Coming To Market(17:12) The Fed Will Be Happy With The Bond Market Sell-Off(19:43) Blockworks Research Ad(20:30) The U.S. Treasury Is Neutralizing The Fed's Quantitative Tightening(27:48) Debt & Deficits(35:11) Reacting To Geopolitical Uncertainty In Markets(41:33) Preparing For Act 4 In A Move To Recession Island(47:41) Inflation--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The hosts discuss the 'bloodbath' in the bond market and the blowout payrolls data, as well as the impact of surging yields, the US dollar, and oil. They explore the possibilities of a bond market sell-off, equity market cracks, and the intervention by the Bank of Japan. The chapter also includes analysis of the NASDAQ, oil, yields, dollar, and AI boom, along with discussions on Zoom Technologies confusion and meme stocks impact. Additionally, they critique the birth death ratio in jobs reports and examine the implications of rising yields on equities and global economy stress indicators.

Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book, discusses the death of China's old economic model. They debunk the misconception of China's imminent collapse, explore China's economic growth expectations vs reality, analyze China's inflation data, discuss China's economic model and its impact on the global economy, explore the possibility of decoupling the economic activity between the United States and China, and discuss trade tariffs on steel imports from China.

Explosive week in bond market and surge in oil prices. Potential Bitcoin and Ether ETFs. Mark's saying on risk transformation. Renewed Bond Bear Market. Bitcoin & Ether ETFs. Sinister Saturday: Does Inflation Benefit The Elites?

Darius Dale, founder of 42Macro, discusses his views on stocks, bonds, and the economy, explaining why he expects a hard landing. They also touch on the Fed's new dot plot, interest rates & bond yields, the sticky inflation narrative, and the outlook on stocks & bonds.

Fed Meeting and market views on stocks and bonds analyzed. Foreign holdings of Treasuries and inflation uncertainties explored. Anomalies in the economy and market reactions to rate changes discussed. Financial indicators and market trends, including Bitcoin's performance, highlighted. Importance of communication styles and Bitcoin's security budget debated.

Brent Johnson, market expert and founder of Santiago Capital, shares insights on the scorching summer rally in the US dollar against other currencies. He warns of potential consequences if the dollar continues to skyrocket. Topics covered include the relationship between bond markets and currencies, convexity in bond math, analysis of Saudi Arabia and China's holdings of US treasuries, the impact of the weakening yen on China and Japan, and the dilemma facing Japan in stabilizing its currency versus bond market.

The podcast explores recent experiences, crypto market debates, CPI and oil dynamics, market response to economic data, Blockworks Research offer, and the concept of permission and inflation in a centralized authority.