Flirting with Models

My guest this episode is Cem Karsan, Founder and Senior Managing Partner of Aegea Capital Management. Cem began his career in the pits, and so we begin our conversation with a discussion by comparing and contrasting today’s market versus days gone by. And, perhaps more importantly, the wisdom gained from that era. It was in the pits that Cem began to understand and develop his intuition for markets and what would become the colorful cast of characters he uses to describe what’s driving flow: Gary the Gorilla, Vanna, and Charm the Sloth. How these characters cooperate or fight amongst themselves provides Cem with a forecast as to how markets should behave. It seems like these are new and growing forces, but Cem argues they’re as old as time. And, more importantly, increased awareness does not mean they can just be arbed away: they are, potentially, fundamental forces of markets. We end our conversation with a discussion of how these flows can have profound impacts for equity factor performance and what this all means for stock pickers. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Cem Karsan.

In this episode I am going to read Newfound’s latest research paper, LIQUIDITY CASCADES: The Coordinated Risk of Uncoordinated Market Participants. This reading will refer to a number of figures within the paper, so I urge you to go to our website, thinknewfound.com, and download the PDF so you get better follow along. This paper is unlike any research we've shared in the past. Within we dive into the circumstantial evidence surrounding the "weird" behavior many investors believe markets are exhibiting. We tackle narratives such as the impact of central bank intervention, the growing scale of passive / indexed investing, and asymmetric liquidity provisioning. Spoiler: Individually, the evidence for these narratives may be nothing more than circumstantial. In conjunction, however, they share pro-cyclical patterns that put pressure upon the same latent risk: liquidity. In the last part of the paper we discuss some ideas for how investors might try to build portfolios that can both seek to exploit these dynamics as well as remain resilient to them. I hope you enjoy.

My guest this episode is Kris Sidial, co-CIO of The Ambrus Group, a volatility arbitrage focused firm founded in 2018. Kris recently joined Ambrus after spending several years on BMO’s exotic and listed options desks. While time on these desks gave Kris the experience of managing a large derivatives book, what convinced him to take the leap to a new firm was growing confidence in a thesis that market micro-structure had undergone a regime shift. And in Kris’s view, this regime shift supports his approach to building a volatility arbitrage book. Kris’s approach is broken down into two sleeves: long and short volatility. Within long volatility, Kris plays a unique flavor of dispersion trading. Within short volatility Kris plays contango in the VIX futures curve and kurtosis trades that seek to exploit mean-reversion and overpriced volatility. With several moving pieces, we spend the back half of the episode discussing each sleeve, the underlying approach, how Kris thinks about managing risk, and how it fits into the whole. What becomes clear is that while we discuss each sleeve independently, they do not exist in isolation. The portfolio is designed to co-exist, with careful thought about how positions in one sleeve offset risk in another. From a unique fundamental outlook to the holistic approach to portfolio construction, this episode has a lot to offer. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Kris Sidial.

“Keep an open mind. But not so open your mind falls out.” My guest in this episode needs little introduction: Cliff Asness, co-founder and managing partner at AQR. Cliff has done dozens of interviews, podcasts, talks, and fireside chats over the years. He is also a prolific writer. So, my goal in this conversation was to try to find the questions he hadn’t been asked before or had not answered himself already. How did his formative experiences in the dotcom bubble shape his perception of markets? Why should we stick to factors like grim death? Which of his dozens of papers have been woefully overlooked? Where has he changed his mind over the years and what is he most confident in going forward? Cliff is fountain of knowledge of quant history, research, and practical experience and tells some fantastic stories along the way. Please enjoy my conversation with Cliff Asness.

Today I chat with Euan Sinclair, Partner at Talton Capital Management and author of the books Options Trading, Volatility Trading, and the up-coming Positional Option Trading. We begin our discussion with Euan’s experience as a market maker as I try to get a better understanding of what a market making operation really looks like from the inside and how it has changed over the last 15 years. Of particular interest to me, given how much market makers have been villianized in recent years, were Euan’s comments on misconceptions about market makers. We then turn to the buy side, where Euan has spent recent years and is largely the subject of his new book. We discuss common mistakes, sources of edge, thinking about directional versus volatility bets, and the seemingly overwhelming degrees of freedom that options trading offers. I know I walked away from our conversation with both an increased appreciation of the nuance in these topics, but also several new ideas for both edge and risk management. Please enjoy my conversation with Euan Sinclair.

Today I am speaking with Omer Cedar, CEO and co-founder of OmegaPoint. One of the significant trends in quant equity over the last decade has been the attempt to better control for unintended bets and idiosyncratic risks. At OmegaPoint, Omer comes at the problem from the opposite direction: helping fundamental managers better focus on their idiosyncratic risk and recognize the factor risks they may be unintentionally taking. We discuss how quantitative investors have impacted markets, how fundamental managers should think about factors, the low-hanging fruit for optimization, and surprising lessons Omer has learned in evaluating fundamental portfolios. The idea of embracing idiosyncratic returns is, arguably, the antithesis of traditional quant investing. But in discussing the lessons learned about unintended bets from the opposite direction, I think there are important ideas that quants can take away. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Omer Cedar.

My guest in this episode is Sandrine Ungari, Head of Cross-Asset Quantitative Research at SocGen. Sandrine cut her teeth in the industry as a fixed-income pricing quant, but made her way over to sell-side, investment quant research in 2006. Her early research focused on credit and macro, but since 2012 has been heavily focused on equity and alternative risk premia. Our conversation begins with equity factors and Sandrine provides insight both into how factor construction has evolved over the last decade as well as her thoughts into where the field is headed. We broaden our discussion to include alternative risk premia, and Sandrine provides a useful mental map for categorizing this broad range of strategies. We discuss the risks of crowding, latent beta risk in levered factors, and the influence of macro economic factors. More recently, Sandrine has focused her research in the application of machine learning in strategy construction. We discuss one particular example – the application of a recurrent neural network in trend following – and Sandrine shares her views as to how machine learning might affect factor investing going forward. Sandrine also shares some interesting ideas about where future risk premia might emerge from – but you’ll have to tune in to hear! Please enjoy my conversation with Sandrine Ungari.

In this episode I speak with Dr. Michael Hunstad, Head of Quantitative Strategies at Northern Trust. Our conversation centers around the four key trends Michael is seeing among institutional allocators in the factor space today. These trends are (1) the adoption of factors to manage concentration risk in market-cap weighted benchmarks, (2) a move from single- to multi-factor implementations, (3) using factors to de-risk equity exposure, and (4) a tactical tilt towards value. But Michael isn’t afraid to get in the weeds. He discusses the risks of unintended exposures at length and at one point even explains the importance of matching decay speeds of different factor signals within multi-factor implementations. For those interested both in the macro trends and the micro details of factor investing, this is not one to miss. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Dr. Michael Hunstad.

In this episode I chat with Mads Ingwar and Martin Oberhuber, co-founders of Kvasir Technologies, a systematic hedge fund powered by a full-stack application of machine learning. By full-stack I mean every layer of the process, including data ingestion, signal generation, portfolio construction, and execution, which gives us a lot to talk about. Our conversation covers topics ranging from the limitations of machine learning and hard lessons learned to how to keep up in a rapidly evolving field and thoughts about managing model risk. Given the niche knowledge in a field like machine learning, some of my favorite answers came when I asked how they might perform due diligence upon themselves or where they think other adopters of machine learning go wrong. For allocators, I think these answers are priceless. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Mads and Martin.

My guest is Eric Crittenden, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Standpoint Funds. Eric has spent his career with trend following strategies, first at BlackStar where he managed a fund-of-funds, then at Longboard, and now at Standpoint Funds. This background makes him not only a fountain of knowledge on trend following theory, but also the operational logistics and practical considerations. In this episode our conversation ranges from the source of the trend-following premium to novel concepts for stress-testing managed futures programs. We discuss the struggles the space has faced, the evolution of CTAs, how to think about dispersion among managers, and how Eric thinks about solving for client behavior. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Eric Crittenden.