Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, foresees some slowdown in consumer activity this year — with middle-income consumers beginning to struggle — and he says that will lead to a sluggish economy with higher unemployment. He expects inflation to remain sticky, which will push the Federal Reserve to make fewer rate cuts — he says it's possible they make no rate reductions this year at all — though he does believe the economy can stave off a recession. He reviews his 10 forecasts for the year ahead in The Big Interview. But he's not the only guest gazing into the crystal ball for 2025, as Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, talks about what to expect from interest rates on everything from mortgages to savings accounts over the next 12 months. And in the Market Call, David Allen of the Octane All-Cap Value Energy ETF talks about finding under-the-radar issues in the energy sector.

Kristy Akullian, head of iShares Investment Strategy for the Americas at BlackRock, says that "the most important thing we're watching is earnings" as an indicator for the year ahead, noting that in 2024 more of the performance came from earnings growth than from multiple expansion, particularly for the parts of the market like large-cap growth companies that had a banner year. While the stock market is still looking for interest rate cuts, Akullian says that earnings can overcome any disappointment that is likely as the Federal Reserve slows the pace of rate cuts. For the year ahead — and iShares released its outlook for 2025 today — she is expecting modest gains, no recession, and continued struggles for international markets and small-cap stocks. Kim Blanton, who writes the Squared Away blog for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, discusses research which shows that delaying Social Security pays off for couples, but particularly for high-income families who get the best possible outcomes by being patient and who — because of their income — can afford to wait to achieve that outcome. Plus, Chuck answers questions about Morningstar and VettaFi and mutual fund research and ratings.

Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, says that 2025 is likely to see the leaders from the last few years move sideways while the rest of the market "can get some more traction and play a little catch-up." He notes that if the market broadens out and those other companies see earnings growth, it can keep the bull market rolling and offset a slowdown in rate cuts from the Federal Reserve as the central bank responds to sticky inflation by slowing its pace of rate reductions. Scott Krase, wealth manager at Connor & Gallagher OneSource, makes his debut in the Market Call, talking about ETFs and how they particularly provide access to alternative asset classes in ways that ordinary investors can benefit from in current conditions. Chuck also reviews what he has long called his "change experiment," where he saves all of his cash below $10 bills, and how much that added up to not just in 2024 but since he started doing it in 2020.

Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, says that 2024 proved most pundits wrong, as they forecast years that were much more modest than the 25 percent that the stock market gained, with more economic struggles and more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. His forecasts, however, proved mostly right, as he reviews 2024 in today's Big Interview. Speaking of a review of the year just finished, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — looks back at the prognostications for the closed-end fund industry that he made a year ago and how the data now shows nearly all of them to have been correct. And as for prognostications, Adam Peck, co-founder of Riverwater Partners, makes a big one in the Market Call when he says that the cycles that have favored large-caps over small stocks are now long in the tooth, which is why he is expecting small-caps to outperform over the next 15 years. 

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, says 2025 will finish up a positive year, but it will likely be a year of single-digit gains that will be a struggle to achieve because the market is starting the year with stretched valuations and other headwinds. While he doesn't see a recession in the offing, Stovall sees other conditions making the market sluggish, ranging from the presidential cycle to the regular run of a bull market and more. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, reviews the big stories in the exchange-traded fund business from 2024 and how some of those issues will keep playing out for ETFs and investors in the new year. Plus, in the Market Call, Jeff Auxier of the Auxier Focus Fund discusses business-centric, long-term investing.

Jim Lee, founder at StratFi, says investors can be "reasonably optimistic" about the first half of 2025, but says that by the time June rolls around "I'd start to get careful." Among the technical indicators Lee leans on is the "Kitchin Cycle," which runs 180 weeks (or three and a half years) and has a solid record over the last century, and the cycle is showing a market peak at the start of March in 2025. Less says the market has the momentum to keep rolling, but not too far past that peak in the Kitchin Cycle. Also on the show, Dana Miranda of the Healthy Rich newsletter discusses her new book, “You Don’t Need a Budget: Stop Worrying About Debt, Spend Without Shame and Manage Money with Ease,” Rita Assaf discusses the annual Financial Resolutions Study out from Fidelity, which showed a strong desire for "a year of living practically" in 2025, and Chuck discusses ways to measure the success of 2024, and how it fits into the big picture of both the market and of our personal lives.

Whether it is making resolutions, setting goals or establishing targets, Chuck has tried every kind of plan for financial self-improvement over his decades as a personal finance journalist, and today he talks about the importance of having a system that helps you focus on making progress and how to set yourself up to end 2025 better off than you are now. Also on the show, author Steven Foerster discusses his latest book, "Trailblazers, Heroes & Crooks: Stories to Make You a Smarter Investor," and Aniket Ullal, head of ETF data and analytics at CFRA Research talks exchange-traded funds in the Market Call. 

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, says that the real story in cryptocurrency in 2024 has not been the massive gains in Bitcoin -- which is up about 120 percent year-to-date -- but the way the business has matured, adding crypto ETFs from some of Wall Street's biggest firms. Coupled with the new administration, which is crypto-friendly, it makes Hougan more positive about his outlook for the future, which he says includes plenty of room for crypto to run higher in 2025. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, digs into his mountain of data to divine the stories he anticipates to be central to the closed-end fund landscape in the new year, and also delivers the names of five funds that he thinks are poised for breakout performances. Plus, financial adviser Patti Brennan helps answer the big question most investors want to know for the new year and beyond, as she discusses her new book, “Am I Going to Be Okay? Timely Intelligence, Actionable Ideas, Answers to the Questions that Really Matter.” 

Teralyn Pilgrim, author of "No Scrap Left Behind: My Life Without Food Waste," says that Americans are wasting significant dollars each month, simply with how they buy and use their groceries. She's not preaching radical lifestyle change as much is simply trying to plan and use food purchases efficiently to reduce or eliminate food waste. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, reviews the year that was for ETFs; Kevin Roth, head of research for the CFP Board of Standards discusses the group's annual Debt and New Year's Resolution Report, which clearly shows that finances play a big role in New Year's resolutions. Plus,Sam Fleming, co-founder / chief technology officer at Moat Metrics, brings his firm's methods into focus in the Money Life Market Call.

Avi Gilburt, founder of Elliott Wave Trader, says the market is in the final throes of a bull market that has been in place for nearly a century, noting that while there may be one more high or buying opportunity before things are exhausted, he sees the market turning in the next few months, noting that the Standard & Poor's 500 decisively breaking the 5400 support level would  be a sign that a bear market has begun. Then, Daniel Crosby, host of the Standard Deviations Podcast, discusses his new book, "The Soul of Wealth: 50 reflections on money and meaning;" After that, Allison Hadley talks about a new CardRates.com study showing that nearly half of Americans expect to return 1-3 gifts this holiday season. And in the Market Call, Scott Martindale, chief executive at Sabrient Systems, talks about picking "high performance stock portfolios," using the methods of Sabrient's founder, David Brown, who recently released a book on building a portfolio based on high-octane stocks.