My Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Jeff Sarti, CEO of Morton Wealth, leads a firm managing over $3 billion in assets. With a mission to empower better investors, Jeff helps clients achieve their financial goals while supporting employees in their career growth.STORY: Jeff bought a few dot-com companies, thinking it was smart and safe because he bought the big brands. All of the companies dropped 90%+.LEARNING: Don’t let greed, FOMO, and a lack of imagination drive you to a bad investment. “Don’t take shortcuts. If you do, at least know that you’re gambling and speculating. That’s different from investing.”Jeff Sarti Guest profileJeff Sarti, CEO of Morton Wealth, leads a firm managing over $3 billion in assets. With a mission to empower better investors, Jeff helps clients achieve their financial goals while supporting employees in their career growth. A CFA charterholder, Jeff shares his insights through his Perspective newsletter. His expertise emphasizes challenging the status quo and fostering long-term, resilient investment strategies.Worst investment everIn the late 90s, during the dot-com boom, Jeff had just started making a bit of money. He bought a few dot-com companies, thinking it was smart and safe because he bought the big brands. All of the companies dropped 90%+ after a while.Lessons learnedDon’t let greed, FOMO, and a lack of imagination drive you to a bad investment.Always do your research.Andrew’s takeawaysWhen prices get untethered from earnings growth, our expectation of the future is what matters.Actionable adviceThe only way you can learn is by doing and making mistakes. But before you start doing, do the research, understand the underlying risk factors of your investments, and don’t take shortcuts.If you do, at least know you’re speculating and not investing. Keep that speculative piece of your portfolio small. It’s always a good idea to balance speculative investments with more traditional, long-term investment strategies for a more secure financial future.Jeff’s recommendationsJeff recommends checking out resources on his website, such as his investment guides and market analysis, and signing up for his quarterly newsletter if you want financial education.He also recommends reading Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman and books by Morgan Housel to understand how emotions drive investment decisions.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsJeff’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to continue traveling the country with his investment team, uncovering some new niche opportunities.Parting words “I really enjoyed the conversation. It was a lot of fun.”Jeff Sarti [spp-transcript] Connect with Jeff SartiLinkedInBlogAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsXYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 33: An Investor’s Worst Enemy.LEARNING: You are your own worst enemy when it comes to investing. “The right strategy is to avoid the loser’s game. Don’t try to pick individual stocks or time the market, just invest in a disciplined way, and you will win by getting the market’s return.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 33: An Investor’s Worst Enemy.Chapter 33: An Investor’s Worst EnemyIn this chapter, Larry demonstrates why investors are their own worst enemies. He observes that many people think the key to investing is identifying the stocks that will outperform the market and avoiding the ones that will underperform.Yet the vast body of evidence says that’s playing the losers’ game. He adds that most professionals with advanced degrees in finance and mathematics, with access to the best databases and huge advantages over individuals, often think they’re smart enough to beat the market.They do so by attempting to uncover individual securities they believe the rest of the market has somehow mispriced (the price is too high or too low). They also try to time their investment decisions to buy when the market is “undervalued” and sell when it is “overvalued.”However, evidence shows that 98% of them fail to outperform in any statistically significant way on a risk-adjusted basis, even before taxes. As historian and author Peter Bernstein puts it: “The essence of investment theory is that being smart is not a sufficient condition for being rich.”Why do people keep playing the loser’s game?In the face of such overwhelming evidence, the puzzling question is why people keep trying to play a game they are likely to lose. From Larry’s perspective, there are four explanations:Because our education system has failed investors and Wall Street, and most financial media want to conceal the evidence, people are unaware of it.While the evidence suggests that playing the game of active management is the triumph of hope over wisdom and experience, hope does spring eternal—after all, a small minority succeed.Active management is exciting, while passive management is boring.Investors are overconfident—a normal human condition, not limited to investing. While each investor might admit that it’s hard to beat the market, each believes he will be one of the few who succeed.So, what is the right strategy?In light of the evidence presented, Larry’s advice is clear: avoid the losers’ game. Instead of trying to pick individual stocks or time the market, he advocates for a disciplined approach to investing. Investors can win by staying the course through bear markets by simply getting the market’s returns. This, he argues, is the right strategy for successful investing.Suppose you choose to play the game of active investing. In that case, Larry warns, the only ones likely to benefit are your financial advisor, broker-dealer, the manager of the actively managed fund, and the publisher of the newsletter or ratings service you subscribe to. The odds are overwhelmingly against individual investors in this game, making it a futile endeavor.Further readingJonathan Fuerbringer, “Investing It,” New York Times, March 30, 1997.Robert McGough, “The Secret (Active) Dreams of an Indexer,” Wall Street Journal, February 25, 1997.Peter Bernstein, The Portable MBA in Investment (Wiley, 1995).Jonathan Clements, 25 Myths You’ve Got to Avoid (Simon & Schuster, 1998).James H. Smalhout, “Too Close to Your Money?” Bloomberg Personal (November 1997).Gary Belsky and Thomas Gilovich, Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes (Simon & Schuster, 1999).Peter L. Bernstein and Aswath Damodaran (editors), Investment Management (Wiley, 1998).Ron Ross, The Unbeatable Market (Optimum Press, 2002).Did you miss out on the previous chapters? Check them out:Part I: How Markets Work: How Security Prices are Determined and Why It’s So Difficult to OutperformEnrich Your Future 01: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and BondsEnrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set PricesEnrich Your Future 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment ManagersEnrich Your Future 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find?Enrich Your Future 05: Great Companies Do Not Make High-Return InvestmentsEnrich Your Future 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete RoseEnrich Your Future 07: The Value of Security AnalysisEnrich Your Future 08: High Economic Growth Doesn’t Always Mean High Stock Market ReturnEnrich Your Future 09: The Fed Model and the Money IllusionPart II: Strategic Portfolio DecisionsEnrich Your Future 10: You Won’t Beat the Market Even the Best Funds Don’tEnrich Your Future 11: Long-Term Outperformance Is Not Always Evidence of SkillEnrich Your Future 12: When Confronted With a Loser’s Game Do Not PlayEnrich Your Future 13: Past Performance Is Not a Predictor of Future PerformanceEnrich Your Future 14: Stocks Are Risky No Matter How Long the HorizonEnrich Your Future 15: Individual Stocks Are Riskier Than You BelieveEnrich Your Future 16: The Estimated Return Is Not InevitableEnrich Your Future 17: Take a Portfolio Approach to Your InvestmentsEnrich Your Future 18: Build a Portfolio That Can Withstand the Black SwansEnrich Your Future 19: The Gold Illusion: Why Investing in Gold May Not Be SafeEnrich Your Future 20: Passive Investing Is the Key to Prudent Wealth ManagementPart III: Behavioral Finance: We Have Met the Enemy and He Is UsEnrich Your Future 21: Think You Can Beat the Market? Think AgainEnrich Your Future 22: Some Risks Are Not Worth TakingEnrich Your Future 23: Seeing Through the Frame: Making Better Investment DecisionsEnrich Your Future 24: Why Smart People Do Dumb ThingsEnrich Your Future 25: Stock Crashes Happen—Be PreparedEnrich Your Future 26: Should You Invest Now or Spread It Out?Enrich Your Future 27: Pascal’s Wager: Betting on Consequences Over ProbabilitiesEnrich Your Future 28 & 29: How to Outsmart Your Investing BiasesEnrich Your Future 30: The Hidden Cost of Chasing Dividend StocksEnrich Your Future 31: Risk vs. Uncertainty: The Investor’s Blind SpotPart IV: Playing the Winner’s Game in Life and InvestingEnrich Your Future 32: Trying to Beat the Market Is a Fool’s ErrandAbout Larry SwedroeLarry Swedroe was head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match.Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has authored or co-authored 18 books.Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets.Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect, Advisor Perspectives, and Wealth Management. [spp-transcript] Connect with Larry SwedroeLinkedInXWebsiteBooksAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsXYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

A retailer in Bangkok was staring down a cash crunch after COVID. He was ready to sign for a loan, convinced it was his only option.Instead, we dug into his numbers and found $30,000 in unsold inventory gathering dust and $8,000 in overpayments to suppliers. That cash was enough to stabilize his business; no debt was needed. The money was there; he just couldn’t see it.Download The Profit Gap for free at TheProfitBootCamp.com to see 5 hidden reasons family businesses work hard but still fall short of profit.Find hidden profit before you borrowWhen cash flow gets tight, panic sets in. Your mind races, layoffs, loans, maybe even shutting down. But fear isn’t a strategy. The truth is, your business is probably sitting on hidden profit, even in tough times. You just need to find it.Start with a zero-based budget. That means you begin each budget line at zero, not last year’s number, and build it up based on what’s actually needed. Each team member justifies every expense from scratch. No assumptions. No carryovers. Just what drives results. Look at your expenses, inventory, and contracts. What’s wasting money?Maybe it’s unused subscriptions, overstocked supplies, or a vendor charging too much. One client found $500 a month in duplicate software licenses. Canceling them took one email and saved $6,000 a year.Cut smart, not deepDon’t just cut costs mindlessly; focus on waste, not muscle. Keep what drives value, like your best staff or marketing, that works. I’ve seen owners slash their top salespeople in a panic, only to tank revenue. Instead, realign spending to what moves profit.For example, shift the budget from low-margin products to high-margin ones. One business I worked with dropped a product line that was barely breaking even. That freed up $20,000 for ads, bringing in $100,000 in new sales.Small wins create momentum. Even saving $1,000 can shift your mindset from panic to possibility. Try this: call your top five vendors this week. Ask for a 10% discount or better payment terms. Most will say no, but some will say yes to keep your business.A client of mine negotiated $5,000 off his annual shipping costs in one 15-minute call. That’s cash you can use to grow, not just survive.Discipline is your secret weaponDiscipline beats loans every time. Borrowing might feel like a lifeline, but it’s a weight around your neck if you don’t fix the root problems. A logistics firm I worked with was desperate for a loan. Instead, we audited their spending and found $8,600 in waste, unused equipment leases, and overpaid utilities. That cash funded a marketing push that brought in new clients without debt. They weren’t out of options; they just needed clarity.Here’s one last story. That same logistics firm thought they were done. But that $8,600 audit changed everything. They used the savings to relaunch ads, landing three new contracts monthly. The owner told me, “I thought we were stuck. Turns out, we just needed to look closer.” What’s hiding in your business?You’ve now faced the five hard truths holding your business back. You know no one’s coming to save you, that delay kills profit, that family dynamics can trap you, that leadership drives results, and that you have options even in a cash crunch. Now, it’s time to act. Pick one step this week, cut an expense, fix a meeting, check your P&L, and do it. Your business depends on you.Actions from prior episodesCut one cost: Block 30 minutes, review P&L, and cut one expense. Just one. Lead by example.Find one drain: Review finances weekly, searching for one hidden loss. Act now.Align the family: Hold a monthly, one-hour family meeting. Ask: “What will drive next month’s profit?” Prioritize profit over family tension.Lead the team: Run focused weekly meetings with a clear agenda and one action item. Drive results.The next actionZero-based budgeting: Justify all expenses to free cash for growth.Download The Profit Gap for free at TheProfitBootCamp.com to see 5 hidden reasons family businesses work hard but still fall short of profit. Andrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsXYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Oeystein Kalleklev is the outgoing CEO of Flex LNG and Avance Gas. He has prior experience as CFO of Knutsen NYK Offshore Tankers and Umoe Group and Chairman General Partner of MLP KNOT Offshore Partners.STORY: Oeystein has been part of some terrible investments made by his employers. One invested $150 million to become the biggest shareholder of a mine in Guinea, which was lost due to a bad regime. During the great financial crisis, another invested $300 million into a bioethanol plant in Brazil.LEARNING: In a dynamic industry like shipping, you must think more about adapting and being tactical rather than strategic. “You have to be really disciplined when you are in a cyclical industry. Observe where the market is going, and learn how to adapt.”Oeystein Kalleklev Guest profileOeystein Kalleklev is the outgoing CEO of Flex LNG (NYSE/OSE: FLNG) and Avance Gas (OSE: AGAS). He has prior experience as CFO of Knutsen NYK Offshore Tankers and Umoe Group, as well as Chairman General Partner of MLP KNOT Offshore Partners (NYSE: KNOP).Worst investment everOeystein has been part of some terrible investments. In one case, a family Oeystein worked for had invested about $150 million to become the biggest shareholder of a mine in Guinea. The country was under an unstable regime, and the leader was assassinated. There were also so many operational hiccups operationally. That $150 million turned out to be like $3 million when they sold their last share.He has also been involved in bioethanol production in Brazil, where a company he worked for invested about $300 million into a bioethanol plant in Brazil during the great financial crisis. The bosses had to restructure the whole company, and Oeystein had to go to the US to talk to bondholders, trying to get them to choose whether to become shareholders or take a big hit on the bond loans.In another case, Oeystein was involved in a nickel mine in the Philippines where the company he was working for was building a floating production ship for oil. The budget was $280 million, but the company spent $500 million on that building project, and it also took one and a half extra years to complete.Lessons learnedWhen you have such a dynamic industry as shipping, you must think more about adapting and being tactical rather than strategic.Focus on running your ships efficiently—it’s a critical success factor.Shipping is a lot about market timing. Read the market, know where it is going, when you should exit, and when you should invest.You have to be knowledgeable about technology because technology changes quite often in shipping.Be smart about running a shipping company. Do it lean and follow the technology.Andrew’s takeawaysIt’s hard to set a long-term strategy in an industry such as shipping because you’ve got to adapt to what’s happening in the market.You have to run ships efficiently, or else you will miss the core aspect of your business.Actionable adviceIf you want to venture into the shipping industry, you must properly understand shipping because it’s not as straightforward as people think. It’s not just about moving goods from A to B.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsOeystein’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to read more books to be on top of contemporary issues and be a successful shipping investor.Parting words “Thank you for inviting me. I will be listening to a few more episodes.”Oeystein Kalleklev [spp-transcript] Connect with Oeystein KalleklevLinkedInXAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsXYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

I once sat down with a furious business owner. “My team’s useless,” he said. “They never deliver.” I asked him two simple questions: “Who hired them? Who sets their goals?”He went quiet. He admitted he hadn’t run a proper meeting in months, and his priorities changed weekly. His team wasn’t failing; they were confused.Once he got clear and consistent, everything shifted. Execution improved, morale spiked, and profit followed. The problem wasn’t his team; it was his leadership.Download The Profit Gap for free at TheProfitBootCamp.com to see 5 hidden reasons family businesses work hard but still fall short of profit.It starts with youWhen the same issues keep popping up: missed deadlines, low margins, and sloppy execution, it’s easy to blame your team or the market. But nine times out of ten, those problems point to your systems, not your people. If your business feels stuck in a loop, you haven’t built the structure to break free. Leadership isn’t about charisma or barking orders. It’s about clarity and follow-through.Start by auditing yourself. Are your priorities clear to your team? Do you track progress, or just hope things get done?I’ve seen owners delegate tasks and then forget about them, leaving their teams guessing. That’s not leadership. That’s abdication. One client delegated a pricing review but never checked in. Six months later, nothing had changed, and they’d lost $50,000 in potential profit. Set clear goals, assign owners, and follow up. It’s not sexy, but it works.Fix your meetings, fix your profitHere’s a game-changer: fix your meetings. Most business meetings are a mess, with endless venting or no focus. Better meetings lead to better profit. Try this: run one weekly meeting with a tight agenda. Pick one metric, like cash flow, gross margin, or overdue invoices, and identify three actions to move them.One client’s meetings were just complaint sessions. We set a new rule: every meeting ends with three clear next steps. Four weeks later, the execution was sharper, and he told me, “We didn’t need more staff, just a real plan.” Focused action works.Build momentum with better habitsYou don’t need a new team, just better habits. Your people are probably capable, but they need direction. A weekly rhythm, like Monday priorities, Wednesday short check-ins, and Friday results, builds momentum fast. It’s not about working harder; it’s about working smarter. And start writing down what works. That’s your playbook for scaling.One owner I know documented his best sales process. It took an hour, but it cut training time for new hires and boosted close rates by 10%. That’s leadership in action.You’re leading with clarity now, but what if cash is still tight? In our final episode, we’ll tackle how to turn things around when money’s low and pressure’s high. Don’t miss it.Actions from prior episodesCut one cost: Block 30 minutes, review P&L, and cut one expense. Just one. Lead by example.Find one drain: Review finances weekly, searching for one hidden loss. Act now.Align the family: Hold a monthly, one-hour family meeting. Ask: “What will drive next month’s profit?” Prioritize profit over family tension.The next actionLead the team: Run focused weekly meetings with a clear agenda and one action item. Drive results.Download The Profit Gap for free at TheProfitBootCamp.com to see 5 hidden reasons family businesses work hard but still fall short of profit. Andrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsXYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 32: The Twenty-Dollar Bill.LEARNING: Trade as if the markets are efficient, even though they are not. “If the markets were perfectly efficient, then no one would discover anything about a mispriced stock. There would be no abnormal behaviors or biases, such as investors preferring to buy lottery stocks; therefore, there would be no incentive for investors to conduct any research. This would make the market inefficient.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 32: The Twenty-Dollar Bill.Chapter 32: The Uncertainty of InvestingIn this chapter, Larry explains the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) and why successful trading strategies often self-destruct due to their inherent limitations.According to Larry, one of the fundamental tenets of the EMH is that in a competitive financial environment, successful trading strategies self-destruct because they are self-limiting—when they are discovered, they are eliminated by exploiting the strategy.He shares the example of Andrew Lo’s adaptive markets hypothesis, which acknowledges that while the EMH may not necessarily hold in the short term, it does predict that inefficiencies will self-correct over time as arbitrageurs exploit them after publication. This understanding leads us to the inevitable conclusion that financial markets trend toward efficiency in the long run.Efficient markets rapidly eliminate opportunities for abnormal profitsTo demonstrate how the efficiency of markets rapidly eliminates opportunities for abnormal profits, Larry shares the following example:Imagine that an investor discovers that small-cap stocks have historically outperformed the market in January. To take advantage of this anomaly, that investor would have to buy small-cap stocks at the end of December, before the period of outperformance. After achieving some success with this strategy, other investors would take note—with the large dollars at stake, Wall Street is quick to copy successful strategies. An academic paper might even be published. Since the effect is now known to more than just the original discoverer of the anomaly, one would have to buy before others do to generate abnormal profits. Now, prices start to rise in November. But the next group of investors, recognizing this was going to happen, would have to buy even earlier.As you can see, the very act of exploiting an anomaly has the effect of making it disappear, making the market more efficient. This underscores the significant role investors play in shaping market efficiency.Behave as if equity markets are perfectly efficientLarry surmises that while equity markets may not be perfectly efficient, the winning investment strategy is to behave as if they were. This reaffirms the importance of the EMH in guiding investment strategy, providing investors with a sound approach to market participation.In conclusion, Larry advises investors to consider carefully these words from Richard Roll, financial economist and principal of the portfolio management firm Roll and Ross Asset Management: “I have personally tried to invest money, my clients’ and my own, in every single anomaly and predictive result that academics have dreamed up. And I have yet to make a nickel on any of these supposed market inefficiencies. An inefficiency ought to be an exploitable opportunity. If there is nothing investors can systematically exploit, time and time again, then it’s tough to say that information is not being properly incorporated into stock prices. Real money investment strategies don’t produce the results that academic papers say they should.” Further readingAndrew Lo, “The Adoptive Markets Hypothesis,” The Journal of Portfolio Management (30th Anniversary Edition, 2004).Dwight Lee and James Verbrugge, “The Efficient Market Theory Thrives on Criticism,” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance (Spring 1996).Burton G. Malkiel, “Are Markets Efficient? Yes, Even If They Make Errors,” Wall Street Journal, December 28, 2000.Did you miss out on the previous chapters? Check them out:Part I: How Markets Work: How Security Prices are Determined and Why It’s So Difficult to OutperformEnrich Your Future 01: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and BondsEnrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set PricesEnrich Your Future 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment ManagersEnrich Your Future 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find?Enrich Your Future 05: Great Companies Do Not Make High-Return InvestmentsEnrich Your Future 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete RoseEnrich Your Future 07: The Value of Security AnalysisEnrich Your Future 08: High Economic Growth Doesn’t Always Mean High Stock Market ReturnEnrich Your Future 09: The Fed Model and the Money IllusionPart II: Strategic Portfolio DecisionsEnrich Your Future 10: You Won’t Beat the Market Even the Best Funds Don’tEnrich Your Future 11: Long-Term Outperformance Is Not Always Evidence of SkillEnrich Your Future 12: When Confronted With a Loser’s Game Do Not PlayEnrich Your Future 13: Past Performance Is Not a Predictor of Future PerformanceEnrich Your Future 14: Stocks Are Risky No Matter How Long the HorizonEnrich Your Future 15: Individual Stocks Are Riskier Than You BelieveEnrich Your Future 16: The Estimated Return Is Not InevitableEnrich Your Future 17: Take a Portfolio Approach to Your InvestmentsEnrich Your Future 18: Build a Portfolio That Can Withstand the Black SwansEnrich Your Future 19: The Gold Illusion: Why Investing in Gold May Not Be SafeEnrich Your Future 20: Passive Investing Is the Key to Prudent Wealth ManagementPart III: Behavioral Finance: We Have Met the Enemy and He Is UsEnrich Your Future 21: Think You Can Beat the Market? Think AgainEnrich Your Future 22: Some Risks Are Not Worth TakingEnrich Your Future 23: Seeing Through the Frame: Making Better Investment DecisionsEnrich Your Future 24: Why Smart People Do Dumb ThingsEnrich Your Future 25: Stock Crashes Happen—Be PreparedEnrich Your Future 26: Should You Invest Now or Spread It Out?Enrich Your Future 27: Pascal’s Wager: Betting on Consequences Over ProbabilitiesEnrich Your Future 28 & 29: How to Outsmart Your Investing BiasesEnrich Your Future 30: The Hidden Cost of Chasing Dividend StocksEnrich Your Future 31: Risk vs. Uncertainty: The Investor’s Blind SpotAbout Larry SwedroeLarry Swedroe was head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match.Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has authored or co-authored 18 books.Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets.Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect, Advisor Perspectives, and Wealth Management. [spp-transcript] Connect with Larry SwedroeLinkedInXWebsiteBooksAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsXYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

I once worked with a family business run by two brothers and a sister. The sister was a dreamer, pushing niche markets and creative ideas. Her CEO brother was all about landing big accounts to keep cash flowing. Every strategy meeting turned into a shouting match. Nothing got decided, and the business was stuck.I pulled the creative sister aside and asked, “Do you want to be CEO?” She laughed, “No way.” That honesty was a game-changer. They finally aligned behind one leader, and the chaos started to fade. Is your family business stuck because no one’s steering the ship?Download The Profit Gap for free at TheProfitBootCamp.com to see 5 hidden reasons family businesses work hard but still fall short of profit.Survival mode kills profitFamily businesses are special, but they come with unique traps. The daily grind, orders, payroll, and customer complaints can bury any chance of big-picture thinking. You’re so busy keeping the lights on that you forget to ask: where’s this business going? That’s survival mode, and it’s a profit killer. Strategy takes a backseat when you’re just trying to get through the week.Clear roles fix family chaosThen there’s the family dynamic. Loyalty and emotions can cloud tough calls. Maybe your cousin’s great at sales but terrible at managing people, yet no one says anything because he’s family. Or your parents are still on the payroll, even though they retired years ago. These are human issues, but they hurt your bottom line.The fix? Write down everyone’s roles, even if it’s awkward. Be clear: who’s in charge of what? I’ve seen families transform their businesses just by putting this on paper. It’s not about cutting people out but giving everyone a lane so the company can move forward. Always return to the core principle that increasing profit increases value for all family members.If every week feels like a scramble, you’re missing structure. Without a precise rhythm, you’re starting from zero every Monday. That’s exhausting, and it keeps you stuck. Try this: start one monthly owner profit check-in, 60 minutes max.Focus on one question: what’s driving profit next month? It could be following up on late invoices, cutting a small cost, or pushing a high-margin product. Get your team thinking about profit, not just staying busy. Structure turns chaos into progress.Family businesses also risk getting too comfortable. You might have a warm and loyal culture, but is it driving growth? Or is it just keeping the peace? Ask yourself: does our setup push us toward profit, or are we coasting on familiarity?One family business I know kept a low-margin product line because it was “part of our history.” Dropping it felt like betraying the past, but it freed up cash for marketing that doubled their revenue. Logic has to win.Structure over stressHere’s a quick story. I had a client who groaned, “Mondays are a mess.” Projects stalled, and he was micromanaging everything. We set a simple rhythm: Monday to set goals, Wednesday for updates, Friday to review wins. In just a few weeks, his team started owning their tasks. He wasn’t carrying the whole business anymore; he had breathing room. Structure doesn’t sound sexy, but it’s a game-changer.Now you see the real traps keeping your family business stuck. But what if the real problem isn’t your family, it’s you? In our next episode, we’ll face the hard truth about leadership and profit. Don’t miss it.Actions from prior episodesCut one cost: Block 30 minutes, review P&L, and cut one expense. Just one. Lead by example.Find one drain: Review finances weekly, searching for one hidden loss. Act now.The next actionAlign the family: Hold a monthly, one-hour family meeting. Ask: “What will drive next month’s profit?” Prioritize profit over family tension.Download The Profit Gap for free at TheProfitBootCamp.com to see 5 hidden reasons family businesses work hard but still fall short of profit. Andrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsXYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

BIO: Jeff Holman, founder of Intellectual Strategies, is revolutionizing legal support for startups and scaling businesses. His Fractional Legal Team model provides expert legal guidance without the cost of a full-time team.STORY: Jeff started a cold plunge and sauna business during the pandemic. The company looked great, but he had employee issues, which affected its success. Soon, tens of other studios, brands, and franchises were all popping up within a mile of Jeff’s studio.LEARNING: Create strategic alignment incrementally and iteratively. “Create strategic alignment incrementally and iteratively because the business that you’re operating today might not be the business that you pivot to tomorrow.”Jeff Holman Guest profileJeff Holman, founder of Intellectual Strategies, is revolutionizing legal support for startups and scaling businesses. His Fractional Legal Team model provides expert legal guidance without the cost of a full-time team. With expertise in engineering, law, and business, Jeff helps companies navigate complex challenges, enabling them to grow with confidence.Worst investment everDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, Jeff decided to find ways to spend his time and invest some of his money. He settled on a cold plunge and sauna business. The spreadsheet looked great, and the numbers were fantastic. The business model followed another business that Jeff had previously done, which had achieved considerable success.Jeff found a local company in Utah that was manufacturing cold plunges at the time and secured a couple of investor friends to invest in the business. He rented an office space and converted one of the suites into a cold plunge and sauna studio.The biggest mistake that cost Jeff this business was hiring employees and trying to get them more involved in marketing. He would help train and incentivize employees, ensure tasks were completed, have people submit reports, follow up for accountability, and more. It felt like he was babysitting his employees. This eventually brought his business down. However, the final nail in the coffin was a proliferation of other studios, brands, and franchises, all popping up within a mile of Jeff’s studio.Lessons learnedIf you’re part of a franchise, consider visiting other franchise businesses that may not be competing with yours or those a little further away from your customer base to observe how they operate.If you’re pivoting your business, create strategic alignment incrementally and iteratively because the business you’re operating today might not be the one you pivot to tomorrow.Andrew’s takeawaysFind a business that does what you want to do in another state and go work with them for a while.Actionable adviceValidate the business idea you want to invest in well beyond the spreadsheet. Research regulations, test your MVP, identify channels that you’ll use to drive revenue, and much more.Jeff’s recommended resourcesJeff’s journey has taught him the value of seeking expert advice. He recommends holding a strategy call with him if you need legal expertise to scale your business confidently. He also suggests reading Rocket Fuel and Traction: Get a Grip on Your Business by Gino Wickman to learn how to align intellectual property, assets, patents, trademarks, and copyrights with your business objectives and strategy. This advice can provide reassurance and confidence as you navigate the complexities of business.No.1 goal for the next 12 monthsJeff’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to expand his law firm and also evangelize the fractional legal team model.Parting words “Innovate with confidence.”Jeff Holman [spp-transcript] Connect with Jeff HolmanLinkedInFacebookInstagramYoutubeWebsiteAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsXYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

I met a family business owner in the Philippines who was proud of his “stable” company. Two percent net profit, year after year. Sounds okay, right? Until I showed him the math: because his margin was deeply below average, he’d missed out on $1.2 million in potential profit over three years.That “stability” was a slow bleed, draining his business while he didn’t even notice. Are you losing money you can’t see? That’s what this episode is all about: how profit problems silently grow while you’re looking the other way.Download The Profit Gap for free at TheProfitBootCamp.com to see 5 hidden reasons family businesses work hard but still fall short of profit.Small leaks, big lossesProfit problems don’t usually hit you like a freight train. They creep in quietly; a slight inefficiency here, a missed opportunity there. Maybe it’s a subscription you forgot to cancel or pricing that hasn’t budged in years. These leaks add up, and the longer you wait, the harder they are to fix. Think of it like a leaky pipe: today’s drip becomes a flood tomorrow.The longer you delay, the more risk and complexity you’re piling on. Your margins shrink, your stress grows, and suddenly, you’re vulnerable to a bad month or a competitor’s move. I experienced this in my own business leading up to the government COVID lockdowns.The good news? You don’t need a massive overhaul to start. Just find one recurring cost that’s dragging you down. It could be an overpriced vendor, software you barely use, or a process that wastes your team’s time.One client I worked with found $1,500 monthly in unused cloud storage. Cutting it took 10 minutes and saved him $18,000 a year. That’s the kind of win you can grab right now. Small tweaks today prevent painful losses tomorrow.Don’t overthink, just reviewHere’s a simple way to start: schedule a 30-minute profit review this month. Pull your profit and loss statement and look for one leak. Don’t overcomplicate it. Just ask: where’s money slipping away?If you don’t know your P&L, ask your accountant to walk you through it. You may need a new accountant if your accountant can’t do that. This isn’t about being a finance wizard but knowing your business. One owner I know avoided his financials for years, trusting his bookkeeper. When we finally looked, we found $40,000 lost to outdated pricing. A 30-minute review fixed it. That’s the power of paying attention.Don’t wait until you’re desperate. I’ve seen too many owners hold off until they’re scraping by, thinking they’ll fix profit when things “calm down.” Spoiler: things don’t calm down. The time to act is now when you still have options. If you wait until you’re broke, your choices shrink fast. You might have to cut staff, take a loan, or close up shop. Acting early keeps you in control.Here’s a question to spark clarity: if a third party bought your business today, what’s the first thing they would fix?Maybe it’s a product line barely breaking even or a client who pays late but demands your time. Write down one fix and tackle it this week. That mindset, seeing your business with fresh eyes, uncovers profit you didn’t know you had. Don’t wait for the third party to arrive. Fix your business now.See your business with fresh eyesLet’s pause for a story. I worked with a client who never tracked profit by product. His team was convinced their manufactured products were the cash cow, way better than their imported products. We dug into the numbers, and guess what?The imported products they sold were nearly twice as profitable. He immediately shifted strategy, focused on imports, raised prices on the manufactured stuff, and boosted gross profit by 17% in three months. That money was sitting there, waiting to be found. What’s hiding in your business?You now see how delay kills profit, but why is breaking free from survival mode so hard? In our next episode, we’ll dig into why family businesses stay stuck and how to finally escape. Don’t miss it.Action from the prior episodeCut one cost: Block 30 minutes, review P&L, and cut one expense. Just one. Lead by example.The next actionFind one drain: Review finances weekly, searching for one hidden loss. Act now.Download The Profit Gap for free at TheProfitBootCamp.com to see 5 hidden reasons family businesses work hard but still fall short of profit. Andrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsXYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 31: The Uncertainty of Investing.LEARNING: Equity investing is always about uncertainty. “Most investors think of investing as much more like risk and forget there’s a lot of uncertainty. That’s a problem because investing is always about uncertainty. You have to recognize that we cannot rely on historical data to tell us that much about the future.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry’s new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry’s Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 31: The Uncertainty of Investing.Chapter 31: The Uncertainty of InvestingIn this chapter, Larry explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. He highlights that one of the most important concepts to grasp is that investing is about dealing with both risk and uncertainty.University of Chicago professor Frank Knight defined risk and uncertainty as follows: Risk is present when future events occur with measurable probability. Uncertainty is present when the likelihood of future events is indefinite or incalculable. Larry further explains that risk involves known probabilities, like casino odds or life insurance estimates, while uncertainty involves unknown outcomes, such as major events like the Great Depression or COVID-19.Larry explains that we sometimes know the odds of an event occurring with certainty. For example, because of demographic data, we can reasonably estimate the odds that a 65-year-old couple will have at least one spouse live beyond 90. However, we cannot know the exact odds because future advances in medical science may extend life expectancy. Conversely, new diseases may arise that shorten life expectancy.Why must you understand the difference between risk and uncertainty?Larry insists that it is crucial to understand the difference between risk and uncertainty. This understanding is key, as many investors mistakenly view equities as closer to risk, where the odds can be precisely calculated. This misconception often arises when economic conditions are favorable. The ability to estimate the odds gives investors a false sense of confidence, leading them to make decisions that exceed their ability, willingness, and need to take risks.However, Larry adds that the perception of equity investing shifts from risk to uncertainty during crises. Since investors prefer risky bets (where they can calculate the odds, like investing in a stable company with a proven track record) to uncertain bets (where the odds cannot be calculated, like investing in a startup with an unpredictable future) when the markets begin to appear to investors to become uncertain, the risk premium demanded rises, and that is what causes severe bear markets.Further, dramatic falls in prices lead to panicked selling. Larry says that investors tend to sell well after market declines have already occurred and buy well after rallies have long begun. The result is that they dramatically underperform the mutual funds they invest in.How to stay safe despite risk and uncertaintyLarry emphasizes that one key to success is understanding that equity investing is always about uncertainty. Another crucial aspect is understanding the importance of choosing an equity allocation that doesn’t exceed your risk tolerance.To further mitigate these uncertainties, Larry strongly recommends diversifying your portfolios. This strategy can provide a sense of security and preparedness in the face of market volatility. Additionally, he suggests using Monte Carlo simulations to account for various potential outcomes.Did you miss out on the previous chapters? Check them out:Part I: How Markets Work: How Security Prices are Determined and Why It’s So Difficult to OutperformEnrich Your Future 01: The Determinants of the Risk and Return of Stocks and BondsEnrich Your Future 02: How Markets Set PricesEnrich Your Future 03: Persistence of Performance: Athletes Versus Investment ManagersEnrich Your Future 04: Why Is Persistent Outperformance So Hard to Find?Enrich Your Future 05: Great Companies Do Not Make High-Return InvestmentsEnrich Your Future 06: Market Efficiency and the Case of Pete RoseEnrich Your Future 07: The Value of Security AnalysisEnrich Your Future 08: High Economic Growth Doesn’t Always Mean High Stock Market ReturnEnrich Your Future 09: The Fed Model and the Money IllusionPart II: Strategic Portfolio DecisionsEnrich Your Future 10: You Won’t Beat the Market Even the Best Funds Don’tEnrich Your Future 11: Long-Term Outperformance Is Not Always Evidence of SkillEnrich Your Future 12: When Confronted With a Loser’s Game Do Not PlayEnrich Your Future 13: Past Performance Is Not a Predictor of Future PerformanceEnrich Your Future 14: Stocks Are Risky No Matter How Long the HorizonEnrich Your Future 15: Individual Stocks Are Riskier Than You BelieveEnrich Your Future 16: The Estimated Return Is Not InevitableEnrich Your Future 17: Take a Portfolio Approach to Your InvestmentsEnrich Your Future 18: Build a Portfolio That Can Withstand the Black SwansEnrich Your Future 19: The Gold Illusion: Why Investing in Gold May Not Be SafeEnrich Your Future 20: Passive Investing Is the Key to Prudent Wealth ManagementPart III: Behavioral Finance: We Have Met the Enemy and He Is UsEnrich Your Future 21: Think You Can Beat the Market? Think AgainEnrich Your Future 22: Some Risks Are Not Worth TakingEnrich Your Future 23: Seeing Through the Frame: Making Better Investment DecisionsEnrich Your Future 24: Why Smart People Do Dumb ThingsEnrich Your Future 25: Stock Crashes Happen—Be PreparedEnrich Your Future 26: Should You Invest Now or Spread It Out?Enrich Your Future 27: Pascal’s Wager: Betting on Consequences Over ProbabilitiesEnrich Your Future 28 & 29: How to Outsmart Your Investing BiasesEnrich Your Future 30: The Hidden Cost of Chasing Dividend StocksAbout Larry SwedroeLarry Swedroe was head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners. Since joining the firm in 1996, Larry has spent his time, talent, and energy educating investors on the benefits of evidence-based investing with an enthusiasm few can match.Larry was among the first authors to publish a book that explained the science of investing in layman’s terms, “The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need.” He has authored or co-authored 18 books.Larry’s dedication to helping others has made him a sought-after national speaker. He has made appearances on national television on various outlets.Larry is a prolific writer, regularly contributing to multiple outlets, including AlphaArchitect, Advisor Perspectives, and Wealth Management. [spp-transcript] Connect with Larry SwedroeLinkedInXWebsiteBooksAndrew’s booksHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketMy Worst Investment Ever9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid ThemTransform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 PointsAndrew’s online programsValuation Master ClassThe Become a Better Investor CommunityHow to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock MarketFinance Made Ridiculously SimpleFVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the WorldBecome a Great Presenter and Increase Your InfluenceTransform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 PointsAchieve Your GoalsConnect with Andrew Stotz:astotz.comLinkedInFacebookInstagramThreadsXYouTubeMy Worst Investment Ever Podcast