This week, Congress passed the FY 2023 National Defense Authorization Act, the NDAA, which President Biden is expected to sign into law. It’s a massive bill, thousands of pages long, that provides the Defense Department with an $858 billion dollar budget for next year. Buried in the law are some key reforms (or lack of reforms) for how the United States goes to war and how it responds when civilians are injured or killed. To discuss what the NDAA says about war powers and civilian protection, and where the bill is silent, we have Brian Finucane, Heather Brandon-Smith, and Annie Shiel. Brian is a Senior Advisor at Crisis Group and a member of the Just Security editorial board. For a decade, he was a lawyer with the State Department where he advised the federal government on counterterrorism and use of force. Heather is a Legislative Director at the Friends Committee on National Legislation, a nonpartisan organization that lobbies to advance peace, justice, and protecting the environment. Annie is a Senior Advisor at the Center for Civilians in Conflict, CIVIC, which works to develop and implement solutions to prevent, mitigate, and respond to civilian harm. Show Notes: Brian Finucane (@BCFinucane)Heather Brandon-Smith (@HBrandonSmith)         Annie Shiel (@annieshiel)Brian and Heather’s Just Security article on the FY 2023 NDAA Just Security's series on the FY 2023 NDAA Just Security’s NDAA archive6:28 Statement by U.S. General Frank McKenzie on Aug. 29, 2021 Kabul drone strike that killed 10 civilians 6: 17 New York Times coverage of Aug. 29, 2021 Kabul drone strike that killed 10 civilians 6:50 New York Times coverage of March 18, 2019 Baghuz, Syria, drone strike that killed nearly 80 civilians 7:38 DOD’s Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan (CHMRAP)Music: “The Parade” by “Hey Pluto!” from Uppbeat: https://uppbeat.io/t/hey-pluto/the-parade (License code: 36B6ODD7Y6ODZ3BX)

On Dec. 6, Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock won a special runoff election in Georgia against Republican candidate Herschel Walker. Warnock’s victory gives Democrats a slim, but solid, majority of 51 to 49 in the Senate. The new majority allows Democrats to control everything from investigations and oversight to key legislation and committee placements. Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s announcement that she will register as a political Independent is unlikely to impact the power balance in the next Senate. The Democratic majority already includes two Independents who caucus with them, Senators Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine. To unpack the many implications of Warnock's win, we had Andy Wright, a member of Just Security's Editorial Board and partner at the law firm K&L Gates in Washington, D.C. Andy is an expert on Congressional oversight and previously served in senior legal roles at the White House and on Congressional committees. Show Notes: Andy Wright (@AndyMcCanse) 1:10 Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s interview announcing she will register as an Independent 12:30 NYU’s American Journalism Online ProgramMusic: “The Parade” by “Hey Pluto!” from Uppbeat: https://uppbeat.io/t/hey-pluto/the-parade (License code: 36B6ODD7Y6ODZ3BX)

Every year, nations from around the world gather for a meeting on climate change. It's called the Conference of State Parties, or COP, and this year it took place in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. To speak about the big trends of COP 27 and the major takeaways for what happens next, we have Mark Nevitt, a professor at Emory Law School and an expert on climate change and national security.Show Notes: Mark Nevitt (@MarkNevitt) 5:17 Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif’s remarks to the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 23, 2022 8:13 Seychelles President Wavel Ramkalawan’s remarks at COP 27 on Nov. 8, 202216:10 NYU’s American Journalism Online Program16:40 Mark’s Just Security article previewing COP 27 Just Security’s COP 27 tracker with notable moments and key themes  Lisa Benjamin’s (@DrLisaBenjamin) Just Security article analyzing the future of loss and damage after COP 27Music: “The Parade” by “Hey Pluto!” from Uppbeat: https://uppbeat.io/t/hey-pluto/the-parade (License code: 36B6ODD7Y6ODZ3BX)

It’s been over three months since the FBI searched Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home. We know that Trump kept classified documents after he left office. But since the search, we haven’t heard much information about what exactly the Justice Department plans to do about it. That’s pretty common. After all, investigations take time. Whatever the Justice Department’s timeline is, the investigation is likely to end in a document called a Prosecution Memorandum. It’s what prosecutors use when they evaluate whether to charge a person with a crime. And for Trump, that type of memo will be especially confidential and sensitive. It’s likely to present all the evidence, like what the FBI learned from searching Mar-a-Lago, consider what federal laws Trump might have broken, and analyze Trump’s best defenses.Just Security’s “Model Prosecution Memo” considers the publicly available information from court documents and news reports. It also compares Trump’s alleged conduct to the entire universe of cases that DOJ has prosecuted under the same criminal laws. The memo concludes that Trump’s conduct exceeds the gravity of other former officials who the Justice Department has charged for the mishandling of classified documents. To discuss the Model Prosecution Memo we have Andrew Weissmann, Joyce Vance, and Ryan Goodman, who were among the memo’s authors. Andrew has served in many senior Justice Department roles, including on the core team for Special Counsel Robert Mueller, Joyce served as the former United States Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama, and Ryan is Just Security’s Co-Editor-in-Chief. Show Notes:  Andrew Weissmann (@AWeissmann_)  Joyce Vance (@JoyceWhiteVance) Ryan Goodman (@rgoodlaw) Just Security Model Prosecution MemoJust Security tracker Evidence of Trump’s Knowledge and Involvement in Retaining Mar-a-Lago DocumentsNYU’s American Journalism Online Program (@nyu_ajo)Music: “The Parade” by “Hey Pluto!” from Uppbeat: https://uppbeat.io/t/hey-pluto/the-parade (License code: 36B6ODD7Y6ODZ3BX)

The January 6th Committee is wrapping up its work, which has provided a detailed account of the individuals and groups involved in the attack. Thanks to the Committee, we know that law enforcement agencies like the FBI had intelligence about the attack ahead of time. What we don’t know is how they used that information or why they failed to stop the attack. Joining on this episode to discuss what the FBI knew, the culture inside the Bureau, and how to address reforms, are Andrew McCabe and Asha Rangappa. Andrew served as the FBI’s Deputy Director and Acting Director during the Obama and Trump administrations, and Asha is a former FBI special agent. Show Notes:  Asha Rangappa (@AshaRangappa_) Andrew McCabeRyan Goodman (@rgoodlaw) Asha’s Just Security article “The Missing Review of FBI’s January 6 Intelligence and Law Enforcement Failures”January 6th Committee websiteMusic: “The Parade” by “Hey Pluto!” from Uppbeat: https://uppbeat.io/t/hey-pluto/the-parade (License code: 36B6ODD7Y6ODZ3BX)

This year, the war in Ukraine has dominated news headlines and been on everyone’s mind. At the heart of it is Russian President Vladimir Putin, who began his career as a spy with the KGB. To understand a former spy, you need a former spy. Doug London is fluent in Russian and spent nearly 40 years with the CIA, as an operations officer and station chief in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. On this episode, he discusses Putin’s background, mindset, and strategies for the United States and others to address Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Show Notes: Douglas London (@douglaslondon5)5:25 New York Times coverage of Russian leadership considering the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine Doug’s book The Recruiter: Spying and the Lost Art of American IntelligenceDoug’s Just Security article analyzing Putin’s mindset Music: “The Parade” by “Hey Pluto!” from Uppbeat: https://uppbeat.io/t/hey-pluto/the-parade (License code: 36B6ODD7Y6ODZ3BX)

New York Times national security correspondent Charlie Savage reported that the Biden administration has issued a still-classified policy on some types of counterterrorism operations, such as drone strikes and commando raids. That policy, the Presidential Policy Memorandum (PPM), follows earlier guidance from the Obama and Trump administrations. For reactions to the PPM, Just Security has a written mini-series from our lineup of expert authors. On this week’s episode, Yale Law School professor Oona Hathaway and New America International Security Program Fellow Luke Hartig discuss the Biden plan and what it all means for U.S. counterterrorism efforts and forever war. Show Notes:Oona A. Hathaway (@oonahathaway)  Luke Hartig (@LukeHartig)Just Security mini-series on President Biden’s Presidential Policy Memo (PPM)0:23 Charlie Savage’s NYT article on the PPM2:20 President Obama’s Presidential Policy Guidance (PPG)3:12 President Trump’s Principles, Standards, and Procedures (PSP) 16:33  New York Times coverage of Aug. 29, 2021 Kabul drone strike that killed 10 civilians 17:40 New York Times coverage of March 18, 2019 Baghuz drone strike that killed about 70 civilians 18:20 Azmat Khan’s Pulitzer-winning reporting on U.S. drone strikes in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan Music: “The Parade” by “Hey Pluto!” from Uppbeat: https://uppbeat.io/t/hey-pluto/the-parade (License code: 36B6ODD7Y6ODZ3BX)