ChinaTalk

John Doyle, founder of Cape and former Green Beret, teams up with Dmitri Alperovitch, cybersecurity expert and CrowdStrike co-founder, to discuss the future of secure telecom. They delve into the value of telecom data, highlighting risks like SIM-swapping and the exploitation of cell networks in conflicts such as Ukraine. Doyle reveals Cape's innovative approach to privacy-first mobile networks, while Alperovitch analyzes telecom data weaponization by various actors and Taiwan's strategies against undersea cable sabotage.

The discussion dives into OpenAI's slipping dominance in the AI space, with hosts debating its recent model rankings and performance. Dylan shares his pitch to TSMC on AI infrastructure, while Doug explores parallels between 19th-century railroad bubbles and current AI funding dynamics. The episode touches on the reluctance of Chinese consumers to pay for software, and comedy ensues with insights on leadership and contemporary politics. The hosts also ponder the necessity of bubble inflation for achieving AGI, mixing in personal anecdotes for a well-rounded conversation.

In a lively conversation, Justin Mc, a seasoned geopolitical analyst, and Tony Stark, a military strategist, dissect the ambitious Witkoff/Trump peace plan for Ukraine. They analyze its historical parallels and skepticism regarding enforcement. Topics include the economic implications for Russia and China, the fragility of guarantees, and the challenges of US diplomacy. With insights on Russian military power and lessons from Syria, they also critique Europe's leadership and historical narratives, wrapping up with a humorous take on William Manchester's memoir.

Zixuan Li, Director of Product and genAI Strategy at Z.ai, dives into the innovative realms of Chinese AI. He discusses Z.ai's groundbreaking GLM 4.5 model and what makes it stand out, including its coding and role-playing capabilities. Zixuan also explores the quest for global recognition among Chinese AI firms, highlighting the critical role of open-source models. He shares insights on the balance of optimism and fear in public attitudes towards AI and the unique cultural aspects of AI development in China. It's a fascinating look at the intersection of technology and society.

Jake Sullivan, a former National Security Advisor and current Harvard professor, shares insights on managing crises and U.S. strategy during the Biden administration. He discusses the evolution of industrial policy, risks in the Taiwan Strait, and how experience shapes decision-making in high-stakes environments. Sullivan also explores the implications of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and the complexities of U.S.-China relations. He emphasizes a balanced approach to crisis management while maintaining long-term strategic focus.

Pete Modigliani, a defense tech and acquisition expert, and Matt McGregor, a practitioner in defense acquisitions, dive into the complexities of acquisition reform. They explore the influx of private capital into defense startups and the struggles of prime contractors to adapt to rapid innovation. Discussions touch on the urgent need for cultural shifts within the Department of Defense, how to streamline supply chains, and the importance of integrating non-traditional vendors. Finally, they ponder the potential impact of software solutions on vendor relationships.

Afra Wang, a writer and tech culture researcher, brings insightful perspectives on AI companions in this discussion. She explores the stark cultural differences shaping AI girlfriends in the U.S. versus AI boyfriends in China. The conversation dives into the Hefei model's role in amplifying China's AI ecosystem and how mobile boyfriend games influence companion adoption. Afra also discusses the implications of AI personalities in social interactions, including issues of trust and potential disinformation. It's a thought-provoking look at technology's evolving role in human relationships.

Tony Stark, an Army veteran and defense policy commentator, joins former Green Beret Justin McIntosh and lawyer Eric Robinson, who both have extensive military backgrounds. They dive into Colby's Senate hearing blunders and the impact of strategic miscommunication. The discussion shifts to counter-drone tactics, emphasizing the need for realistic training to prepare forces, and they explore lessons from Ukraine without overextending assumptions. The guests advocate for modernizing training approaches to ensure readiness and adaptability in an evolving battlefield.

Peter Harrell, a former U.S. trade official, and Oren Cass, founder of American Compass, dive into the Supreme Court's examination of tariffs under the IEPA. They explore the complexities of U.S.-China trade relations, discussing the challenges of reciprocity and the implications of decoupling. The duo reflects on the strategic importance of the USMCA and ways it could reshape North American trade. They also assess the Biden and Trump administrations' differing approaches to economic strategy and national security concerning China.

Tyler Jost, a Brown University professor and author of *Bureaucracies at War*, explores how leaders misjudge foreign policy despite expert advice. He reveals how Mao’s early successes weakened his decision-making and discusses the dangerous echo chambers formed within bureaucracies. Jost dives into Deng’s miscalculation in Vietnam, highlighting the role of succession pressures. He also examines LBJ’s strategic blunders, shaped by loyalty over expertise, and draws parallels to Xi Jinping’s current governance challenges, stressing the need for improved communication to avoid past mistakes.