EA Forum Podcast (All audio)

Are you looking for a project where you could substantially improve indoor air quality, with benefits both to general health and reducing pandemic risk? I've written a bunch about air purifiers over the past few years, and its frustrating how bad commercial market is. The most glaring problem is the widespread use of HEPA filters. These are very effective filters that, unavoidably, offer significant resistance to air flow. HEPA is a great option for filtering air in single pass, such as with an outdoor air intake or a biosafety cabinet, but it's the wrong set of tradeoffs for cleaning the air that's already in the room. Air passing through a HEPA filter removes 99.97% of particles, but then it's mixed back in with the rest of the room air. If you can instead remove 99% of particles from 2% more air, or 90% from 15% more [...] --- First published: May 11th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8BEqanpJFGhisETBi/better-air-purifiers --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Epistemic status: thing people have told me that seems right. Also primarily relevant to US audiences. Also I am speaking in my personal capacity and not representing any employer, present or past. Sometimes, I talk to people who work in the AI governance space. One thing that multiple people have told me, which I found surprising, is that there is apparently a real problem where people accidentally rule themselves out of AI policy positions by making political donations of small amounts—in particular, under $10. My understanding is that in the United States, donations to political candidates are a matter of public record, and that if you donate to candidates of one party, this might look bad if you want to gain a government position when another party is in charge. Therefore, donating approximately $3 can significantly damage your career, while not helping your preferred candidate all that [...] --- First published: May 11th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fe5eXxxzRmH7RjAdF/consider-not-donating-under-usd100-to-political-candidates --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Summary Broiler welfare and cage-free reforms change the amount of feed needed to produce a given quantity of chicken meat or eggs. So they affect feed production, and therefore result in land use change. The density and welfare conditions of wild animals vary by type of land, so chicken welfare reforms influence wild animal welfare. I estimate broiler welfare (cage-free) reforms increase or decrease the welfare of wild arthropods 47.7 (4.66) times as much as they increase the welfare of broilers (hens). Nonetheless, the effects on arthropods can be anything from negligible to much larger. I estimate uncertainty in arthropods’ welfare range alone means broiler welfare reforms increase or decrease their welfare 0 to 1.74 k times as much as they increase the welfare of broilers, and cage-free reforms increase or decrease their welfare 0 to 170 times as much as they increase the welfare of hens (5th to 95th [...] ---Outline:(00:12) Summary(03:31) Effects of cage-free reforms(03:36) Overview(04:07) Broiler welfare reforms(09:52) Cage-free reforms(14:34) Comparisons(16:59) Discussion(17:02) Effects on arthropods(24:53) My recommendations(32:23) Acknowledgements--- First published: May 9th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3vnKMuqhNP6faF97s/chicken-welfare-reforms-may-be-harmful-accounting-for --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

This is a link post. Note: During my final review of this post I came across a whole slew of posts on LessWrong and this forum from several years ago saying many of the same things. While much of this may be rehashing existing arguments, I think the fact that it's still not part of the general discussions means it's worth bringing up again. Full list of similar articles at the end of the post, and I'm always interested in major things I'm getting wrong or key sources I'm missing. After a 12-week course on AI Safety, I can't shake a nagging thought: there's an obvious (though not easy) solution to the existential risks of AGI. It's treated as axiomatic in certain circles that Artificial General Intelligence is coming. Discussions focus on when, how disruptive it'll be, and whether we can align it. The default stance is either "We'll [...] ---Outline:(00:14) en-US-AvaMultilingualNeural__ Cartoon figure and small robot contemplating What if we just didnt build AGI?(03:25) 1. Why The Relentless Drive Towards The Precipice?(07:23) 2. Surveying The Utopian Blueprints (And Noticing The Cracks)(09:44) 3. Why AGI Might Be Bad (Abridged Edition)(14:23) 4. Existence Proofs For Restraint: Sometimes, We Can Just Say No(18:46) 5. So, Whats The Alternative Path?(27:19) 6. Addressing The Inevitable Objections(30:35) 7. Conclusion: Choosing Not To Roll The Dice(34:08) The Problem of Aligned To Whom?(36:25) The Target is Moving(41:57) Why Do People Want AGI?(47:21) Solving Alignment is a Category Mistake(53:23) Prior Examples of Coordinated Tech Avoidance(57:04) So What Can We Do?(01:04:47) Brainstorm & Ideation(01:04:50) Potential Topics(01:07:02) Topic Scoring(01:07:22) Selected Concept(01:07:30) Audience & Goals(01:07:33) Target Audience(01:07:45) Audience Benefit(01:07:59) Format & Outline(01:08:01) Deliverable Format(01:08:08) Initial Outline/Storyboard(01:08:32) Sources/Thoughts--- First published: May 10th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XiTojJxEoEy4Kya9D/what-if-we-just-didn-t-build-agi-an-argument-against Linkpost URL:https://natezsharpe.substack.com/p/what-if-we-justdidnt-build-agi --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Citation: McKay, H. and Shah, S. (2025). Forecasting farmed animal numbers in 2033. Rethink Priorities. The report is also available on the Rethink Priorities website. Executive summary We produced rough-and-ready forecasts of the number of animals farmed in 2033 with the aim of helping advocates and funders with prioritization decisions. We focus on the most numerous groups of farmed animals: broiler chickens, finfishes, shrimps, and select insect species. Our forecasts suggest almost 6 trillion of these animals could be slaughtered in 2033 (Figure 1). Figure 1: Invertebrates could account for 95% of farmed animals slaughtered in 2033 according to our midpoint estimates. Note that ‘Insects’ only includes black soldier fly larvae and mealworms. Our midpoint estimates point to a potential fourfold increase in the number of animals slaughtered from 2023 to 2033 and a doubling of the number of animals farmed at any time. Invertebrates drive the majority of [...] ---Outline:(00:31) Executive summary(03:37) Introduction(05:54) Findings(05:58) Animal farming is set to grow over the next decade(08:02) Almost 6 trillion animals could be slaughtered in 2033(10:45) Today, most farmed animals are invertebrates and this majority will likely increase in the future(13:07) Insect farming could be the fastest-growing animal agriculture industry going forward, but its future is uncertain(15:04) Implications for animal advocacy(16:50) Caveats(20:45) Acknowledgements(20:53) Appendix 1: Method(20:58) Overview(22:53) Data sources(24:14) Appendix 2: Graphs with credible intervals(24:59) ReferencesThe original text contained 11 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: May 9th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Rw3iXiJ4Fw4ePu4t6/forecasting-farmed-animal-numbers-in-2033 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Is feeling good the opposite of feeling bad? I interviewed Michael about this topic among others in the first episode of my podcast! Here's the link to it on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Please reach out if you'd like to be a guest ☀️ --- First published: May 8th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/C5gvbd8DaFX2GEofL/podcast-episode-with-michael-st-jules --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

We made a bet on the AI market crashing by the end of 2026. The odds are $5k:$25k with an implied probability of 16.67%. If there is no crash, Remmelt pays Marcus $5,000. If there is a crash, Marcus pays Remmelt $25,000. An AI market crash will be defined, for the purposes of this bet, as at least 2 out of 3 of the following criteria being met. Here are our criteria: OpenAI's 2025 or 2026 annual revenue is below $1.6 billion. Anthropic's 2025 or 2026 annual revenue is below $400 million. Nvidia's data center revenue in any quarter from now to Q4 2026 is below $8.5 billion. [1] It's hard to come up with criteria for what constitutes an AI market crash, as many operationalizations face confounding factors that don’t constitute a crash. These criteria were chosen since these are three of the most prominent AI-related [...] --- First published: May 8th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/G83rs2yex9rmSe6ML/our-bet-on-whether-the-ai-market-will-crash --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

This is a Forum Team crosspost from Substack. Whither cause prioritization and connection with the good? There's a trend towards people who once identified as Effective Altruists now identifying solely as “people working on AI safety.”[1] For those in the loop, it feels like less of a trend and more of a tidal wave. There's an increasing sense that among the most prominent (formerly?) EA orgs and individuals, making AGI go well is functionally all that matters. For that end, so the trend goes, the ideas of Effective Altruism have exhausted their usefulness. They pointed us to the right problem – thanks; we’ll take it from here. And taking it from here means building organizations, talent bases, and political alliances at a scale incommensurate with attachment to a niche ideology or moralizing language generally. I think this a dangerous path to go down too hard and my impression [...] ---Outline:(02:39) What I see(06:35) The threat means pose to ends(11:12) Losing something moreThe original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: May 8th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CKKAga4HfQyAranaC/the-soul-of-ea-is-in-trouble --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

A Project of the NYU Wild Animal Welfare Program Thanks to a generous grant from the New York Community Trust, the NYU Wild Animal Welfare Program is thrilled to announce a first-of-its-kind project at the science-policy nexus: the Wildlife Inclusive Local Development (WILD) Lab. The WILD Lab is an applied research and outreach initiative dedicated to advancing the welfare of wild animals in urban environments by aiming to understand how urban infrastructure affects wild animals, and how governments and communities can respond. Our work will involve interdisciplinary research and cross-sectoral collaboration with four main areas of focus: Scientific research: Investigating the impacts of urban infrastructure and land use practices on wild animal welfare in cities   GIS mapping: Producing spatial maps documenting urban wildlife and the ecological factors that may influence their wellbeing   Policy analysis: Conducting policy analysis and developing guidance for integrating wild animal welfare [...] --- First published: May 8th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wqc8eDb9RMhmxdbeZ/announcing-the-wildlife-inclusive-local-development-wild-lab --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

I am Jason Green-Lowe, the executive director of the Center for AI Policy (CAIP). Our mission is to directly convince Congress to pass strong AI safety legislation. As I explain in some detail in this post, I think our organization has been doing extremely important work, and that we’ve been doing well at it. Unfortunately, we have been unable to get funding from traditional donors to continue our operations. If we don’t get more funding in the next 30 days, we will have to shut down, which will damage our relationships with Congress and make it harder for future advocates to get traction on AI governance. In this post, I explain what we’ve been doing, why I think it's valuable, and how your donations could help. This is the first post in what I expect will be a 3-part series. The first post focuses on CAIP's particular need [...] ---Outline:(01:33) OUR MISSION AND STRATEGY(02:59) Our Model Legislation(04:17) Direct Meetings with Congressional Staffers(05:20) Expert Panel Briefings(06:16) AI Policy Happy Hours(06:43) Op-Eds & Policy Papers(07:22) Grassroots & Grasstops Organizing(09:13) Whats Unique About CAIP?(10:26) OUR ACCOMPLISHMENTS(10:29) Quantifiable Outputs(11:21) Changing the Media Narrative(12:23) Proof of Concept(13:44) Outcomes -- Congressional Engagement(18:29) Context(19:54) OUR PROPOSED POLICIES(19:58) Mandatory Audits for Frontier AI(21:23) Liability Reform(22:32) Hardware Monitoring(24:11) Emergency Powers(25:31) Further Details(25:41) RESPONSES TO COMMON POLICY OBJECTIONS(25:46) 1. Why not push for a ban or pause on superintelligence research?(30:17) 2. Why not support bills that have a better chance of passing this year, like funding for NIST or NAIRR?(32:30) 3. If Congress is so slow to act, why should anyone be working with Congress at all? Why not focus on promoting state laws or voluntary standards?(35:09) 4. Why would you push the US to unilaterally disarm? Don't we instead need a global treaty regulating AI (or subsidies for US developers) to avoid handing control of the future to China?(37:24) 5. Why haven't you accomplished your mission yet? If your organization is effective, shouldn't you have passed some of your legislation by now, or at least found some powerful Congressional sponsors for it?(40:56) OUR TEAM(41:53) Executive Director(44:04) Government Relations Team(45:12) Policy Team(46:08) Communications Team(47:29) Operations Team(48:11) Personnel Changes(48:49) OUR PLAN IF FUNDED(51:58) OUR FUNDING SITUATION(52:02) Our Expenses & Runway(53:02) No Good Way to Cut Costs(55:22) Our Revenue(57:02) Surprise Budget Deficit(59:00) The Bottom Line--- First published: May 7th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9uZHnEkhXZjWzia7F/please-donate-to-caip-post-1-of-3-on-ai-governance --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.