My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Larry Swedroe is head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners.STORY: Larry chose to invest in an individual bank stock in the mid-80s instead of following his gut to invest in a portfolio of stocks. The bank’s President committed fraud, and the company went bankrupt. Larry lost about 80% of his investment.LEARNING: Avoid idiosyncratic risks by hyper-diversifying your portfolio. “Focus on managing risks and not trying to generate alpha or risk-adjusted outperformance.”Larry Swedroe Guest profileLarry Swedroe is head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with enthusiasm few can match.Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has authored or co-authored 18 books.Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets.Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect, Advisor Perspectives, and Wealth Management.Worst investment everIn the mid-80s, while Larry was working at Citicorp as the regional treasurer on the West Coast, his colleague and friend convinced him to invest in a company called Jefferson National Bank. Larry happened to believe in two themes that were behind his friend’s recommendation.One, this was a small regional bank, and Larry was confident that the US would allow consolidation to build national banks. So there was going to be a trend of purchasing well-run small banks at premiums to enable the big banks to become national.Two, the bank was located on the border between Canada and upstate New York. There was a military base with a good, sound community, making it suitable for businesses. Larry also believed NAFTA would pass, which would build up the trade in the area.Larry then called a bunch of friends in the banking business and asked them what they thought of this company. Most were impressed by how well the bank was run and the good earnings. Everything seemed suitable for an investor.The President of the bank committed fraud, and the company went bankrupt. Larry lost about 80% of his investment.Looking at hindsight, Larry could have made a much more intelligent bet by avoiding idiosyncratic risks. He could have found a collection of regional stocks with the same advantages as the bank he invested in but without the idiosyncratic risk.Lessons learnedLarry has, over time, developed three principles of investing:Principle one: If the markets are sufficiently efficient, invest in systematic, transparent, rapidly run funds that try to keep their trading costs down with patient trading.Principle two: All risk assets have to have very similar risk-adjusted returns.Principle three: Once you account for all risks, hyper-diversify your portfolio.Actionable adviceIf you need excitement from your life by trying to pick stocks and time in the market, take 1% of your portfolio that you’re willing to lose and go play the market. But don’t take your IRA account to the Merrill Lynch office because you’re more likely to lose it.Larry’s recommendationsLarry recommends reading his book, Investment Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make and How to Avoid Them, so that you can learn from others’ mistakes than make them yourselves. He also recommends books by John Bogle and William Bernstein.Parting words “Ignorance is not an excuse for making mistakes; the best thing you can do is get educated.”Larry Swedroe [spp-transcript] Connect with Larry SwedroeLinkedInTwitterWebsiteBooksAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

Never has the US gov’t caused such a massive move in GDP. The question is, “which way is GDP going?” Will we see a recession or a soft landing?Click here to get the PDF with all charts and graphsReasons for a recessionExtreme increases in interest rates are meant to slow down the economyThe fastest rate-hike cycle by the Fed since the 1980sIn the 2004 cycle, the target rate was hiked by 4.25% in totalSame as in the current cycle, but it has now been done much fasterThe massive rise in mortgage rates is dramatically slowing the property marketThis, in turn, leads to crashing prices, which will make people feel less wealthy and hold them back from spendingThe yield curve has inverted, which has perfectly predicted prior recessionsAll recessions in the US since 1968 were preceded by an inverted yield curveThe average time from inversion until the recession started was about 1 year (about mid-2023)The surge in spending supported by gov’t handouts is working itself out of the systemSince 2Q21, households have demonstrated stronger than usual spending behaviorStrong wage growth has contributed to more savings in 4Q21 onwardReasons for a soft landingHigh employment means the economy is robust and can withstand the rate hikesCompanies are highly profitable, which will allow them to bear a slowdown more easilyCompanies are sitting on tons of cashIndividuals slowed their spending in anticipation of an economic slowdownDemocrat party leadership will pump things up (e.g., strategic petroleum reserve)US banks are in a strong position, holding lots of cash and gov’t bondsReducing the risk of a financial sector crisis that would exacerbate an economic crisisAt the end of 2021, the banks had nearly 40% of their assets in cash and securitiesCompared to 13% at the end of 2007Gov’t spending is going to be crowded out by borrowing interest paymentsAnd then politicians will pressure the Fed to cut ratesClick here to get the PDF with all charts and graphs Andrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: David Siegel is an entrepreneur who has started more than a dozen companies. He has written five books on technology and business, given more than 200 professional speeches worldwide, and was once a candidate to be the dean of Stanford business school.STORY: David joins the podcast again, this time around discussing climate change.LEARNING: It’s wrong to reduce climate change to a score. We need a better alternative to the UN’s Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) movement. “You don’t have to do anything the way anybody tells you to. Go learn in the most irreverent way possible.”David Siegel Guest profileDavid Siegel is an entrepreneur who has started more than a dozen companies. He has written five books on technology and business, has given more than 200 professional speeches around the world, and was once a candidate to be the dean of Stanford business school. He is a fintech leader, a leader of the open Metaverse movement, a business strategy coach, and an advocate for the scientific method. He writes and makes videos about climate change at www.climatecurious.com.Worst investment everDavid is a previous guest who joined us on Ep98: Start-ups Should Start with Selling. In today’s episode, he tells us more about his research on climate change.David’s penchant for climate changeDavid has been conducting research on climate change since 1988. He wrote his first book on climate in 1991. So David is not one of those instant climate experts. In 2015, he decided to really dig into the subject and spent an entire year doing nothing but climate research. During this extensive research, David realized that many scientists don’t understand climate change fully and that many people take it at its face value. He believes people need to understand climate change on its own merits and not as an overarching cause and effect. For this reason, David digs deep into research to present raw data and help people make up their minds.In comes the UN’s ESG movementThe rigorous talks on climate change have metastasized into the global Environment, Social, and Governance (ESG) movement that has been forced on us by the World Economic Forum and the UN. ESG is a UN program strongly endorsed by the World Economic Forum and has been going on for 20 years. The point of ESG is to give every company a detailed scorecard of their carbon footprint, water use, energy, pollution, and other practices that affect climate change.Every public company in the United States pays $2 billion yearly for compliance, which could go to $8 billion. David believes this money is spent so the companies can get a high score regardless of their efficiency.Transparency is good; it’s just being done the wrong wayDavid believes that while we must have transparency where climate change is concerned, it’s not okay to reduce it to a score given by some consultants. He thinks the ESG scoring system simplifies a complex subject into a single set of numbers that don’t represent reality.Moreover, ESG scoring is done arbitrarily, based on political assumptions and a set of unclear rules by anointed consultants selling indulgences. According to David, coming up with one score on something is full of problems and creates terrible incentives. In this case, companies won’t be efficient with the goal of fighting climate change but simply get a good score. And with the amount of money companies are paying, it really comes down to paying for the ratings. So there’s a lot of conflict of interest in the ESG scoring process.The scoring will soon get personalCurrently, every US state and city must get an ESG ranking. David believes this will go further down to a personal ESG score. Soon, everyone will need to have a unique social credit score. This personal ESG score will be used to deny you access to financial services, rent, loans, how far and when you can travel, etc.Let’s build a better alternativeDavid believes that the idea behind creating ESG is good. Still, we need to build a better alternative that’s more objective and efficient. He also insists that people should use independent thinking to combat climate change at an individual level. David’s advice is to participate where it makes sense and know when to go with the herd and when to go against it.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsDavid’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to build his Cutting Through The Noise platform.Parting words “Develop yourself and learn all you can. Podcasts like Andrew’s are really valuable. Don’t take anything from other people; find your own way. Look at the data, learn to interpret it, and ask difficult, irritating questions.”David Siegel [spp-transcript] Connect with David SiegelTwitterWebsiteBlogAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever PodcastFurther reading mentionedHans Rosling (April 2018), Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World--and Why Things Are Better Than You ThinkTodd B. Kashdan (February 2022), The Art of Insubordination: How to Dissent and Defy EffectivelyGreg Satell (April 3, 2019), Cascades: How to Create a Movement that Drives Transformational Change

BIO: Maxwell Nee is the Managing Partner of OENO Wine & Whisky Investment. He’s a multi-award-winning entrepreneur making alternative investments in wine and whisky.STORY: Maxwell bought an apartment in an off-plan contract and paid 45,000 Australian dollars as a downpayment. He was to pay the balance once the apartment was complete in about 36 months. Mid-project, he realized the deal was not worth it, so he pulled out of the contract and lost his downpayment.LEARNING: Slow down and think about something before you commit. It’s okay to walk away from a bad investment. “When you get fully committed to an investment, you only find reasons to fall more in love with it. Then it becomes harder and harder to walk away even if it looks bad.”Maxwell Nee Guest profileMaxwell Nee is the Managing Partner of OENO Wine & Whisky Investment. He’s a multi-award-winning entrepreneur who earns his investors a recession-proof and market-beating return with wine and whisky alternative investments.Worst investment everWhen Maxwell was 21, he was in Brisbane, Australia, and the city was in the middle of a transition where everyone living in houses started to live in apartments. This led to developers building apartments everywhere, creating a massive oversupply.Maxwell decided to move with the trend and bought an apartment off-plan. The apartment was worth about AUD 450,000, and since the apartment wasn’t built yet, Maxwell would pay a 10% deposit and clear the balance after settling in—about 36 months later. He was absolutely in love with this plan from the moment he walked into the showroom. Maxwell used to watch the show Suits and always admired one of the lead character’s New York apartments—the showroom looked like this apartment. Maxwell was in love with the lifestyle of a young professional living in New York City. So he was sold on the property and didn’t even really care about the price.Maxwell borrowed money for the deposit and spent three months picking furniture, forks, cups, glasses, crystals, whiskey tumblers, and all this stuff in readiness to live in his dream apartment. All this excitement distracted him from doing any due diligence. Maxwell didn’t look at the metrics or research the developer. He simply signed an unconditional contract which meant that no matter what happened, he wouldn’t get out of the contract.About halfway through the project, Maxwell saw an article saying that because the place was so city-centric (it was in a boisterous place), and so the developer was legally obligated, according to the local council, to invest $10 million in triple-glazed glass. This was to protect the occupants from the noise. This was not good for the investors because it meant the developer would take that $10 million from them.Maxwell worked at the bank at the time. So he went to get a loan to pay the remaining amount. The valuer went to value the property and informed Maxwell that he could only value it at 88% of what he had signed up for. So his expected value of the apartment was already 12% down. Maxwell started forecasting how long it would take him to return to parity and realized it would be about seven or eight years. It was such a losing position.Maxwell’s loan was approved, but he decided last minute to walk away, even if it meant losing his deposit of $45,000. The developer tried to extract the balance from Maxwell, so he returned to his agent, who helped him find a replacement buyer. The new buyer only signed the deal because Maxwell signed over his deposit to them.Lessons learnedIt never hurts to slow down and think about something before you commit.It’s okay to look at other options before deciding what to invest in.Make sure you double-check yourself if you get too attached to an investment.If you’re not an expert, or it’s your first time doing something, get a mentor or a coach to teach. Or pay for someone to do it for you.Andrew’s takeawaysProperty can be a trap as it’s not liquid, and it can be hard to get in and out of compared to the stock market. So it’s imperative to do proper research before getting into real estate.It’s okay to walk away from a bad investment.Actionable advicePut your hand up more and seek an expert instead of blindly getting into something you don’t know about.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsMaxwell’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to educate and empower as many people as possible and guide them in their investment journey.Parting words “Guys, Andrew has got this podcast down pat. So subscribe and listen. I really love this concept.”Maxwell Nee [spp-transcript] Connect with Maxwell NeeLinkedInInstagramYouTubeWebsitePodcastAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

Did the man who discovered the most successful recession indicator abandon it?Click here to get the PDF with all charts and graphsIn a recent LinkedIn post, Campbell Harvey outlined why his yield curve inversion theory, which has a perfect record of predicting recessions, may no longer work. He concludes that we may not get a recession in 2023.He argues that the labor market is strong compared to the past two recessions. Unfilled jobs are still high, and skilled workers losing their jobs have shorter periods before getting a new job.The current situation is not like the 2008 or 2020 crisesThis is unlike the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic recession, where workers had no job opportunities to pursue. Harvey argues that consumers have less indebtedness and are better prepared to withstand the rise in interest rates.The financial sector is strong compared to the 2008 period, reducing the risk of a financial sector crisis that would exacerbate an economic crisis.Focus on the real yield curveHarvey also suggested that we should put more weight on the real yield curve (after adjusting for inflation), which shows no inversion, despite the inversion of the nominal yield curve.The inverted yield curve has become a victim of its own successFinally, he proposes that his predictor may have become a victim of its own success. Harvey argues that the reactions of economic agents could lead to lower growth, and if the economy survives the period, a soft landing is possible.Maybe the widespread knowledge of the success of the yield curve has caused people to adjust ahead of time which will lessen the impact of the recession.Arguments for why Harvey’s inverted yield curve signal is working just fineBut not everyone is buying his reasons for abandoning his measure. Below is a list of some of the arguments made in the comment section about why Harvey’s inverted yield curve signal is working just fine.The labor force participation rate in the United States has been falling, it averaged 63% from 1948 to 2022, reaching an all-time high of 67% in 2000Consumer debt is at all-time highs; most relevantly, consumer debt service payments as a percent of disposable personal income are the highest in over 13 years and still risingThe consumer is weak as wages are not keeping up with the fast rise in consumer prices, driven by high energy and commodities pricesConsumers need to borrow or tap into their savings as disposable income gets eaten upConsumer savings rates are lowThe Fed will not reduce its rate rise course soon as unemployment is still lowWill 2022 be the first time since 1968 that the inverted yield curve gives a false signal of recession?Click here to get the PDF with all charts and graphs

BIO: Cameron Herold is the mastermind behind hundreds of companies’ exponential growth and has earned his reputation as the business growth guru.STORY: Cameron is back on the Podcast with tidbits from his upcoming book, The Second in Command: How to Unleash the Power of Your COO.LEARNING: A working relationship between a CEO and a COO can grow a company exponentially. Make your company culture conducive to retain your employees. “The very first thing that a smaller company should do before they hire their first second in command is hiring an executive assistant.”Cameron Herold Guest profileCameron Herold is the mastermind behind hundreds of companies’ exponential growth and has earned his reputation as the business growth guru. He has built a dynamic consultancy with clients that include a monarchy and a Big 4 wireless company. The author of six books, Cameron is also a top-rated international speaker, having spoken on all 7 continents. The founder of the COO Alliance, the World’s Leading Network for Seconds in Command, he’s also the host of the Second in Command: The Chief Behind the Chief podcast, where he interviews COOs and other seconds to share their insights with his listeners.Cameron previously joined us on Episode 266, and today he’ll be telling us about his upcoming sixth book.The Second in CommandCameron’s sixth book, The Second in Command: How to Unleash the Power of Your COO, comes out in a couple of days. As with all his other books, Cameron listened to his clients and took their guidance on where they wanted more information from him. He runs an organization called COO Alliance, the only network of its kind in the world for the second in command. Cameron also hosts the Second in Command: The Chief Behind the Chief podcast. In both of those platforms, what he kept hearing was that it’s hard for CEOs to find a second command. They don’t know where to look for them or how to hire them. And once they have one, they don’t get along perfectly, or they think differently. Cameron decided he was going to focus on this in his new book.The yin and yang relationship of the CEO and COOAfter years of being a CEO, Cameron realized that a CEO and COO’s relationship is a very yin and yang relationship. A CEO could grow a company alone—so can a COO. But when they work together, the growth becomes exponential. Cameron’s book aims at helping entrepreneurial and mid-sized companies to put that solid yin and yang together. It also tackles the time and place to get rid of the second command.Andrew’s takeawaysMake the culture of your organization great, so people want to be there.Cameron’s recommendationCameron recommends checking out the Invest in Your Leaders course that offers 12 strong modules around coaching and delegation, time management, and project management. The 12 modules are what Cameron considers the 12 core competencies of successful leaders.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsCameron’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to look into Dubai, Portugal, or Spain, where he and his wife can buy homes. His other goal is to scale up COO Alliance.Parting words “Remember that at the end of the day, we’re all gonna kick the bucket. So let’s enjoy our journey.”Cameron Herold [spp-transcript] Connect with Cameron HeroldLinkedInTwitterInstagramFacebookPodcastYouTubeWebsiteBooksAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Kim Scott is the author of Radical Candor: Be a Kick-Ass Boss Without Losing Your Humanity and Just Work: How to Root Out Bias, Prejudice, and Bullying to Build a Kick-ass Culture of Inclusivity, and she is a co-founder of the company, Radical Candor.STORY: Kim got an idea and $2 million from a friend to build an app for her company Radical Candor. What Kim didn’t realize was that the app was doing the exact opposite of what Radical Candor aimed to do.LEARNING: Just because somebody offers you money doesn’t mean you should take it. Don’t throw good money after bad. Don’t grow for growth’s sake. “If it’s too good to be true, keep asking questions before you jump.”Kim Scott Guest profileKim Scott is the author of Radical Candor: Be a Kick-Ass Boss Without Losing Your Humanity and Just Work: How to Root Out Bias, Prejudice, and Bullying to Build a Kick-ass Culture of Inclusivity, and she is a co-founder of the company, Radical Candor. Kim was a CEO coach at Dropbox, Qualtrics, Twitter, and other tech companies. She was a member of the faculty at Apple University and, before that, led AdSense, YouTube, and DoubleClick teams at Google.Worst investment everKim had just finished writing Radical Candor, but it was going to be published a few months later. So she had some downtime. One time Kim was having lunch with a friend who’s an investor in Silicon Valley, and she told him about the book. The friend suggested that Kim considers building an app to help people change their habits and be radically candid. He said he’d give her $2 million. Kim thought this was a good idea.Kim built one app, and it didn’t work. She created a second app, and it didn’t work. Then made a third version of the app, which still didn’t work. Then one day, Kim was watching her daughter and son perform a musical in a theater, filming it on her phone and watching it on the phone. She looked up from her phone and at the actual children, and the emotional impact was totally different. At that moment, Kim realized that the whole point of Radical Candor was to get people to put their telephones away, look each other in the eye, and have real conversations. This app she was building was a value-subtracting platform. Kim decided not to continue building the app. She had spent about half the money her friend had given her at this point.Lessons learnedJust because somebody offers you money doesn’t mean you should take it. First, stop and think if it’s really necessary.If you’re running a business, don’t get pushed to grow too fast.That thing that you really love doing that helps you add value to the world, do it.Don’t throw good money after bad.Andrew’s takeawaysDon’t grow for growth’s sake.Just because something is cheap doesn’t mean you have to buy it.Actionable adviceSlow down a little bit. If it’s too good to be true, it probably is. If something comes too easy, there’s probably something you’re missing.Kim’s recommendationTo  Radicalcandor.com to learn more about what Kim does. If you’re curious about the different ways that bias, prejudice, and bullying masquerade as feedback, go to justworktogether.com and figure out how to root out those problems.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsKim’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to spend 80% of her time writing her new novel.Parting words “Go forth and solicit feedback. That’ll keep you out of more trouble than anything else.”Kim Scott [spp-transcript] Connect with Kim ScottLinkedInFacebookInstagramYouTubeWebsiteBooksAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

WW2.5 is what I like to call “The US against who?” You may say China or Russia. In my opinion, those are both wrong. It’s the US against Europe. And the US just won. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has encouraged US dominance over Europe. Let’s take a deeper look at this dominance.Click here to get the PDF with all charts and graphsMilitary dominanceThe US has more than 60,000 troops in Europe, half of which are in Germany, a third in Italy, and the UK. The US operates more than 200 military bases in Europe. People often like to say that it’s China or maybe Russia that will take over the world. But when I look at it objectively, Russia is almost a non-issue for the US. Here’s why:Economically, it’s tinier than the USMilitarily, the US military budget is 10X the Russian budgetPeople worldwide are more likely to prefer the US political system over the Russian oneAlmost all European countries joined NATO, and the US now controls it. NATO membership means Europeans participate as “peacekeepers” in US conflicts. In today’s world, joining NATO means getting involved in military action worldwide for Europeans.Political dominanceIn 2018, Trump raised the issue of Germany’s energy dependence on Russia in a meeting with Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary-General of NATO.https://youtu.be/9LLZBVTid4IThe conversation shows that back when Trump was in power, the US tried to get Germany to stop getting oil and gas from Russia. This was a move to control Russia’s dominance.The absence of former Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel and her coalition’s political leadership in Europe​ has allowed the US to fill the gap, for example, forcing Germany to cut off the Russian oil and gas supply​. European political leaders will find it hard to oppose the US​, thus weakening Europe politically.Cultural dominanceI find it fascinating that the 2015 Syrian refugee crisis saw nearly 1.3 million people (Syrians, Afghans, Nigerians, and others​) arrive in Europe to request asylum. This is the highest number of asylum seekers in a single year since World War II​. I believe an influx of refugees into any country will cause a cultural disruption.Of the asylum seekers from the Syrian Crisis:​51% went to Germany​10% to France​9% to Italy​7% to Sweden​I’m talking about the Syrian crisis in 2015 and the refugees because, since February 2022, more than 11 million Ukrainians have entered the European Union​. In the presentation, I shared an excellent chart that shows where these people are going.The main thing about this that is interesting is that we’re not seeing 1.3 million people as we saw in the Syrian war; we see 11 million. We could estimate that many of the 11 million will return to Ukraine after the war, and we’ll remain with about 3 or 4 million permanent refugees or political asylum seekers in Europe. That still causes disruption. Whether you’re for or against accepting political asylum seekers, the fact is that it causes disruption.Financial dominanceWhen you look at the GDP of the biggest countries in the world, and I break it into three groups; the Americas, Asia, and Europe, you’ll see that the US is about 24% of the total GDP. China is about 19% of the total global GDP. So in the Americas and Asia, we have dominant players, the US and China.But in Europe, the German GDP is only 4% of the world’s total. The UK has about 3.2%, France 2.8%, and Italy 2%. Unlike the Americas and Asia, no country is a dominant economic force in Europe​. Merkel’s strong leadership is gone, with nothing to replace it​. Germany’s economy is weakened from this crisis​. This makes Europe ripe for the taking for the US.Energy dominanceChina, the US, and India are the top three energy consumers. China consumes about 26% of the world’s energy, the US 16%, India 6%, Russia 5%, and Japan 3%.Now let’s look at consumption from fossil fuels, nuclear, hydro, and renewable perspectives. 82% of the world’s energy consumption comes from fossil fuels. As of 2021, Europe was at 71%. So they’re already down a lot on fossil fuel consumption. This means they also have a large amount of nuclear.The world is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with 82% of total consumption. If we then look at what countries are producing the most oil and gas output, the first country is the US, with 18.5% of the total oil and gas output. Russia and Saudi Arabia are second at 12%, followed by Canada at 6%, Iraq at 4.6, and China at 4.4%. So what’s interesting here is that the US has just knocked out Russia, that’s 12.2% of total output. And now, Europe will have to get oil from the US or Saudi Arabia.On page 25, you’ll see a map of Europe and Russia when you download my presentation. From the map, you can see that Russia is the heart of the European energy sources. There’s no denying that Russia is the closest and most efficient source for Europe to depend on. So, cutting off the Russian gas supply to Europe is no small thing.It’s a fantastic accomplishment for the US to dominate Europe. And the beautiful thing about what the US did, in this case, is that they did it without a shot fired, and they had the Europeans cut it off themselves. The US has forced Europe to ban oil and gas imports from Iran since 2018. US sanctions, Germany succumb to pressure to cut off the Nord Stream 2 project.Key points and the bottom lineAlmost all European countries joined NATO, and the US controls NATO​The weakening of Germany leaves Europe with no dominant political power to challenge the US​The US-Russia showdown is destabilizing Europe through immigration​All EU countries exist within the US dollar framework and are unable to exit​The US cut the flow of Russian oil and gas, which weakened Europe​The United States won WW2.5, and Europe willingly lost without a drop of blood being spilledClick here to get the PDF with all charts and graphs Andrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Peter W. Johnson, Jr. is the founder and principal of PWJohnson Wealth & Legacy, LLC, a fee-only Registered Investment Advisory firm based in Silicon Valley, California.STORY: Peter invested in two business ideas that came too early for their time. Both businesses had minimal uptake because people didn’t understand what Peter was trying to do.LEARNING:  Never invest all of your money in risky things; always stay diversified. Pick the right people to work with. A great idea is not the only thing you need to succeed. “Never invest all of your money in risky things; always stay diversified.”Peter Johnson Guest profilePeter W. Johnson, Jr. is the founder and principal of PWJohnson Wealth & Legacy, LLC, a fee-only Registered Investment Advisory firm based in Silicon Valley, California.His independent firm has provided investment and financial planning services to clients and families for 30 years, with a balanced emphasis on both the analytical and human sides of the wealth equation.Family wealth is personal for Peter. Peter’s great-grandfather was a self-made businessman who built his wealth to $100 million. But he subsequently lost this wealth over three generations.Worst investment everPeter has always been a computer geek. It was no surprise when he attended a conference in 1995 where they discussed setting up websites, and he immediately came up with a business idea. The internet was just opening to commercial use. Peter thought it would be a good idea to build an online community of investment professionals who could share their favorite websites and store them in a database. He hired friends to set up the community.Peter immediately went out to market his community. He realized he was speaking to people who didn’t know what email was. Only 10% of the people he talked to had email, internet web databases, or bulletin boards. The uptake was very slow, and people were reluctant to pay even though the value was self-evident. Peter’s idea came just too early for its time. People simply didn’t grasp what he was trying to do.In 2001, Peter went to another conference about publishing ebooks. He started doing ebooks on the side in collaboration with a little book publishing company. Unfortunately, he didn’t get the subscribership he needed. Then 9/11 happened, and everything went into a funk. The business ran out of money and could no longer afford to pay the people Peter had hired.Lessons learned Never invest all of your money in risky things; always stay diversified.Pick the right people to work with.Learn the joys of guerilla marketing to become a hell of a marketer.If you want input from friends and family, form an advisory board.Pay attention to your gut feeling.Don’t be early and don’t be late.Andrew’s takeawaysA great idea is not the only thing you need to succeed.The runway is not just money. It also involves your emotions.Actionable adviceBe kind to yourself and invest in yourself. Follow your passions because there’s something there. As long as you learn something, it’s okay to fail. Sometimes you won’t learn anything, but you’ll learn to survive.Peter’s recommendationPeter recommends finding and joining a community of people who can inspire and lift you up. People you can meet, talk to, share ideas with, and support each other.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsPeter’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to build a new podcast called Life, Love, and Legacy. He hopes to use the platform to let people know the value of doing more than surviving.Parting words “There’s so much that we have to offer people and such platforms are a great way to get the word out. So thank you for the work you’re doing.”Peter Johnson [spp-transcript] Connect with Peter JohnsonLinkedInWebsiteAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Morad Fiki is a former U.S. Naval Officer and #1 Real Estate Expert on Social Media in Texas. He has been awarded Top 1.4% Real Estate Agents In the United States through Real Trends and has over 100 Million dollars in Career Sales.STORY: Morad got into the restaurant business without prior due diligence causing him to buy a non-profitable business. In addition to that, he got into a partnership where he was the sole financier.LEARNING: Don't go into business with someone who has nothing to lose. Do your research. “Don't go into business with someone with nothing to lose. If a partner doesn’t put money into the venture and it doesn’t work, they could just walk away."Morad Fiki Guest profileMorad Fiki is a former U.S. Naval Officer and #1 Real Estate Expert on Social Media in Texas. He has been awarded Top 1.4% Real Estate Agents In the United States through Real Trends and has over 100 Million dollars in Career Sales. Morad helps people who feel stuck in their careers and their lives and have no sales, no business, no customers, and no idea where to go from here to get out of their own way and realize the greatness within themselves. He believes that once you do this, you can unlock your potential and take profound steps to live your best lives and have a business that reflects that. Morad is on a mission to inspire 10 million real estate professionals and associated services providers to grow their businesses to six figures and beyond so that they can make a greater impact on their own lives, families, and communities.Worst investment everMorad wanted to be an uber-successful business tycoon. He decided to buy several restaurants and liquidate them. At first, he started looking at different franchising opportunities. Morad had no experience in this whatsoever.Morad's best friend from high school had an older brother who had worked as a sous chef for about 20 years, so he knew how to cook. His dream was to own his own restaurant. Morad figured they could partner in his quest to be a restaurant owner. The plan was for Morad to acquire the restaurants, and his friend's brother would run them. Morad would fund them all and do the marketing and advertising. Since the two were starting from scratch, Morad thought it was best to buy an existing restaurant that was already operating and profitable. He went ahead and got a business broker, who found him a pizza parlor. It was selling for $120,000, but he ended up negotiating it to $90,000. Morad had sort financing from the bank. He went to the sales tax office and got the license in his name.  They opened the restaurant, and Morad went hard on the advertising. But, this was in vain. They only got a few customers, but more was needed to keep the business going. In due time, Morad discovered that the restaurant wasn't making the amount of money the seller said it was making. Morad was lucky to break even. Morad tried to sell it before it went under. He hired the same business broker that sold it to him. All the buyers were savvy and had done enough due diligence to realize there was no money to be made in the business. So it became impossible to sell the business. Morad's partner quit the partnership and left him high and dry. The business finally went under.Lessons learnedDon't go into business with someone who has nothing to lose because it will be easy for them to walk away when it doesn't work out.Don't rush into something. If you don't feel 100% good about it, it's better to walk away and reassess.Take a risk, but fully evaluate that risk and do thorough due diligence.Andrew's takeawaysOnly partner with people who have skin in the game.The number one reason why people make a mistake and experience their worst investment is that they don't do their research.You'll go out of business if you cannot deploy your capital well.Actionable adviceIf you feel like something's off, and it doesn't add up or make sense, don't do it.Morad’s recommendationMorad recommends reading Think and Grow Rich and The 10X Rule: The Only Difference Between Success and Failure to gain business acumen. No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsMorad's number one goal for the next 12 months is to continue making an impact on the Houston real estate business. He also wants to get to the top 10 agents in Houston. He’s currently in the top 200.Parting words "Thank you, Andrew, for giving me a chance to talk to your audience."Morad Fiki [spp-transcript] Connect with Morad FikiLinkedInFacebookTwitterInstagramYouTubeWebsiteAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast