ISMS 31: Global CPI saw 2nd MoM uptick in August

Oct 5, 2023

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Will the global CPI slowdown continue? Or will it rebound?

Global Markets

Global CPI saw 2nd monthly uptick in August, DM remains below Global; DM and EM are now on the rise

Economies across the world have a GDP of about US$97trn and an average CPI of 5.1%
DM has US$55trn GDP, and CPI was 4.3%
EM has US$42trn GDP, and CPI was 6.1%

World CPI was 5.1%, down 3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.3ppt, a 2nd monthly uptick

DM CPI was 4.3%, down 3.3 ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.2ppts
It has moved from a 0.5ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 0.8ppt discount
EM CPI was 6.1%, down 2.6 ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.6ppts
It has moved from a 0.7ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1ppt premium

Developed Regions

DM Americas CPI had 2nd uptick, DM Europe continues its slide, while DM Pacific stays flat at 4%

DM Americas is the largest region, with US$28trn of GDP and 3.7% CPI
DM Europe has US$15trn GDP and 5.2% CPI
DM Pacific has US$8trn GDP and 3.9% CPI

DM Americas CPI had 2nd uptick, DM Europe continues its slide, while DM Pacific stays flat at 4%

DM Americas CPI was 3.7%, down 4.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4ppts
It has moved from a 0.1ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.4ppt discount
DM Europe CPI was 5.2%, down 2.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1ppts
It has moved from a 0.1ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 0.1ppt premium
DM Pacific CPI was 3.9%, down 0.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1ppts
It has moved from a 3.9ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.2ppt discount

Emerging Regions

CPI in EM Asia and Frontier markets re-igniting, EM Europe continues its rise

EM Americas had a small GDP of US$4trn and CPI of 5.4%
EM Asia had a massive GDP of US$29trn and 1.4% CPI
EM Europe had a small US$4trn GDP and a massive 16.5% CPI
Emerging Middle East & Africa had a tiny US$2trn GDP and a high 10.9% CPI
Frontier markets had a US$3trn GDP and an extremely high 32.3% CPI

CPI in EM Asia and Frontier markets re-igniting, EM Europe continues its rise

EM Americas CPI was 5.4%, down 3.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.1ppts
It has moved from a 1.3ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 0.3ppt premium
EM Asia CPI was 1.4%, down 2.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.3ppts
It has moved from a 4.5ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 3.6ppt discount
EM Europe CPI was 16.5%, down 11.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 2.1ppts
It has moved from a 20.3ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 11.4ppt premium
EM ME&A CPI was 10.9%, up 3.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flat
It has moved from a 1ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 5.8ppt premium
Frontier CPI was 32.3%, up 6ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 2ppts
It has moved from a 18.3ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 27.2ppt premium

Developed Countries

2nd US CPI uptick; strong 1st uptick in France; Japan and UK steady slide; Germany flat

Top five DM countries
US GDP was US$25trn, CPI of 3.7%
Japan US$5trn and 3.1% CPI
Germany US$4.3trn and 6.2% CPI
UK: US$3.4trn, 6.8%
France: US$3trn/4.6%
USA CPI was 3.7%, down 4.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4ppts
It has moved from a 0.2ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.4ppt discount
Japan CPI was 3.1%, up 0.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1ppts
It has moved from a 5ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 2ppt discount
Germany CPI was 6.2%, down 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flat
It has moved from a 0.9ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.1ppt premium
UK CPI was 6.8%, down 3.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.2ppts
It has moved from a 1.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.7ppt premium
France CPI was 4.6%, down 1.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.5ppts
It has moved from a 2.2ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 0.5ppt discount

Emerging Countries

China CPI flat after July deflation; India slows; strong rise in Korea; rising in Russia and Brazil

China: US$20trn/0.1%
India: US$3.5trn/6.8%
Korea: US$1.8trn/3.5%
Russia: US$1.8trn/5.2%
Brazil: US$1.8trn/4.7%
China CPI was 0.1%, down 2.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4ppts
It has moved from a 5.7ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 5ppt discount
India CPI was 6.8%, down 0.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.6ppts
It has moved from a 1.1ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.7ppt premium
Korea CPI was 3.5%, down 2.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 1.2ppts
It has moved from a 2.4ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.6ppt discount
Russia CPI was 5.2%, down 9.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.9ppts
It has moved from a 6.3ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 0.1ppt premium
Brazil CPI was 4.7%, down 4.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.6ppts
It has moved from a 0.8ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 0.4ppt discount

Developed Countries

Highest CPI

Sweden CPI was 7.6%, down 2.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.8ppts
It has moved from a 1.7ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.5ppt premium
Austria CPI was 7.5%, down 1.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4ppts
It has doubled its 1.2ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.4ppt premium
UK CPI was 6.8%, down 3.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.2ppts
It has moved from a 1.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.7ppt premium
Ireland CPI was 6.4%, down 2.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.5ppts
It has moved from a 0.7ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.3ppt premium
Germany CPI was 6.2%, down 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flat
It has moved from a 0.9ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.1ppt premium

Emerging Countries

Highest CPI

Argentina* CPI was 124.4%, up 45.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 11ppts
It has moved from a 70.4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 119.3ppt premium
Turkey CPI was 60.9%, down 19.6ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 11.3ppts
It has moved from a 72.4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 55.8ppt premium
Egypt CPI was 38.2%, up 23.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 1ppts
It has moved from a 6.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 33.2ppt premium
Pakistan* CPI was 28%, up 0.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.9ppts
It has moved from a 19.1ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 22.9ppt premium
Nigeria* CPI was 26.2%, up 5.6ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 1.7ppts
It has moved from a 12.5ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 21.1ppt premium

*denotes Frontier market

Developed Countries

Lowest CPI

Switzerland CPI was 1.6%, down 1.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1ppts
It has moved from a 4.6ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 3.5ppt discount
Hong Kong CPI was 1.8%, down 0.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1ppts
It has moved from a 6.1ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 3.3ppt discount
Denmark CPI was 2.4%, down 6.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.7ppts
It has moved from a 0.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.6ppt discount
Spain CPI was 2.7%, down 7.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.3ppts
It has moved from a 2.4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.4ppt discount
Netherlands CPI was 3%, down 9.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.5ppts
It has moved from a 4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.1ppt discount

Emerging Countries

Lowest CPI

China CPI was 0.1%, down 2.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4ppts
It has moved from a 5.7ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 5ppt discount
Jordan* CPI was 0.9%, down 4.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flat
It has moved from a 2.6ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 4.2ppt discount
Thailand CPI was 0.9%, down 6.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.5ppts
It has moved from a 0.2ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 4.2ppt discount
Saudi Arabia CPI was 2%, down 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.4ppts
It has moved from a 5.2ppts discount to World CPI last year to the current 3.1ppt discount
Malaysia CPI was 2.1%, down 2.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flat
It has moved from a 3.4ppt discount to World CPI last year to the current 3ppt discount

*denotes Frontier market

Developed Countries

Largest rise/Least fall

Japan CPI was 3.1%, up 0.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1ppts
It has moved from a 5ppt discount to World CPI last year to the current 2ppt discount
Hong Kong CPI was 1.8%, down 0.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.1ppts
It has moved from a 6.1ppt discount to World CPI last year to the current 3.3ppt discount
Israel CPI was 4.2%, down 0.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.8ppts
It has moved from a 3.5ppt discount to World CPI last year to the current 0.9ppt discount
Australia CPI was 6.1%, down 0.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flat
It has moved from a 1.1ppt discount to World CPI last year to the current 1ppt premium
Germany CPI was 6.2%, down 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flat
It has moved from a 0.9ppt discount to World CPI last year to the current 1.1ppt premium

Emerging Countries

Largest rise/Least fall

Argentina* CPI was 124.4%, up 45.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 11ppts
It has moved from a 70.4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 119.3ppt premium
Egypt CPI was 38.2%, up 23.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 1ppts
It has moved from a 6.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 33.2ppt premium
Nigeria* CPI was 26.2%, up 5.6ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 1.7ppts
It has moved from a 12.5ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 21.1ppt premium
Hungary CPI was 16.6%, up 1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.3ppts
It has moved from a 7.5ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 11.5ppt premium
Pakistan* CPI was 28%, up 0.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.9ppts
It has moved from a 19.1ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 22.9ppt premium

*denotes Frontier market

Developed Countries

Smallest rise/Biggest fall

Netherlands CPI was 3%, down 9.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.5ppts
It has moved from a 4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.1ppt discount
Spain CPI was 2.7%, down 7.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.3ppts
It has moved from a 2.4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.4ppt discount
Denmark CPI was 2.4%, down 6.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.7ppts
It has moved from a 0.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.6ppt discount
Belgium CPI was 4.1%, down 5.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was flat
It has moved from a 1.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1ppt discount
Portugal CPI was 3.8%, down 5.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.6ppts
It has moved from a 0.9ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.3ppt discount

Emerging Countries

Smallest rise/Biggest fall

Sri Lanka* CPI was 4%, down 57.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 2.3ppts
It has moved from a 53.8ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.1ppt discount
Estonia* CPI was 4.8%, down 19.8ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.8ppts
It has moved from a 16.6ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 0.3ppt discount
Turkey CPI was 60.9%, down 19.6ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 11.3ppts
It has moved from a 72.4ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 55.8ppt premium
Lithuania* CPI was 6.3%, down 16ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.3ppts
It has moved from a 14.2ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 1.2ppt premium
Bulgaria* CPI was 7.8%, down 9.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.8ppts
It has moved from a 9.6ppts premium to World CPI last year to the current 2.7ppt premium

*denotes Frontier market

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ISMS 31: Global CPI saw 2nd MoM uptick in August

Will the global CPI slowdown continue? Or will it rebound?

Global Markets

Global CPI saw 2nd monthly uptick in August, DM remains below Global; DM and EM are now on the rise

World CPI was 5.1%, down 3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.3ppt, a 2nd monthly uptick

Developed Regions

DM Americas CPI had 2nd uptick, DM Europe continues its slide, while DM Pacific stays flat at 4%

DM Americas CPI had 2nd uptick, DM Europe continues its slide, while DM Pacific stays flat at 4%

Emerging Regions

CPI in EM Asia and Frontier markets re-igniting, EM Europe continues its rise

CPI in EM Asia and Frontier markets re-igniting, EM Europe continues its rise

Developed Countries

2nd US CPI uptick; strong 1st uptick in France; Japan and UK steady slide; Germany flat

Emerging Countries

China CPI flat after July deflation; India slows; strong rise in Korea; rising in Russia and Brazil

Developed Countries

Highest CPI

Emerging Countries

Highest CPI

Developed Countries

Lowest CPI

Emerging Countries

Lowest CPI

Developed Countries

Emerging Countries

Developed Countries

Emerging Countries

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