The Investors First Podcast

Our guest today is Dr. David Kelly, the Chief Global Strategist and Head of the Global Market Insights Strategy Team for J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Prior to joining J.P. Morgan Asset Management, David served as Economic Advisor to Putnam Investments, and as Senior Strategist/Economist at SPP Investment Management, Primark Decision Economics, Lehman Brothers and DRI/McGraw-Hill. David is a CFA® charterholder. He also has a Ph.D. and M.A. in Economics from Michigan State University and a B.A. in Economics from University College Dublin in the Republic of Ireland. Dr. Kelly discusses the Guide to the Markets, how he thinks investors should be positioned going forward, what his return expectations are, and how COVID-19 will make long-lasting changes to the economy. Follow the CFA Society of Orlando on Twitter at @CFAOrlandoFL (0:38)  —  Colby Donovan and Steve Curley introduce the podcast (3:00 ) —Introduce Dr. Kelly (3:55) – Why he pursued the CFA designation (6:05) – Background on the Guide to the Markets (10:44) – Reason they started the Insights Podcast a few years ago (12:05) – What he’s learned from studying prior market crises (15:48) – Future return expectations (18:12) – What permanent changes will occur after COVID-19 is behind us (20:12) – Why he is pessimistic on the virus but optimistic on the economy (23:34) – Where to be positioned going forward (25:17) – Where to reach him: Daily Insights updated daily and his LinkedIn page (26:02) - What is the most egregious thing that you have seen in the investment management industry over the course of your career?

This episode features two guests. The first is Paul Smith, who was previously the President and CEO of the CFA Institute.  Paul has more than 25 years of relevant financial services leadership experience in many aspects of the investment management industry. The second is Chris Cannon, who is the Chief Investment Officer of FirsTrust, an RIA in Daytona Beach, Florida. He is also a board member and the Advocacy Chair for the CFA Society of Orlando. In this episode, Smith covers the current mood in Hong Kong (where he resides) and what he expects to happen when social distancing ceases there, what challenges COVID-19 give the CFA Institute and individual societies, why it is critically important today to avoid the illusion of precision, and what he thinks people should learn while staying at home. Follow the CFA Society of Orlando on Twitter at @CFAOrlandoFL (0:38)  -  Colby Donovan and Chris Cannon introduce the podcast (2:10) – Introduce Paul Smith (4:40) – Current mood in Hong Kong with regards to both social unrest and COVID-19 (8:10) – Challenges the CFA Institute and individual societies are facing while respecting social distancing (14:38) – Impact of COVID-19 on globalization (18:25) – Lessons to be taken from the COVID-19 crisis for individuals and countries (21:33) – The idea that financial analysts have created the illusion of precision (25:35) – Mistakes he’s seen people make in past crises (32:18) – What skills or information should people learn while at home? (35:10) - What is the most egregious ethics violation you have seen over the course of your career?

Our guest today is Peter Zeihan (@PeterZeihan), a geopolitical expert.  He launched his own firm, Zeihan on Geopolitics, in 2012 in order to specialize in customized executive briefings for his clients. Prior to going independent, Zeihan worked for 12 years with the geopolitical analysis firm Stratfor. He has authored multiple books, including his most recent, Disunited Nations. Zeihan discusses the thesis from his most recent book that the world is becoming more de-globalized, how the COVID-19 outbreak is accelerating that process, U.S. and Chinese relations moving forward, thoughts on the November election, relations between Russia and the Saudis, and the importance of the U.S. having the global currency.  Follow the CFA Society of Orlando on Twitter at @CFAOrlandoFL (0:38)  -  Colby Donovan and Steve Curley introduce the podcast (3:20) – Introduce Peter Zeihan and his book, Disunited Nations (6:00) – Where America and China will stand as the world becomes more de-globalized (8:04) – Discussion on his recent tweet about China ousting U.S. reporters (10:08) – Importance of monitoring COVID-19 data from South Korea (13:50) – America’s history of manic-depressive behavior (per his recent bulletin) (15:48) – Timeline for possible vaccine (18:18) – Impact of misinformation about COVID-19 being disseminated from China (per his tweet) (23:20) – Thoughts on the upcoming election (25:15) – Russian and Saudi relations with regarding oil (27:42) – America and the four other countries with a structural geographical advantage (31:52) – Most important countries the U.S. will have relationships going forward (33:40) – Future of manufacturing coming back to the U.S. and Mexico (36:50) – Importance of the U.S. having the global currency (39:00) – Where to learn more about Peter: twitter, book, website, and newsletter (39:40) – What is the most egregious thing that you have seen in the investment management industry over the course of your career?

Our guest today is Chen Zhao, Chief Global Strategist at Alpine Macro. Chen discusses the different factors causing the current economic and financial situation, why the Fed has done their job but it’s time for the government to step in and do theirs, where he’s seeing the best opportunities in the market, and how the coronavirus outbreak impacts the trade war with China. We hope you enjoy.  Follow the CFA Society of Orlando on Twitter at @CFAOrlandoFL 0:38 —  Colby Donovan and Steve Curley introduce the podcast 3:10 – Introduce Chen Zhao 5:00 – Why he believes we need a fiscal response 8:00 – What we can learn from China’s missed opportunity to clamp down early on 11:40 –Thoughts on the Fed’s recent actions and why the U.S. and Europe need a fiscal response 15:43 – Is it time to de-risk or re-risk? 17:20 – Why the government must provide loan guarantees for small and big businesses  20:30 – Where does he see the most opportunity in the market right now? 22:50 – Issues with using outside research 24:15 – Mistakes he’s seen people make during past bear markets 26:35 – Thoughts on the trade war 28:30 – What is the most egregious thing that you have seen in the investment management industry over the course of your career?

Our two guests today are Patrick O’Shaughnessy, CEO of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management and host of the Invest Like the Best podcast, and Steve Curley, Chief Investment Officer of WaterOak Advisors and President of the CFA Society of Orlando.  Patrick discusses the recent talk he gave at the 2020 Annual Forecast Dinner and why we all need to avoid becoming “yellow-blazers,” along with other mistakes he frequently sees investors make. We hope you enjoy.  Follow the CFA Society of Orlando on Twitter at @CFAOrlandoFL 0:38 —  Colby Donovan and Steve Curley introduce the podcast 3:03 — Introduce Patrick O’Shaughnessy  4:51 — Patrick tells his “Trail Magic” story 9:10 — General mistakes Patrick sees in the investment industry 11:24 — Advice for newly minted CFA charterholders  14:20 — Mistakes he made when he was younger trying to launch an internal hedge fund 16:30 — Entering the business during the 2008 financial crisis 17:55 — Why OSAM launched Canvas  22:32 — How to handle being pitched private investments 24:48 — How to create checks and balance system for when the market faces volatility [Gradual Improvements Go Unnoticed] 27:22 — What is the most egregious thing that you have seen in the investment management industry over the course of your career?