My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Adam Rosen is an entrepreneur who loves to support business owners and share his rollercoaster startup journey to help those on a similar path.STORY: As soon as Adam was done with college, he co-founded a business. He gave his all to the business for four years and enjoyed little success.LEARNING: Get to product market fit as quickly as possible. Focus on delivering something that the client wants to use forever. “Every single business owner has a responsibility to build their company to sell it from the start.”Adam Rosen Guest profileAdam Rosen is an entrepreneur who loves to support business owners and share his rollercoaster startup journey to help those on a similar path. He is the founder of Email Outreach Company, where they do automated email outreach to get startups on more sales appointments without the hassle.Worst investment everComing out of college, Adam had an excellent opportunity to make a good amount of money. He decided to start his first business—with two other college mates. The company wasn’t funded in the first year. The founders didn’t take any salary from the business. Adam had to work in a restaurant on weekends to keep his bank account going. In the second year, the founders raised capital.The next four years were a roller coaster. The company had some decent success, but Adam never paid himself. He was literally living on his credit card for years, thinking he would get his big break soon. And it never happened.The founders sold the company but didn’t get much for it. They simply took the exit deal to ensure their customers could end up in a good spot and the business could live on.Lessons learnedGet to product market fit as quickly as possible.Churn can be a killer for any business.Find the reality of your business as soon as possible; are you profitable or not?Andrew’s takeawaysBefore entering the startup world, understand that you’ll be trapped in that situation. So be sure you’re doing the right thing with the right people.The startup world has no badge of honor for not paying yourself.Focus on delivering something that the client wants to use forever.Actionable adviceFocus on profitable systems. Can your system get you new customers and keep those customers? Can it make your business profitable? On top of all that, build to sell from the start.Adam’s recommendationsIf you want more sales appointments, or you’re doing cold emails alone and not getting the responses you wish, Adam recommends checking out eocworks.com. You can book a call through his calendar directly on the website. He’ll talk with you about either his company doing this for you, helping you with your current approach, or just talking about startup sales and getting more sales opportunities.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsAdam’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to get a 2x revenue offer for his company. On top of that, he wants to be happy, enjoy life and keep traveling the world.Parting words “Thank you, Andrew; keep up the good work. For everybody, just keep on going. Perseverance and spirit have done wonders in all ages.”Adam Rosen [spp-transcript] Connect with Adam RosenLinkedInInstagramPodcastWebsiteAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

In this presentation, I will introduce you to our FVMR investment frameworkAnd will apply it to assess the attractiveness of the top five developed countries in the world: US, Japan, Germany, UK, and France.Click here to get the PDF with all charts and graphsWhat do you think: Which of the largest country’s stock markets is most attractive?What is your investment framework?Our investment strategies for ETFs and stocks come from our FVMR frameworkWe backtest and optimize the strategy for the factors that have worked best in that marketWe do all our research in-houseWe don’t rely on other people’s researchWe might, of course, get ideas from others, but we then test those ideas in our FVMR frameworkThe benefit of an investment framework is that it forces disciplineIt’s easy to be emotionally affected by market events, which can cause you to make rash and costly decisionsTo avoid this, we stick to our frameworkA robust framework means our strategy relies on data and structure rather than just a feeling or an opinionManagement is responsible for producing earningsInvestors set the price the company trades atThere are Four Elements to our FrameworkFundamentals: Strong profitability shows a company is managed well. We prefer high or rising profitability.Valuation: Shows how the market perceives the stock. We prefer good fundamentals at relatively cheap valuations.Momentum: We try to avoid “value traps” by looking for positive price and earnings momentum. At times, low momentum signals an out-of-favor opportunity.Risk: Prefer low business and price risk. Not every stock is going to fly; some just provide stable returns and strong dividends.For this study, we look at the top 5 Developed Market countries ranked by GDPUSA – US$23trnJapan – US$4.9trnGermany – US$4.2trnUK – US$3.2trnFrance – US$2.9trnEBITDA margin remains high in the US and UK at above 20%, lowest in Japan at 13%Net margin is a remarkably high 12% in the US and UK, double the global LT averageAt 7%, Japan is still double its long-term net margin of 3%At 7% Germany is nearly double its long-term average of 4%US companies have a relatively high 19% ROE, above its 16% LT averageJapan’s low 9% ROE  is partially driven by the low interest rate environmentGermany is just slightly above its 11% long-term averageEuropean companies have paid out more cash to shareholdersUS companies also return cash to shareholders through buybacks in addition to dividends, a reason this number is relatively lowShareholder yield is about equal across these marketsUS remains the most expensive market at 19x PEJapan, Germany, and France at 13xUK super cheap at 10xOn a PB basis, the US is very expensive at 3.7xUK companies are asset-heavyUS revenue/asset: 0.70xJapan: 0.69x, Germany: 0.58x, UK: 0.57x, and France: 0.52xUS companies are most expensive again with price-to-cash flow at 13xAbout 50% higher than the others, which hover between 7x and 8x price-to-cash flowSuper low US dividend yield due to expensive market and payouts coming from share buybacksThe UK market now pays a high 4.2%This shows that the market is cheap and also that inflation expectations are highConsidering ROE/PB, UK is super cheap, and the US is 2x as expensive6x PB in UK for a 16% ROEEarnings expectations collapsed in France, Germany, and UK, but have bounced backHighest expected EPS recovery in the UK2023 growth is expected to be strongest in Japan, weakest in UKOver the past 6-months Germany and France are up about 12%, UK only half that, US neg.The US market is up most over the past three years, Germany is about flat over three yearsYTD winners are Germany and FranceThings to consider about EuropeLack of tech stocks in Europe compared to the US, so when value does well European markets do wellChina reopening is positively impacting sentimentSome speculate that lower oil prices and China opening may prevent a recession in EuropeRisk is that ECB will hike more than the FedUK and Italy have the highest 10-year govt bond ratesEurope – 2.8%Germany – 2.2%UK – 3.3%France – 6%Italy – 4.0%Spain – 3.2%So many risksNuclear warEnergy spikeUS recessionSlower-than-expected China recoveryKey points and the bottom lineConsidering all four elements: Fundamentals, Valuation, Momentum, and RiskThe US is expensive, and the UK looks cheapUK looks most interesting among the top 5 stock marketsClick here to get the PDF with all charts and graphs Andrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Terri Spath is the founder and CIO of Zuma Wealth LLC and has earned top performance marks stewarding billions of dollars at large investment shops through the booms and busts of the past quarter-century.STORY: At the height of the Dotcom boom, Terri bought—on behalf of clients—some terrific companies because she knew how to value, assess, and analyze them. But she kept holding onto the companies when the market tanked instead of selling.LEARNING: Know when to buy and when to sell. Don’t get too attached to your favorite stocks. “If you have great self-discipline, you can figure out how to make money in your sleep.”Terri Spath Guest profileTerri Spath is the founder and CIO of Zuma Wealth LLC and has earned top performance marks stewarding billions of dollars at large investment shops through the booms and busts of the past quarter-century.A renowned expert, Terri is a regular CNBC and Bloomberg TV guest and a sought-after industry speaker. She was named a “Top 10 Inspiring Women of 2022” and shortlisted by the Women in Asset Management awards. She has earned the CFA charter, the CFP® certification, an MBA from Columbia University, and an AB from the University of Michigan.Terri started investing when her father introduced her to the concept of compound interest when she learned she could make money in her sleep.Worst investment everWhen Terri came out of Columbia Business School, she got hired by a big company on the West Coast. She had already started investing, as she had learned a lot when studying for her CFA. The philosophy of Columbia Business School is very much in line with Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. The philosophy is that value investing relies on picking good companies that have great moats around them and strong management, and you can buy them at a dirt-cheap price. Terri came out of Colombia, well-trained in that arena, and when she started working for the big company, she started putting those ideas to work.At the time, more and more technology and internet companies were coming out. Terri was assigned to the industry and covered all the stocks under that umbrella. She was buying conservatively, following what she had learned at Columbia about buying stuff cheap. Terri didn’t get trapped in the excitement of the new companies. She followed the philosophy she had learned.Terri bought some terrific companies on behalf of clients because she knew how to value, assess, and analyze them. Terri believed she had made good purchases.The frenzy and excitement in internet retail and technology companies pulled the market up. Then some of those companies started to collapse. This ripple effect killed the technology stocks, the NASDAQ, and the broader markets.When everything started going down, Terri decided to hang onto those stocks. She didn’t acknowledge it was time to sell. Terri’s biggest mistake was holding onto what she thought were great companies in terrible markets.Lessons learnedPay attention to the broader markets too.Have the discipline to evaluate when to buy and when to fold to avoid losing your profits.Don’t get too attached to your favorite stocks; always know when to get out.Make sure that you understand the risk.Most investors tend to be better at one side of the trade than the other, but balancing both sides will bring you more success.Have a sell strategy and apply it regularly.Andrew’s takeawaysEmploy stop losses to help you sell when the investment is not working.Don’t fight the flow of funds.Actionable adviceConsistency, consistency, consistency. Have a consistent sell discipline and stick to it. This will protect your downside and prevent you from losing unnecessarily.Terri’s recommendationsTerri has tons of information on her Zuma Wealth website on ensuring you participate in the upside of the market without losing too much.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsTerri’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to motivate and educate people on how to invest properly.Parting words “Don’t be afraid of losing money. Stay disciplined and keep listening to this podcast so you don’t have to make the same mistakes.”Terri Spath [spp-transcript] Connect with Terri SpathLinkedInFacebookYouTubeWebsiteAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Brett Martin is co-founder of Kumospace, the virtual HQ for remote teams, and Charge Ventures, a pre/seed VC based in Brooklyn, NY.STORY: Brett started a company and got just 20% ownership; the rest went to investors who eventually walked away, leaving the business to crumble.LEARNING: If you’re in a partnership that’s not working, you must push it to a conclusion. Complaining won’t resolve your problems. If you can, bootstrap your company instead of taking money from venture capitalists. “A good business partnership is like a relationship. You have to like the person, respect and trust them.”Brett Martin Guest profileBrett Martin is co-founder of Kumospace, the virtual HQ for remote teams, and Charge Ventures, a pre/seed VC based in Brooklyn, NY. He also serves as Adjunct Professor at Columbia Business School, where he teaches data analytics. He loves you.Worst investment everBrett had just come off his first failed startup. He moved back to New York City, where his friend connected him with a job at an early-stage venture capital fund. The fund owners said they were looking to turn the fund into a venture studio, where they build and invest in companies. Brett wanted to start his own company, and he figured he might as well do it with the fund.The fund gave Brett a pretty lousy deal on ownership. He owned just 20% of the company he founded. He got funding of $150,000 for giving up 80% of his company. Brett took the money and got the company up and running. He built a proof of concept and started pitching to venture capitalists. A couple of venture capitalists loved his pitch and had another meeting with them. Brett was able to raise a million dollars in funding. He launched his company, and it was off to a good start. The business received 300 press mentions in six months.Brett had a problem, though. He had a totally fractured investor base. Some people had put in millions of dollars and owned 10% of the company. Others put in a couple of $100,000 and had 60% ownership. Brett had no control over his company, eventually bringing down the business.At the time, the company had millions of users, and Brett wanted to keep going and figure out how to make it work. Unfortunately, all the funding dried up, and all the investors walked away. And so Brett was scrambling to raise money just to keep the company afloat. He did that for six months until he finally got someone willing to recapitalize the company and start the whole thing again. All Brett needed to do was get his investors to agree to that deal. They wouldn’t take it, and the entire thing blew up. Brett and everyone who had invested in his company lost all their money.Lessons learnedIf you’re in a partnership that’s not working, you have to push it to a conclusion.Complaining won’t resolve your problems.If you can, bootstrap your company instead of taking money from venture capitalists.Lean on your legal counsel for advice on the best deal to take when building a partnership.As an investor investing in a business owner, always ask yourself if this is this someone you want to work with for the next ten years. If not, don’t give them your money.Andrew’s takeawaysIdentify your problems and solve them.Cash flow is your ultimate source of value.Actionable adviceThink long-term when forming partnerships. Don’t take the deal just because it’s there or because someone’s dangling money in front of you. Or just because you’re pressured to work with people you’re not excited about. Always hold out for people that you love and respect.Brett’s recommendationsBrett recommends checking out Stats For Startups, a platform for entrepreneurs who want to understand how to describe their SaaS businesses. You’ll find all the stats or metrics you need to value your startup.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsBrett’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to lock down a long-term partnership deal he’s working on.Parting words “Be bold, be curious, and have fun.”Brett Martin [spp-transcript] Connect with Brett MartinLinkedInTwitterInstagramWebsiteAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Damon Pistulka earned a Mechanical Engineering degree in college, then worked in technical and managerial roles, including designing, building, and operating facilities.STORY: Damon’s company focused on building a client’s business for sale. The client pulled out of a great offer at the last minute.LEARNING: Always have a contract in place and ensure it has an exit clause that protects you. Diversify to avoid concentration risk. “Always have an exit clause when leveraging your time against future value with clients.”Damon Pistulka Guest profileDamon Pistulka earned a Mechanical Engineering degree in college, then worked in technical and managerial roles, including designing, building, and operating facilities. Over the decades, he has led various businesses. Now, he helps owners build valuable businesses that they can sell when they want to.Worst investment everWhen Damon started his current company, it had what would have been considered a dream client. Damon and his team allowed that client to take up all their focus. The company got the client through the Exit Your Way process in the hope of exiting them with a very nice return.After about 24 months of work, the client just decided to stop. Damon and the client were sitting at the table one day with a buyer willing to pay them $10 million more than they’d initially asked for. The client just said no to the offer and insisted the business was worth more than that.Damon and his team had invested a lot of time into the sale. They had focused entirely on this client and had not built other clients up. Damon’s company was to be compensated with a portion of the exit proceeds from the sale. After the client refused the offer, Damon had to start his business over. It took him almost 12 months to get back after that.Lessons learnedAlways have a contract in place and ensure it has an exit clause that protects you.Help your clients understand what it means to have life-changing money in front of them and turn it down.Andrew’s takeawaysDiversify to avoid concentration risk.You’re going to have losses in the beginning.Don’t be overconfident when you get a good deal on the table; take it.Consider when it’s best to get compensated in the percentage of a transaction or the percentage of shares in a company.Actionable adviceMake sure you have an out clause in case someone wants to say no so that your business stays safe.Damon’s recommendationsDamon recommends checking out exityourway.com, where you’ll find many guides and videos.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsDamon’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to see through a significant marketing content development project the company has been working on. He believes this project is going to transform the way that he does business.Parting words “Thank you for having me, Andrew.”Damon Pistulka [spp-transcript] Connect with Damon PistulkaLinkedInTwitterFacebookYouTubeWebsiteAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

How rising rates and oil prices are contributing to 6.4% inflation in the USClick here to get the PDF with all charts and graphsWhat do you think: Are we headed for a recession or has the Fed engineered a soft landing?Jan. US CPI was up 6.4% YoY, continuing its slide from the June 2022 9.1% YoY peak, driven by high food and energy-related productsFood was up 10.1% YoY but continued its 5th straight month of slowdown, driven by food consumed at home was up 11.3%The energy component of CPI rose 8.7% YoY; Oil was $100/bbl in Jul-2022; it’s now down to $80bbl. Oil price is the driver; however, energy commodities prices were up only 2.8%, thanks to a slower oil and gas price riseAll other items excluding food and energy never rose as much and are coming down more slowly. This group benefited from negative used vehicle prices, but shelter costs keep it highOver the long term, energy, despite its small weight in CPI, drives consumer pricesPutin’s invasion of Ukraine was not the primary driver of inflation; instead, it was the oil and gas price rise in 2021 when post gov’t lockdown demand bounced backHome prices rose massively thanks to Fed’s nearly-free money, and soon could start contractingThe oil price fell 6.1% YoY in Jan, down from its Jun-22 high rise of 60.8%; disinflation is in full swingHome prices continued slowing from the July 2021 peak YoY change of 18%Key pointsJan. US CPI was up 6.4% YoY, continuing its fall from its 9.1% peak in June 2022The 6.4% level was kept high mainly by high food and energy pricesIt was a slight YoY slowdown compared to Dec-22, which was 6.5%Food was up 10.1% YoY but continued its 5th straight month of declineFood peaked in Aug-22 at 11.4%The 10.1% food price rise was driven by food consumed at home which was up 11.3%Though oil price has fallen, prior oil price shocks are still feeding into the food supply chainIn addition, food supply chains seemed to still be damaged by the US gov’t economy lockdownEnergy component of CPI rose 8.7% YoY, Oil was $100/bbl in Jul-2022, now at $80bblWhen you smooth price changes with a 12mma you see that oil price is the driverEnergy commodities prices were up only 2.8%, thanks to a slower oil and gas price riseEnergy services were up 15.6%, driven by the prior oil price spikes feeding throughAll other items didn’t rise as much and are coming down more slowlyThis component of CPI is slow to adjustThis is why a few months ago, when I last looked at US inflation, I mentioned that inflation was unlikely to come crashing downEx-food and energy items benefited from fall in used vehicle prices; shelter remains highPrice rises were low for Apparel (3.1%), New vehicles (5.8%), Used cars and trucks (Negative 11.6%), and Medical care commodities (3.4%)Energy, despite its small weight in CPI, seems to always drive consumer pricesDid Putin’s invasion of Ukraine drive inflation?Oil and gas prices started their rise in 2021 when post gov’t lockdown demand kicked onHome prices rose massively thanks to Fed’s nearly-free money, now falling to neg?Oil price has already moved to negative, it looks like disinflation is in full swingThe 2007 YoY housing price increase maxed at 10%; it peaked at 19% in July 2021 Click here to get the PDF with all charts and graphs Andrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Pia Singh is a Business Growth Strategist with 15+ years of experience in helping companies find ways to save on the bottom line and drive topline growth. She is a recognized Growth Strategist with excellent strategic planning capabilities.STORY: Pia invested a substantial amount of her wedding money in a friend’s business. She lost everything she had invested and had to take a loan to pay for her wedding.LEARNING: There are no shortcuts in investing; you must do your due diligence to succeed. Don’t make a rash investment decision without doing your research. Mistakes are inevitable, so be prepared. “We make bad decisions all the time, and that’s okay.”Pia Singh Guest profilePia Singh is a Business Growth Strategist with 15+ years of experience in helping companies find ways to save on the bottom line and drive topline growth. She is a recognized Growth Strategist with excellent strategic planning capabilities.She is a part of 2 World Records in Training and Business Growth and has authored four books on business startups and scaleups.Nowadays, Pia is applying years of experience to build a Brain Health Company - The MindSmith.Worst investment everPia was 29 and was supposed to get married in about three to four months. Her parents went on and on about everything they needed to do for the wedding. The wedding planning got out of hand and out of budget. Pia started thinking of what she could do to help her parents.One of Pia’s very good friends and her ex-colleague contacted her out of the blue and told her of a business she was building. The friend wanted Pia to be a part of it.Pia met her friend, who showed her the business plan. It looked like a beautiful plan. It was all on paper; the numbers were all there, and they were achievable. Pia believed the business would give her good money in the next three to four months—which she badly needed for her wedding.Pia pulled a substantial amount out of the funds kept for her wedding and invested in her friend’s business. Pia tried to apply all the processes to make money from the business, but four months later, she had not made any money. It was almost time for her wedding, and Pia didn’t have enough money saved. She had to take a loan to compensate for the funds she withdrew to invest in the business.Pia eventually gave up on the business and had to pay the bank loan out of pocket. Pia experienced a double loss; the amount she invested in the company and the interest she paid for the loan.Lessons learnedThere are no shortcuts in investing; you must do your due diligence to succeed.Before you invest in any business, talk to as many people as possible within that industry to see if this has been done before and if it’s viable.Pick the brains of the experts you have in your community so you can learn from their mistakes.Let the experts do their work if you lack expertise in a particular area.Andrew’s takeawaysDon’t make a rash investment decision without doing your research.Good things can happen to you through luck. But you can’t build a life around chance.Nothing good comes easy. And if you see something really good coming easy, start asking questions.Set up a process.Mistakes are inevitable, so be prepared.Actionable adviceDo your research because nothing speaks to success more than the efforts that you’ve put in. If you have experts around you, talk to them. If you don’t know about something, and you want to get into it, talk to at least 20 people from different geographies and directions who are involved with that sort of thing, who have tried it, to understand what it takes to succeed.Pia’s recommendationsPia recommends subscribing to her MindSmith LinkedIn page to access resources and monthly lives on various topics such as self-esteem. You’ll also find tips and tricks, so you don’t have to wait for an appointment with a doctor or an expert.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsPia’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to build a task force across India that will ensure people are trained in primary healthcare so they can identify and refer people to get treatment before it gets out of hand.Parting words “Good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgment.”Pia Singh [spp-transcript] Connect with Pia SinghLinkedInTwitterInstagramFacebookWebsiteAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Raghav Kapoor is the CEO and Co-Founder of Smartkarma, an Asia-focused Investment Research Network that serves global institutional investors, corporates, and private wealth.STORY: Raghav invested 2% of his portfolio in a biotech company in the US simply because it was run by people he believed had a good reputation. He ended up losing 98% of his investment.LEARNING: Invest within your area of competence or expertise. Capital preservation and compounding are essential. Great people get it wrong too. “I try to get in early on an investment that I know is so simple that I can explain it in one sentence, and almost everyone would agree to it.”Raghav Kapoor Guest profileRaghav Kapoor is the CEO and Co-Founder of Smartkarma, an Asia-focused Investment Research Network that serves global institutional investors, corporates, and private wealth.Subscribe to Smartkarma Plus - Institutional Level Investment Insight for the Aspirational Investor at a special welcome offer of just $1.99 for the first month.Worst investment everIn 2021, Raghav had an excellent portfolio performance behind him. He got overzealous and invested in a US biotech company. There were a lot of things that looked really great about this company. For starters, the company had been operational for about 15 years. They were developing a new platform for cancer research and drugs, and the specific type of cancers they were trying to cure were called orphan cancers. These are cancers that affect a tiny percentage of the global population. But they’re almost always fatal. Because they affect such a small percentage of the population, the Big Pharma companies don’t have a big incentive to try and come up with medication.This company firmly believed it could cure some orphan cancers using hormone treatment. They had been doing this research for many years and had quite a bit of success. At some point, the company joined a more prominent group well-known in the US. The group had an impeccable track record and had taken a controlling stake in this business.In addition to the research that they were doing, the company was also sitting on a beautiful piece of real estate in downtown New York—that alone was worth almost 40-50 % of their market cap. Because most of the company’s value and revenue at that time came from that commercial real estate, it was misclassified in all the industries as a real estate company even though it was a biotech company. And so it used to trade at a discount to book value, whereas biotech stocks back then were trading at very rich valuations.The company hired a guy heading the oncology practice at Novartis, one of the largest Big Pharma firms. He joined as the CEO of this small company and went on to build a solid bench of illustrious managers and board members. The company’s first drug went into phase three trials. According to initial valuation, even the smallest of these drugs would generate about $5 billion per year of revenue stream. When you look at how these things are valued, you can get at least a two times revenue multiple because these are very high-margin businesses. So it looked likely that the company would get bought out even before the trial results came out.After analyzing all these factors, Raghav predicted that the payoff of this investment would be about a 5,000% return on the upside. He decided to put 1% of his portfolio into this investment. Raghav figured that if this led to that 5,000% return, he would get many times his entire portfolio back. And if it dropped 60%, that would shave off about 60 basis points from his book in a year when he was up 40% to 50% overall.The company did a small placement of $30 to $40 million. Raghav thought that was tactically very smart because such clinical trials are expensive. This placement brought in four or five pure healthcare investors, adding to the company’s credibility. The company also reclassified from real estate to healthcare, which would now unlock more value. The stock fell below the placement price, which had come at a discount. Raghav decided to double down on his position. So it went from being 1% to a 2% position.Raghav waited and waited for something good to happen and push the stock up. Then one day, investors woke up to the news that the phase three trials had failed by a vast margin (from $50 to $1). Raghav lost 98% of his investment.Lessons learnedWhen investing, don’t step very far out of your area of expertise or competence.It’s tough to get an excellent risk-adjusted return when you take bets outside your area of competence.Sizing and trading decisions have a tremendous impact on eventual returns or losses.Just because great people are involved in a business doesn’t necessarily make the business successful.Capital preservation and compounding are essential.Andrew’s takeawaysBe more cautious as you grow older and avoid high-risk investments.Great people get it wrong too. Don’t blindly follow them, as you don’t know their objectivesBe on high alert when your portfolio is doing great.Actionable adviceBefore investing, ask yourself if you know enough about this industry or space to have some edge. Do you have a really good feeling about this? When new information comes, you will learn how to process it quite intuitively.Raghav’s recommendationsRaghav recommends Smartkarma as the go-to resource for anyone focusing on Asian companies and looking for sound independent research.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsRaghav’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to spend a lot more time grooming leaders within his company and meeting external stakeholders more. Raghav also wants to prioritize his health a lot more this year.Parting words “I’ve never stopped investing because I think it’s the biggest superpower that nobody teaches you in school. It’s also something you can do until the moment you die. So never stop investing.”Raghav Kapoor [spp-transcript] Connect with Raghav KapoorLinkedInTwitterYouTubeBlogWebsitePodcastAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

EM don’t have reserve currency status, unlike DM they never benefited from zero ratesOver the past 12 months, the World average 3mth gov’t bond rate rose from 1.7% to 5.0%That 3.3ppts rise highlights the rising interest rate environment we have been living throughIn the Developed markets 3mth rates rose from zero 12 months ago, before the Ukraine war started, to the current 3.3%Despite this strong rise, DM’s interest rates remained at a 1.7ppt discount to the world averageMeaning EMs were rising equally fastSo, let’s look at EMsOver the past year, 3mth rates rose from an already high 4.3% to 7.4%, up 3.1ppts, double the rate of DMs and a 2.4ppt premium to the World averageDM 10yr yield starting to fall, anticipating lower inflation; EM flat for a yearWorld LT interest rates rose from 2.8% 12 months ago to 4% today, a 1.2ppts riseDeveloped markets saw a YoY interest rate rise from 1.2% to 2.9%, up 1.7ppts riseDM’s discount to the world interest rates rose from negative 1.6ppts to negative 1.1pptsEM had a small rise from 5.1% to 5.6% YoY, a small 0.5ppts rise on an already high rateEM premium to world fell from 2.4ppts to 1.6pptsKey points & the bottom lineEM never had reserve currency status, so unlike DM, they never benefited from zero ratesSince rates have always been higher, borrowers in EMs have not had the same incentive to borrow as in the DMs; therefore, the balance sheet quality is strongUS led the rise, DM Europe is catching up, DM Pacific is now at a deep discount to world ratesDM Americas rose from 0.2% to 4.7%, up 4.5pptsIts relative discount to the world narrowed from negative 1.5ppts to negative 0.3pptsUS led the rise, DM Europe is catching up, Japan now at a deep discount to world ratesDM Europe rose from negative 0.4% to 2.5%, up 2.9pptsIts relative discount to the world widened from negative 2.1ppts to negative 2.5pptsDM Pacific rose from 0% to 1.1%Its relative discount widened from negative 1.7ppts to negative 3.9pptsDM Europe LT rates rose most aggressively from near zero, preventing a currency collapseDM Americas rose from 1.8% to 3.4%, up 1.7ppts; rel. discount narrowed from -1% to -0.6%But LT rates fell slightly in January showing the market believes inflation has been tamedDM Europe rose from 0.6% to 2.8%, up 2.2ppts; rel. discount narrowed from -2.1% to -1.2%DM Pacific rose from 0.7% to 1.4%, 0.7ppts; rel. discount widened from -2% to -2.6%Key points & the bottom lineUS led the rise, DM Europe is catching up, DM Pacific is now at a deep discount to world ratesDM Europe LT rates rose most aggressively from near zero, preventing a currency collapseImportantly, LT rates fell slightly in January showing the market believes inflation has been tamedClick here to get the PDF with all charts and graphs Andrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Praveen Kumar Rajbhar is an entrepreneur, founder, and CEO SkillingYou, an employability Skills Focused EdTech startup in rural India.STORY: When Praveen started his first startup, he spent money to hire many people, buy a lot of gadgets, and rent a huge office space. The business collapsed in less than two years.LEARNING: Get the right mentor to guide you on how to make your startup a success. You don’t need a big team to be successful. Get on-time and accurate financial statements every month. “Having the right mentor will help you create a great company.”Praveen Kumar Rajbhar Guest profilePraveen Kumar Rajbhar is an entrepreneur, founder, and CEO SkillingYou, an employability Skills Focused EdTech startup in rural India. It’s one of the top 100 promising startups ranked by Google and the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology and is being incubated by Google, EdStart, Agora, and TiE.Praveen has worked for over 13 years in corporates such as Axis Bank, Home Credit, Amway, SBI Cards, and AU Bank.Worst investment everPraveen left his corporate job and started his first startup. Instead of controlling his expenses, Praveen hired more people than he needed, bought unnecessary gadgets, and rented colossal office space. In total, Praveen spent over $60,000 to run the startup. Being the family’s only breadwinner, he was soon in a lot of debt. The business collapsed in under two years.Lessons learnedMake sure that you understand your product before testing your market.People are your biggest strength as a founder and CEO. So surround yourself with the right mentors if you want to run a successful startup, don’t play it all alone.Work with a mentor in your industry or who has walked the path you want.Practical learning will give you strength and maturity, and you’ll know what not to do next.You can run a successful business with a small team.Andrew’s takeawaysA startup is a lifestyle.If you have a startup and are trying to grow it into something big, make sure you close your financial books monthly and have on-time and accurate financial statements.People want to help and are okay with sharing their experience and knowledge, so reach out.Actionable adviceBefore starting a startup, know your “why” because it will be a challenging journey, so you must understand why you want to do it. If you can’t do it for five years, don’t do it for five minutes.Praveen’s recommendationsPraveen recommends checking out the My Worst Investment Ever website to learn what successful people did wrong and learn from their mistakes.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsPraveen’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to impact one million students with essential employability skills that will help them get a job.Parting words “Just love whatever you’re doing. Never give up; it’s going to be a beautiful world tomorrow for you.”Praveen Kumar Rajbhar [spp-transcript] Connect with Praveen Kumar RajbharLinkedInTwitterFacebookInstagramYouTubeBlogWebsiteAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast