Flirting with Models

In this episode I speak with Roxton McNeal, Head of Multi Asset Investment Strategy & Allocation at the UPS Investment Trust. Before landing at UPS, Roxton’s career took him through the world of CTAs, developing hedge models for bonny light oil, and working in asset/liability management at General Motors. Each of these roles likely deserves its own podcast, but I do my best to pull a nugget of wisdom from each experience. Where we spend the bulk of the conversation is in Roxton’s current role at at the UPS Investment Trust. We touch on many of he hot-button issues among institutional allocators, including the role of glide paths, private investing, tactical asset allocation, and tail risk hedging. I think what makes this conversation particularly interesting is how the constraints and realities of liability-driven investing shapes Roxton’s views in these areas. Please enjoy my conversation with Roxton McNeal.

Vivek Viswanathan is the Head of Research at Rayliant Global, a quantitative asset manager focused on generating alpha from investing in China and other inefficient emerging markets. Our conversation circles around three primary topics. The first is the features that make China a particularly attractive market for quantitative investing and some of the challenges that accompany it. The second is Vish’s transition from a factor-based perspective to an unconstrained, characteristic-driven one. Finally, the critical role that machine learning plays in managing a characteristic-driven portfolio. And at the end of the conversation we are left with a full picture of what it takes to be a successful, quantitative investor in China. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Vivek Viswanathan.

My guest this episode is Tobias Carlisle, author, podcast host, and founder of Acquirers Funds. Toby joined me in Season 1 where we discussed his background and overall investment philosophy. In this episode, we dive right into the well-documented woes of value investing. Rather than rehash the usual narratives, however, I wanted to get Toby’s views as to how this environment is unique. We spend time discussing relative versus absolute cheapness, the potentially arbitrary constraints of value and growth definitions, and whether value can ever be effective for investing in the right tail. In the latter part of the episode, we discuss the two funds Toby manages, including a large-cap long/short and a small/micro long-only. We cover performance in 2020, the practical difficulties of shorting, and how investing considerations are unique in the microcap space. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Tobias Carlisle.

In this episode I speak with Sam Trabucco from Alameda Research. Alameda manages over $100mm in digital assets and trades between $600mm and $1.5bn per day. We begin our conversation with a discussion around the features that distinguish crypto markets from traditional markets. What becomes a recurring theme in the conversation is how decentralization and fragmentation present both an opportunity and a challenge. Sam provides some color into the easiest and hardest alpha he’s earned, including exploiting a spot arbitrage with a US dollar, Bitcoin, and Japanese Yen triangle trade. But not all trades are that complicated: sometimes, it’s just buying Dogecoin when Elon Musk tweets about it. We spend the back half of the conversation discussing operational issues such as managing collateral, block-time versus clock-time, transaction costs, exchange risk, and regulatory risk. For a highly systematic team, Alameda spends a good deal of time trying to qualitatively judge where the juice is worth the squeeze. I found this chat to be incredibly insightful into the world of crypto trading, and I hope you do too. Please enjoy my conversation with Sam Trabucco.

In this episode I speak with Dennis Davitt, CEO of Millbank Dartmoor Portsmouth. Dennis began his career in the option pits of New York and Chicago and eventually worked his way to managing the equity derivatives desk for Credit Suisse. These experiences taught Dennis two important lessons. First, respect markets over models. Secondly, always ask: “what’s the motivation behind this transaction?” And for each of these lessons, Dennis offers a number of stories to entertain us. In 2013, Dennis left the sell side to join the buy side, and shares with us some important lessons learned about both productizing knowledge and client communication. In the back half of the conversation we discuss Dennis’s new firm, the opportunity he currently sees in short volatility, ideas for creating a hedged equity strategy when hedging is expensive, and why investors might want to take a page from Moneyball. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Dennis Davitt.

Angus Cameron is the Founder and CIO of Liminal Capital, a machine-learning focused investment manager. But Angus does not come to markets with a computer science PhD. Rather, his career arc took him through the prop desks and buyside of Asia, trading global fixed income, FX, equity markets, and arbitrage strategies on a discretionary basis. A machine-learning driven approach is a new endeavor, but one informed by the wisdom of experience. Angus would consider himself a quantitative trader, not a quantitative investor, and his approach reflects that. Like many systematic investors, Angus breaks the broad investment problem down into data ingestion, idea generation, position management, and risk management. Where he differs from many past guests is in the latter two pieces. Informed by his trading experience, Angus places a strong emphasis on trade structuring and on-going position management. Liminal automates this philosophy by using swarms of systematic trading agents to place and manage different trades based upon the same underlying signals. From market structure to machine learning: we cover the full range. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Angus Cameron.

In this episode I speak with Guillermo Roditi Dominguez, managing director at New River Investments. This was one of the more unique and wide-ranging conversations I have had on the podcast to date. We begin by discussing Guillermo’s approach to portfolio construction, which is heavily focused on the idea of under-writing risk. How he goes about achieving this, though, takes us from adjusted valuation measures to the positioning of large, systematic players and even to the importance of higher frequency tax data. After discussing the macro framework, we dive into how decisions are made within equities and fixed income. Again, Guillermo stays consistent to his philosophy of underwriting risk and I found his example of allocating to mid-caps versus large-caps in 2020 to be particularly insightful. While we spend a lot of the episode talking about under-writing risk, we end the episode with Guillermo’s view as to why the right tail is actually more difficult to manage. So make sure you stick around for that. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Guillermo Roditi Dominguez.

Tina Lindstrom is a Partner at First NY, where she manages an oil volatility portfolio. She began her career at Susquehanna and eventually worked her way up to managing both the high cap equity index group and the commodity volatility group. This gives her the unique perspective to be able to compare and contrast how these two markets operate. Tina explains what makes commodity markets unique, how the structure of markets has changed over time, how relative value trades might emerge, and what happens when you’re trading volatility and front-month futures go negative. Please enjoy my conversation with Tina Lindstrom.

David Fauchier from Nickel Digital Asset Management discusses the evolution and fragmentation of crypto markets, highlighting differences in rules and opportunities. He explores why traditional high-frequency funds may not dominate crypto. The conversation also delves into managing a fund in the crypto space, addressing risks in asset exchange and custody, due diligence red flags, institutional interest in cryptocurrencies, and the emergence of decentralized finance (DeFi).

Darrin Johnson is the first independent trader I’ve interviewed for this show and with that distinction he brings an entirely new perspective. After learning about how Darrin began his career as an independent trader, we get into the bulk of the conversation that circles around his process of shorting volatility in the S&P 500 complex, including options on futures, index options, VIX futures, and VIX ETPs. Darrin provides insights into how he plays certain tenors over others, why knowing when not to be short is the most important key to risk management, why the upside can be riskier than the downside, and thinking through managing a trade over its lifetime. Towards the end of the interview, Darrin paints a realistic picture of what it means to be an independent trader, in both the opportunities and constraints unique to his position. We finish with the advice Darrin would give to anyone serious about starting a career in independent trading. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Darrin Johnson.