EA Forum Podcast (All audio) “Our bet on whether the AI market will crash” by Remmelt, Marcus Abramovitch 🔸
May 8, 2025
03:09
We made a bet on the AI market crashing by the end of 2026.
The odds are $5k:$25k with an implied probability of 16.67%. If there is no crash, Remmelt pays Marcus $5,000. If there is a crash, Marcus pays Remmelt $25,000.
An AI market crash will be defined, for the purposes of this bet, as at least 2 out of 3 of the following criteria being met.
Here are our criteria:
- OpenAI's 2025 or 2026 annual revenue is below $1.6 billion.
- Anthropic's 2025 or 2026 annual revenue is below $400 million.
- Nvidia's data center revenue in any quarter from now to Q4 2026 is below $8.5 billion. [1]
It's hard to come up with criteria for what constitutes an AI market crash, as many operationalizations face confounding factors that don’t constitute a crash. These criteria were chosen since these are three of the most prominent AI-related [...]
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First published:
May 8th, 2025
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.