My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: William Bernstein is a neurologist, a co-founder of Efficient Frontier Advisors – an investment management firm, and has written several titles on finance and economic history.STORY: William lost money after investing in palladium futures under the belief that a couple of physicists had perfected the technique of cold fusion to get helium.LEARNING: Never invest based on the headlines. Something that everyone knows isn’t worth knowing. “Something that everyone knows has already been pounded into the market, so it isn’t worth knowing.”William Bernstein Guest profileWilliam Bernstein is a neurologist, a co-founder of Efficient Frontier Advisors – an investment management firm, and has written several titles on finance and economic history. He has contributed to the peer-reviewed finance literature and has written for several national publications, including Money Magazine and The Wall Street Journal.He has produced several finance titles and four volumes of history, The Birth of Plenty, A Splendid Exchange, Masters of the Word, and The Delusions of Crowds, about, respectively, the economic growth inflection of the early nineteenth century, the history of world trade, the effects of access to technology on human relations and politics, and the history and social psychology of mass manias. He was also the 2017 winner of the CFA Institute’s James R. Vertin Award.Worst investment everAbout 35 years ago, a couple of physicists announced that they had perfected the technique of cold fusion, which enables you to take hydrogen atoms, smash them together, and get helium—the same thing that goes on in a hydrogen bomb. If that were the case, then it meant there was now a source of energy that was too cheap to meter. The limiting factor in that technique was palladium, which was the catalyst. So, palladium went from $100 to $400 an ounce. William thought it would be a good idea to buy palladium futures. He lost his money in that investment.Lessons learnedNever invest based on the headlines.Something that everyone knows isn’t worth knowing.Andrew’s takeawaysDon’t be lured by the seductiveness of headlines.Actionable adviceStart slow, see how you react to the bear market, and find out your actual risk tolerance in the real world because there’s a big gap between talking to talk and walking the walk.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsWilliam’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to read good nonfiction books and then write reviews.Parting words “Just keep buying.”William Bernstein [spp-transcript] Connect with William BernsteinWebsiteBooksAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever PodcastFurther reading mentionedAngus Deaton, Economics in America: An Immigrant Economist Explores the Land of Inequality

Warning Sign #1 - Inverted yield curveIt’s not the first time the Fed has fought inflationFed has been fighting inflation with its main toolSteep rate hikes have historically preceded recessionsFed’s tool to fight inflation is raising the federal funds rateThis is the fastest and most aggressive rate-hike cycle by the Fed since the 1980sAfter the 0.25%-hike in Feb 2023, the current rate-hike cycle became the most aggressive since the 1980sThe Fed has hiked rates by 5.25% in the current cycleThis has resulted in short-term rates becoming higher than long-term (yield-cure inversion)Yield-curve inversion signals 4Q23 US recessionAll recessions in the US since 1968 were preceded by an inverted yield curveAs it turns, recession typically followsAverage time from inversion, until the recession started, was about 1 year (so 4Q23)Warning Sign #2 - Peak employmentUS is now at peak employmentPeak employment precedes recessionUnemployment now at 3.8% (same as April 2000)Puts upward pressure on wages, which is inflationaryOn the flip side, a strong labor market can keep the recession at bayWarning Sign #3 - Slowdown in bank lendingBusiness lending has slowed; real estate and consumer loans flatWarns about a slowdown in business activityWarning Sign #4 - Leading indicators falling & bankruptcies risingComposite leading indicators falling but seen a slight rebound recentlyThe indicator looks at factors aimed at providing early signals of turns in the business cycleWhile the indicator has given false signals before, recessions have typically followed large falls72 US bankruptcy filings in 1H23, more than the previous two yearsPrivate and public companies with over US$100m in assets at the time of bankruptcy filing“Filings in the first seven months of 2023 surpassed total filings for the previous year”S&P Global Market Intelligence recorded 64 corporate bankruptcy filings in July, the largest monthly total since March and more filings than in any single month in 2021 or 2022Warning Sign #5 - Weakening consumerRetail sales have been slowing, which typically precedes a recessionConsumer sentiment has fallen since 2020Credit card debt at US$1trn and growing while past due bills are rising Click here to get the PDF with all charts and graphs Andrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

Will the global CPI slowdown continue? Or will it rebound?Global MarketsGlobal CPI saw 2nd monthly uptick in August, DM remains below Global; DM and EM are now on the riseEconomies across the world have a GDP of about US$97trn and an average CPI of 5.1%DM has US$55trn GDP, and CPI was 4.3%EM has US$42trn GDP, and CPI was 6.1%World CPI was 5.1%, down 3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.3ppt, a 2nd monthly uptickDM CPI was 4.3%, down 3.3 ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.2pptsIt has moved from a 0.5ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 0.8ppt discountEM CPI was 6.1%, down 2.6 ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.6pptsIt has moved from a 0.7ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1ppt premiumDeveloped RegionsDM Americas CPI had 2nd uptick, DM Europe continues its slide, while DM Pacific stays flat at 4%DM Americas is the largest region, with US$28trn of GDP and 3.7% CPIDM Europe has US$15trn GDP and 5.2% CPIDM Pacific has US$8trn GDP and 3.9% CPIDM Americas CPI had 2nd uptick, DM Europe continues its slide, while DM Pacific stays flat at 4%DM Americas CPI was 3.7%, down 4.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4pptsIt has moved from a 0.1ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.4ppt discountDM Europe CPI was 5.2%, down 2.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1pptsIt has moved from a 0.1ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 0.1ppt premiumDM Pacific CPI was 3.9%, down 0.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1pptsIt has moved from a 3.9ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.2ppt discountEmerging RegionsCPI in EM Asia and Frontier markets re-igniting, EM Europe continues its riseEM Americas had a small GDP of US$4trn and CPI of 5.4%EM Asia had a massive GDP of US$29trn and 1.4% CPIEM Europe had a small US$4trn GDP and a massive 16.5% CPIEmerging Middle East & Africa had a tiny US$2trn GDP and a high 10.9% CPIFrontier markets had a US$3trn GDP and an extremely high 32.3% CPICPI in EM Asia and Frontier markets re-igniting, EM Europe continues its riseEM Americas CPI was 5.4%, down 3.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.1pptsIt has moved from a 1.3ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 0.3ppt premiumEM Asia CPI was 1.4%, down 2.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.3pptsIt has moved from a 4.5ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 3.6ppt discountEM Europe CPI was 16.5%, down 11.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 2.1pptsIt has moved from a 20.3ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 11.4ppt premiumEM ME&A CPI was 10.9%, up 3.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flatIt has moved from a 1ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 5.8ppt premiumFrontier CPI was 32.3%, up 6ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 2pptsIt has moved from a 18.3ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 27.2ppt premiumDeveloped Countries2nd US CPI uptick; strong 1st uptick in France; Japan and UK steady slide; Germany flatTop five DM countriesUS GDP was US$25trn, CPI of 3.7%Japan US$5trn and 3.1% CPIGermany US$4.3trn and 6.2% CPIUK: US$3.4trn, 6.8%France: US$3trn/4.6%USA CPI was 3.7%, down 4.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4pptsIt has moved from a 0.2ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.4ppt discountJapan CPI was 3.1%, up 0.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1pptsIt has moved from a 5ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 2ppt discountGermany CPI was 6.2%, down 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flatIt has moved from a 0.9ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.1ppt premiumUK CPI was 6.8%, down 3.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.2pptsIt has moved from a 1.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.7ppt premiumFrance CPI was 4.6%, down 1.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.5pptsIt has moved from a 2.2ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 0.5ppt discountEmerging CountriesChina CPI flat after July deflation; India slows; strong rise in Korea; rising in Russia and BrazilChina: US$20trn/0.1%India: US$3.5trn/6.8%Korea: US$1.8trn/3.5%Russia: US$1.8trn/5.2%Brazil: US$1.8trn/4.7%China CPI was 0.1%, down 2.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4pptsIt has moved from a 5.7ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 5ppt discountIndia CPI was 6.8%, down 0.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.6pptsIt has moved from a 1.1ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.7ppt premiumKorea CPI was 3.5%, down 2.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 1.2pptsIt has moved from a 2.4ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.6ppt discountRussia CPI was 5.2%, down 9.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.9pptsIt has moved from a 6.3ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 0.1ppt premiumBrazil CPI was 4.7%, down 4.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.6pptsIt has moved from a 0.8ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 0.4ppt discountDeveloped CountriesHighest CPISweden CPI was 7.6%, down 2.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.8pptsIt has moved from a 1.7ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.5ppt premiumAustria CPI was 7.5%, down 1.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4pptsIt has doubled its 1.2ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.4ppt premiumUK CPI was 6.8%, down 3.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.2pptsIt has moved from a 1.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.7ppt premiumIreland CPI was 6.4%, down 2.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.5pptsIt has moved from a 0.7ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.3ppt premiumGermany CPI was 6.2%, down 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flatIt has moved from a 0.9ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.1ppt premiumEmerging CountriesHighest CPIArgentina* CPI was 124.4%, up 45.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 11pptsIt has moved from a 70.4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 119.3ppt premiumTurkey CPI was 60.9%, down 19.6ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 11.3pptsIt has moved from a 72.4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 55.8ppt premiumEgypt CPI was 38.2%, up 23.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 1pptsIt has moved from a 6.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 33.2ppt premiumPakistan* CPI was 28%, up 0.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.9pptsIt has moved from a 19.1ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 22.9ppt premiumNigeria* CPI was 26.2%, up 5.6ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 1.7pptsIt has moved from a 12.5ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 21.1ppt premium*denotes Frontier marketDeveloped CountriesLowest CPISwitzerland CPI was 1.6%, down 1.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1pptsIt has moved from a 4.6ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 3.5ppt discountHong Kong CPI was 1.8%, down 0.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1pptsIt has moved from a 6.1ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 3.3ppt discountDenmark CPI was 2.4%, down 6.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.7pptsIt has moved from a 0.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.6ppt discountSpain CPI was 2.7%, down 7.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.3pptsIt has moved from a 2.4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.4ppt discountNetherlands CPI was 3%, down 9.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.5pptsIt has moved from a 4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.1ppt discountEmerging CountriesLowest CPIChina CPI was 0.1%, down 2.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4pptsIt has moved from a 5.7ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 5ppt discountJordan* CPI was 0.9%, down 4.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flatIt has moved from a 2.6ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 4.2ppt discountThailand CPI was 0.9%, down 6.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.5pptsIt has moved from a 0.2ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 4.2ppt discountSaudi Arabia CPI was 2%, down 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.4pptsIt has moved from a 5.2ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 3.1ppt discountMalaysia CPI was 2.1%, down 2.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flatIt has moved from a 3.4ppt discount to World CPI last year to the current 3ppt discount*denotes Frontier marketDeveloped CountriesLargest rise/Least fallJapan CPI was 3.1%, up 0.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1pptsIt has moved from a 5ppt discount to World CPI last year to the current 2ppt discountHong Kong CPI was 1.8%, down 0.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1pptsIt has moved from a 6.1ppt discount to World CPI last year to the current 3.3ppt discountIsrael CPI was 4.2%, down 0.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.8pptsIt has moved from a 3.5ppt discount to World CPI last year to the current 0.9ppt discountAustralia CPI was 6.1%, down 0.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flatIt has moved from a 1.1ppt discount to World CPI last year to the current 1ppt premiumGermany CPI was 6.2%, down 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flatIt has moved from a 0.9ppt discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.1ppt premiumEmerging CountriesLargest rise/Least fallArgentina* CPI was 124.4%, up 45.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 11pptsIt has moved from a 70.4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 119.3ppt premiumEgypt CPI was 38.2%, up 23.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 1pptsIt has moved from a 6.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 33.2ppt premiumNigeria* CPI was 26.2%, up 5.6ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 1.7pptsIt has moved from a 12.5ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 21.1ppt premiumHungary CPI was 16.6%, up 1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.3pptsIt has moved from a 7.5ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 11.5ppt premiumPakistan* CPI was 28%, up 0.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.9pptsIt has moved from a 19.1ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 22.9ppt premium*denotes Frontier marketDeveloped CountriesSmallest rise/Biggest fallNetherlands CPI was 3%, down 9.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.5pptsIt has moved from a 4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.1ppt discountSpain CPI was 2.7%, down 7.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.3pptsIt has moved from a 2.4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.4ppt discountDenmark CPI was 2.4%, down 6.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.7pptsIt has moved from a 0.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.6ppt discountBelgium CPI was 4.1%, down 5.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flatIt has moved from a 1.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1ppt discountPortugal CPI was 3.8%, down 5.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.6pptsIt has moved from a 0.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.3ppt discountEmerging CountriesSmallest rise/Biggest fallSri Lanka* CPI was 4%, down 57.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 2.3pptsIt has moved from a 53.8ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.1ppt discountEstonia* CPI was 4.8%, down 19.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.8pptsIt has moved from a 16.6ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 0.3ppt discountTurkey CPI was 60.9%, down 19.6ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 11.3pptsIt has moved from a 72.4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 55.8ppt premiumLithuania* CPI was 6.3%, down 16ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.3pptsIt has moved from a 14.2ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.2ppt premiumBulgaria* CPI was 7.8%, down 9.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.8pptsIt has moved from a 9.6ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.7ppt premium*denotes Frontier market Click here to get the PDF with all charts and graphs Andrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Swen Lorenz is a passionate public equity investor and the face of Undervalued-Shares.com. With over 30 years of experience in investing, Swen has a knack for finding exciting investment opportunities in very unexpected places, which he discovers while traveling the globe.STORY: Swen had a 12.5% stake in a German fund manager performing well. A competitor wanted to buy up companies in that space and approached Swen to ask other shareholders if they would sell. The company didn’t like this, asked the regulator to look into Swen’s affairs, and accused him of all sorts of things. It ended with Swen narrowly losing a contentious proxy battle.LEARNING: Carefully consider the liquidity of the investments you’re holding. Going above the disclosure threshold as an investor is dangerous. “I’m a big proponent of investing into stuff that’s liquid and where you can get in and out quite easily, even under extreme circumstances.”Swen Lorenz Guest profileSwen Lorenz is a passionate public equity investor and the face of Undervalued-Shares.com. With over 30 years of experience in investing, Swen has a knack for finding exciting investment opportunities in very unexpected places, which he discovers while traveling the globe. His trademarks include extensive investigative reports, which give investors plenty of inspiration and ideas to work with.Worst investment everSwen invested in a German wealth and fund manager. The company fitted his investment profile; it seemed appealing to his common sense and had huge potential. Swen felt that he was ahead of everyone.The company was listed in the late 1990s through a quiet listing. Swen liked that because there were virtually no headlines about this listing. The company came with excellent fundamentals, had superb dividend yield growth prospects, and growth rates from the past were excellent. So Swen was basically buying growth at value prices. The company’s market cap was just 50 million euros, but it set out to conquer the German market for independent fund managers and wealth managers and take away market share from the banks. That was the big idea. And that was something Swen believed in.In 2003, during the Dotcom crash, a major investor was forced to liquidate. Swen bought as many shares as possible and got a 10% stake in the company, eventually 12.5%. That meant that suddenly, he was on the public register. It also meant that he was highly visible. Swen had bought most of the stock at a pretty low price.The investment went great until a competitor wanted to buy up companies in that space. The competitor felt it was a great idea not to approach the CEO, the major shareholder, but to instead call Swen first. He asked him to do a survey as an independent entity and speak to shareholders to see if they were willing to sell.Little did Swen know what he would kick off by having that conversation with other shareholders. He informally approached the CEO and a variety of other large shareholders. The CEO Swen spoke to was not entirely straightforward. He said he wanted to sell, but that was not the case. The other stakeholders, however, wanted to sell. For most of them, it was just a matter of receiving the highest offer possible. But it all became complicated and contentious.The company eventually asked the regulator to look into Swen’s affairs and accused him of all sorts of things. It ended with Swen narrowly losing a contentious proxy battle. He spent half a million euros on lawyers. He was in the public and had the regulator looking into him. As a result, many personal things also happened, like losing friendships. Taking up the competitor’s request was a complete waste of Swen’s time and reputation.Lessons learnedCarefully consider the liquidity of the investments you’re holding.Going above the disclosure threshold (3%) as an investor is dangerous because it influences your thinking, and your ego gets involved.Carefully consider whether you want to be involved in activism because it’s complicated, time-consuming, and expensive.Andrew’s takeawaysLearn to spot narcissists and psychopaths, and educate yourself about that.Be very careful about the size of your liquidity, and expect that you will get a huge upside for taking on that liquidity risk.You must be able to outlast an irrational market when it’s not behaving as you think it should be.Swen’s recommendationsSwen recommends checking out The Activist Investor (TAI), a news aggregation website. Join the email list, and you’ll occasionally receive emails with the most recent articles about activist investing. You’ll also get academic research and quirky articles from niche publications that you wouldn’t usually come across—all for free.Swen also publishes a free weekly newsletter, Weekly Dispatches. It helps its readers shape their worldview, teaches new investment strategies, and gives new ideas that can be researched further.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsSwen’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to become a better writer and write more for his website while having fun.Parting words “Keep listening to podcasts like this one because, as an investor, you never stop learning, and you have to learn from others.”Swen Lorenz [spp-transcript] Connect with Swen LorenzLinkedInTwitterWebsiteBooksAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Paul Merriman is a nationally recognized authority on mutual funds, index investing, and asset allocation. After retiring in 2012 from Merriman Wealth Management, which he founded in 1983, Paul created The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, dedicated to providing investors of all ages with free information and tools to make better investment decisions.STORY: Paul has had a series of bad investments, and they were all driven by emotions. It wasn’t until Paul got the emotion out of that process that his money started to grow.LEARNING: The first five years of the money you put away can, theoretically, represent 40% of the value of your portfolio over the long term. Start investing early so that you can benefit from the compounding effect. “It was not until I got the emotion out of the investing process that I started to get the money to truly grow. And to realize that the greatest success in this process is time.”Paul Merriman Guest profilePaul Merriman is a nationally recognized authority on mutual funds, index investing, and asset allocation.After retiring in 2012 from Merriman Wealth Management, which he founded in 1983, Paul created The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, dedicated to providing investors of all ages with free information and tools to make better investment decisions.Paul is the author of eight books, including We’re Talking Millions! 12 Simple Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement.At his website, he provides over 700 articles, podcasts, and videos, plus recommended mutual fund and Best-In-Class ETF portfolios at Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab.Worst investment everPaul has had several bad investments, and they all look alike. Some of these mistakes were in the commodities market, others were loaning money to friends, and some were investing in early small companies. Other mistakes involved trying to trade the market and make quick money. Though different, all these mistakes had one thing in common: they were driven by emotions. It wasn’t until Paul got emotions out of that process that his money started to grow.Lessons learnedThe first five years of the money you put away can, theoretically, represent 40% of the value of your portfolio over the long term.Andrew’s takeawaysIf you don’t get it right at a young age, your time will run out and you won’t get the value of compounding.Paul’s recommendationsPaul recommends reading his free book We’re Talking Millions! 12 Simple Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement. He also recommends checking out BootCamp for Investors on his website, where you’ll find eight topics that will teach you the essential things you need to know, including how much you need in bonds, what equity asset classes you should have, how to take money out of your investments at retirement, and more.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsPaul’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to get his new program at Western Washington University up and running.Parting words “The payoff for getting a good education is the biggest return you’re ever going to get. So find yourself some good teachers.”Paul Merriman [spp-transcript] Connect with Paul MerrimanLinkedInFacebookTwitterYouTubeWebsitePodcastBooksAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Dr. Vikram Mansharamani is a global trend-watcher who shows people how to anticipate the future, manage risk, and spot opportunities.STORY: Vikram invested in a small commercial condo that he hoped to rent to Ph.D. students, but they weren’t interested. He had to sell it after a few years of no income. He took a 50% loss.LEARNING: Liquidity is not a constant. If the timing of your thesis is off, then you’re wrong. The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain liquid. “As long as you have liquidity available, or the option to redeploy or invest more, then you’re going to be fine because, over time, investments work out. It’s just getting caught at the wrong time and the wrong illiquid investment that could really hurt you.”Vikram Mansharamani Guest profileDr Vikram Mansharamani is a global trend-watcher who shows people how to anticipate the future, manage risk, and spot opportunities. He is the author of THINK FOR YOURSELF: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence and BOOMBUSTOLOGY: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst.He is a frequent commentator on issues driving disruption in the global business environment.Vikram’s ideas and writings have also appeared in Bloomberg, Fortune, Forbes, The New York Times, and many other publications.LinkedIn twice listed him as their #1 Top Voice for Money, Finance and Global Economics and Worth and profiled him as one of the 100 most powerful people in global finance.Millions of readers have enjoyed his unique multi-lens approach to connecting seemingly irrelevant dots.Worst investment everIn 2008, Vikram invested in a small commercial condo in Southern Maine. He had done a lot of analysis on the investment, and his thesis was that this was an increasingly valuable asset.At the time, Vikram was working on his Ph.D. and figured he would rent the space to other students. He was sure demand would be excessive. Unfortunately, things didn’t go as Vikram had planned. Vikram was stuck with an illiquid asset that brought no income. Yet, he was paying condo fees and other recurring expenses. Vikram lost faith in the condo and sold it in 2015 at a 50% loss. What was worse than the loss is that the property is now worth about 5x what he paid. So, Vikram’s thesis was correct. If only he’d believed and stuck with it.Lessons learnedLiquidity is not a constant. Something that you think is liquid may become highly illiquid at certain points in time.You won’t always have the duration for holding you think you do, so have enough flexibility.If the timing of your thesis is off, then you’re wrong.Andrew’s takeawaysThe market can stay irrational longer than you can remain liquid.An asset’s liquidity and your need for liquidity change over time.First, you must have a thesis, then invest in that thesis, and stay in that thesis, and most importantly, the thesis needs to be right for you to be successful.Be careful when investing in illiquid assets, such as property, because you can’t get out of it that easily.Actionable adviceMaintain optionality when you’re younger. You may think you have the greatest investment, and it’s illiquid, but you get stuck in it. And if things go down, you lose the option value of buying something else at a lower price.Vikram’s recommendationsIf you want to get up to speed on Vikram’s current views and the complete archive of all his writings, check out his substack.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsVikram’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to write another book, particularly about the lessons of being a generalist in a land of specialists.Parting words “At the end of the day, the world is filled with specialists, and there could be a lot of value in being a generalist. So look broad, as much as you take the time to look deep.”Vikram Mansharamani [spp-transcript] Connect with Vikram MansharamaniLinkedInTwitterWebsiteBooksSubstackAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Gino Barbaro is the co-founder of Jake & Gino. He is an investor, business owner, author and entrepreneur. As an entrepreneur, he has grown his real estate portfolio to over 2,120 multifamily units & $280,000,000 in assets under management.STORY: Gino invested and lost $172,000 in mobile home parks that he didn’t even know what they looked like or where they were.LEARNING: Know your values before you form a business partnership with anyone. Do due diligence to understand what you’re investing in. “A person with money needs a person with experience. The person with the experience gets the money. The person with the money gets the experience.”Gino Barbaro Guest profileGino Barbaro is the co-founder of Jake & Gino. He is an investor, business owner, author and entrepreneur. As an entrepreneur, he has grown his real estate portfolio to over 2,120 multifamily units & $280,000,000 in assets under management.Gino and his partner, Jake, are teaching others how to do the same through Jake &​ Gino, the premier multifamily real estate education community. Their students have closed over 71,000 units and have $4 Billion in deal volume!Gino is the best-selling author of three books, “Wheelbarrow Profits,” “The Honey Bee,” and “Family, Food and the Friars.” He currently resides in St. Augustine, Florida, with his beautiful wife Julia and their six children.Worst investment everIn 2005, Gino had $172,000 sitting in the bank. His friend and accountant told him of an investment from a gentleman he’d been investing with for years. The gentleman was doing mobile home parks.Though Gino knew nothing about mobile home parks, he was interested in the investment. He met the gentleman, who came driving a gold Maserati. He pitched him this syndicated deal. The parks were in Florida, but Gino never went to see them. He believed the gentleman’s word.The first six months were great, and Gino was getting distribution checks. Six months later, the checks stopped. Gino and his accountant decided to find out what was happening. They searched the parks online, and what they saw was awful. The parks were in the middle of nowhere. No one would want to buy them.Lessons learnedBuy right, manage right, and finance right.Know your values before you form a business partnership with anyone.Do due diligence to understand what you’re investing in. If you don’t know how to do it, hire an attorney or find a company to help you.Learn each process before you invest in it.Learn how to underwrite an asset to see if the numbers make sense.Decide your investment goals and what you are trying to accomplish with each investment because it’s not always about chasing the highest yield. Ask yourself if each investment aligns with your goals,Andrew’s takeawaysNever invest with somebody who approaches you with an investment. Do your own research.Illiquid types of investments require much more due diligence than liquid ones.Actionable adviceGet on the plane and fly down to the property. Take some pictures, then make your decision whether to invest or not.Gino’s recommendationsGino recommends listening to podcasts on his website to listen to interviews of thought leaders, people who think outside the box, and entrepreneurs. The website also has a ton of other valuable resources.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsGino’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to close another 300 real estate deals. He also hopes to continue to scale the education company and bring more students on.Parting words “Continue to listen to this podcast because you’re going to hear a lot more horror stories in the weeks, months, and years to follow. It’s only beginning.”Gino Barbaro [spp-transcript] Connect with Gino BarbaroLinkedInTwitterFacebookInstagramWebsiteBooksPodcastAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever PodcastFurther reading mentionedMorgan Housel, The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and HappinessVicki Robin, Your Money or Your Life: 9 Steps to Transforming Your Relationship with Money and Achieving Financial Independence

BIO: Robin Wigglesworth is the editor of Alphaville, the FT’s financial blog. From Oslo, Norway, he leads a team of writers who dig into anything deeply nerdy or plain delightful that they spot in markets, business, or the global economy.STORY: Robin invested in an ETF in Norway, a consumer durables company, and a fertilizer company after the 2008 financial crisis. These companies did incredibly well. Unfortunately, Robin reacted to short-term headlines when the European crisis started erupting and sold out.LEARNING: You can’t outsmart the markets. Always let your winners ride. “Always let your winners ride.”Robin Wigglesworth Guest profileRobin Wigglesworth is the editor of Alphaville, the FT’s financial blog. From Oslo, Norway, he leads a team of writers who dig into anything deeply nerdy or plain delightful that they spot in markets, business, or the global economy. He is also the author of Trillions, a book on the past, present, and future of passive investing and how it is reshaping financial markets.Worst investment everRobin was a Middle East correspondent for The Financial Times after the financial crisis. The crisis hit later in the Middle East because of the oil price boom. Until the collapse of Lehman, the Gulf was partying. Robin was impressed with how quickly central banks reacted in the last quarter of 2008 after the Lehman collapse.As a journalist, Robin couldn’t invest in any company he covered, even if it was a broad index fund. But because Robin was in the Middle East, there was a lot of this stuff that he didn’t cover.In the Gulf, the dirham was pegged to the dollar, so it was suddenly worth a lot more. Robin didn’t have much money, but he had banked the odd few special payments he’d received for special reports on the FT. He put that money in an ETF in Norway, a consumer durables company called Orkla, and a fertilizer company called Yara.Robin’s choice of investments was brilliant because these companies did incredibly well. Unfortunately, Robin reacted to short-term headlines when the European crisis started erupting and sold out. However, he kept Yara because he figured the world would always need fertilizers to grow food. But Yara got embroiled in a corruption scandal.Had Robin kept that small pot of money running to date, he’d now have a far larger pot of money.Lessons learnedYou can’t outsmart the markets as a whole.If you want to trade, you must find something you know and nobody else has discovered.Always let your winners ride.Andrew’s takeawaysThe average investor in America destroys 30 to 50% of the value that they could have captured in, for example, an index fund simply because of their timing decisions.First, you have to be able to see the opportunity, then have cash and the flexibility to invest in it, and finally, have the guts to actually pull the trigger and do it and let it ride.Robin’s recommendationsRobin recommends reading his book Trillions and registering for free to read Alphaville and learn about passive investing.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsRobin’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to write another book on the history of the bond market.Parting words “Buy my book, buy index funds, and most of all, stay boring. I think keeping it simple is the best thing.”Robin Wigglesworth [spp-transcript] Connect with Robin WigglesworthLinkedInTwitterWebsiteBooksAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Sheryl Garratt is a coach who helps creative professionals do their best work - while also living their best lives. She was a journalist for more than 30 years, the editor of The Face and The Observer magazines, and has published several books, including Adventures In Wonderland, a history of British nightclubs.STORY: Sheryl’s perfectionism, which she wore as a badge of honor, has made her miss out on great opportunities over the last couple of years.LEARNING: Shove your ideas out there and see what happens. In business, you should be iterating often. “Shove your ideas out there and see what happens. If you just sit there reworking the same thing repeatedly, you’ll overwork it and kill the life out of it.”Sheryl Garratt Guest profileSheryl Garratt is a coach who helps creative professionals do their best work - while also living their best lives. She was a journalist for more than 30 years, the editor of The Face and The Observer magazines, and has published several books, including Adventures In Wonderland, a history of British nightclubs.Sheryl has a free 10-day course to help writers, artists, musicians, designers, makers, and creatives of all kinds grow their creative business. Sign up for it at free 10-day course.Worst investment everSheryl’s perfectionism has been her worst investment over the years. She used to wear her perfectionism as a badge of honor and thought that meant something exceptional. But it only cost Sheryl dearly. It stopped her from doing things that might have been fun and wasted a lot of her time over the years.The ideas that Sheryl spent so much time trying to perfect are the ones she never completed. She must have had over 100 book ideas she never wrote because she couldn’t perfect them. At one point, a major publisher offered Sheryl quite a lot of money for a nonfiction book and asked her to pitch them ideas. By the time Sheryl had honed all those ideas, that editor had moved on and wasn’t working at the publishing house anymore. Sheryl has also had prestigious magazines ask her to send ideas so she can work for them. She’d take too long to work on the ideas, and the magazines would change direction.Lessons learnedShove your ideas out there and see what happens.Pitch to people you think are way out of your league and see what happens.Andrew’s takeawaysIn business, you should be iterating often.Actionable adviceDo it quickly and set restraints on whatever you’re trying to do. For example, if you’re trying to write something, give yourself an hour to write it, and then put it out in some reasonably low-risk outlet such as a blog or Medium. Then do it again the next week, the week after that, and the week after that, and you’ll get better. But if you just sit there rewriting the same thing repeatedly, you’ll overwork it and kill the life out of it.Sheryl’s recommendationsSheryl recommends her free 10-day course that outlines how to set up and grow a creative business. The course is relevant for those starting out and also for more established business owners who want a business health check. The course is just 10 emails in 10 days.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsSheryl’s number one goal is to finish her book by the 31st of December this year. Ready or not, she’ll publish the book next March.Parting words “Just do it.”Sheryl Garratt [spp-transcript] Connect with Sheryl GarrattLinkedInInstagramFacebookTwitterWebsiteBooksAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Kim Ades is the Founder of Frame of Mind Coaching™ and Co-Founder of The Journal That Talks Back™. Recognized as a pioneer in leadership coaching and thought mastery, Kim uses her unique philosophy and quirky coaching style to help leaders identify their blind spots and learn to direct their thinking to achieve extraordinary results.STORY: Kim had partnered with a friend and her ex-husband to start a business, but as her marriage unraveled, the partnership became hard. Kim decided to sell the company to her husband but didn't take the time to understand the deal. Three years later, Kim learned that she owed the government $300,000 in taxes from the business she'd sold.LEARNING: When things are very stressful, it's a good idea to slow down instead of speeding up. Don't be forced into a decision without understanding all the elements. "If you don't understand what's going on, don't just quickly make a decision. Slow it down, get your information, and make sure you understand fully what's going on."Kim Ades Guest profileKim Ades is the Founder of Frame of Mind Coaching™ and Co-Founder of The Journal That Talks Back™. Recognized as a pioneer in the field of leadership coaching and thought mastery, Kim uses her unique philosophy and quirky coaching style to help leaders identify their blind spots and learn to direct their thinking to achieve extraordinary results. Author, speaker, entrepreneur, coach, and mom of five, Kim's claim to fame is teaching her powerful coaching process to leaders, executives, and entrepreneurs worldwide.Worst investment everWhen Kim started her first company, Upward Motion, she had two business partners. One was a good friend, and the other was her ex-husband. The company built simulation-based assessments to help people make better hiring decisions.As Kim's marriage was unraveling, maintaining the partnership became harder and harder. She ended up selling her business to her ex-husband. The problem is that Kim didn't know anything about selling businesses. She was pretty young and didn't know about taxes or tax law. Kim was in a state of upheaval and just wanted to get out and have peace in my life. So, Kim made a deal without really understanding it. All she knew was she was getting out of the mess with a lot of money. It was still hard for Kim because she was very attached to the business.About three years later, Kim was contacted by Revenue Canada, notifying her that she hadn't paid her tax bill and owed $300,000. Kim's hastily made decision had led her to this point.Lessons learnedWhen things are very stressful, it's a good idea to slow down instead of speeding up.Don't be forced into a decision without understanding all the elements.If you don't know what's happening, slow it down, get your information, and make sure you know entirely what's happening.Don't be pressured into something that is not the right fit for you.Andrew's takeawaysIf you can sit through the pressure, you will win.Actionable adviceIf you're feeling pressured to make a decision, first ask yourself why, what's the rush, and what's the belief you have that makes you feel like there's an urgency to making this decision. Find out where the pressure is coming from and the facts around it. When does this decision need to be made? Are you prepared to make the decision?Kim's recommendationsKim recommends journaling because it allows you to put your thoughts down and look at them and see if this thinking leads you to where you want to go. Kim believes journaling is beneficial to help guide you toward your destination.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsKim's number one goal for the next 12 months is to create a journal-based coaching course for the coaching community.Parting words "Andrew, thank you for all the work that you do. I hope to meet some of your listeners face-to-face at some point."Kim Ades [spp-transcript] Connect with Kim AdesLinkedInInstagramFacebookTwitterYouTubeWebsitePodcastBookAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsTwitterYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast