NAB Morning Call

Friday January 20th 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was a strong response to the lower-than-expected employment numbers yesterday, with 10 year bond yields falling more than 20 basis points. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this was an overreaction, because unemployment remains low and it won’t allay any of the RBA’s concerns about the tightness of the labour market, or encourage them to change their path on rate rises. No change was also the message from the ECB, reinforced by the minutes of the last meeting, and a speech at Davos by Christine Lagarde. There’s been little market reaction to the US debt ceiling. We’ve been here before and know that Republicans will use it as leverage against the BIden government, but all will be sorted by June. Today Japan’s CPI will reinforce the need for the BoJ to change policy direction at some point. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th January 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields pushed sharply lower overnight, despite weaker data that some could argue would support a pause in Fed rate hikes. But, as NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, central bank speakers are arguing that there will be no deviation from earlier guidance. That’s the view in the US, as well as in Europe, despite the Bloomberg report earlier in the week suggesting otherwise. In the UK inflation fell, but not by much and wage pressures continue. In Japan the BoJ is continuing to pursue its yield curve control policy and markets will lump it till they see the flavour of Kuroda’s replacement. Locally, Australian employment data is out today, with the focus on any glimmer of reduction in the tightness of the labour market. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 18th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABEuropean equities rose overnight with the ZEW survey of analysts suggesting a more positive outlook and reports that the ECB might slow down its path of hikes. That’s in contrast to the US where the NY Empire State Manufacturing index came in much lower than expected, reported company earnings were mixed and equities were struggling to make gains. NAB’s Skye Masters says whatever the news lately US 10 year treasury yields are sticking close to 3.5% and doesn’t seem to be breaking lower, so data that will influence the Fed’s decision-making is crucial right now. Meanwhile, the BoJ is the focus today – and nobody is quite sure what they’ll do. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuersday 17th January 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Bank of Japan meets tomorrow with a question mark over the action they’ll take, if any. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there will be some changes as the bank faces the potential risk of increasing inflation. The Bank of England will be eyeing up UK employment data today, with Andrew Bailey already warning that the tight labour market and continued strike action could delay the reduction in prices. But couldn’t higher rates from the bank add to public sector wage demands? A slew of activity data from China today, and a multi-year high for the Aussie today – it touched 70 us cents for the ifrst time since August 2021. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s a quiet start to the week, but markets in the US finished last week assuming that inflation has peaked and the Fed will go no further than a couple of 25 basis point hikes. The increasing expectation is that the US will weather the inflation curse without going into recession. That seems less likely for the UK, even with a surprise (but marginal) increase in monthly GDP for November. Today on the podcast NAB’s Taylor Nugent looks at the week ahead, including the possibility of a widening of the tolerance band in the Bank of Japan’s yield control curve, and Australian employment data later in the week – the ongoing tightness of the labour market will be very influential in future RBA rate decisions. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs expected, US inflation numbers have lowered, but Fed speakers have been quick to point out that there’s still more work to be done, with further hikes, even if 50 or 75 basis point rises are not on the cards. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks through the market response and expectations for where inflation and interest rates go from here. Meanwhile, a fall in China’s producer prices bodes well for helping inflation fall, whilst Australia has seen a big drop in job ads, likely to ease the influence of wage pressure on inflation. Markets will now look to the US earning season to answer the next big question, ‘what about growth?’ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 12th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation numbers are out today and the expectation is that they will fall. The markets, it seems, have already decided that inflation has peaked. Today on the podcast we ask, are we over the worst of it? In Australia hard times haven’t really started. NAB’s David de Garis talks about how we will weather the storm better than most, with the retail sector showing massive resilience (evidenced by yesterday’s data), tightness in the labour market likely to be moderated by increased immigration and the re-opening of China ready to ease supply chains. Nonetheless, NAB expects further rate rises from the RBA at the next two meetings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 11th January 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe year has started on a fairly optimistic tone, with US bond yields falling on expectations that the Fed might have to do less, leading to a fall in the US dollar. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains, the major beneficiary of all this has been the Aussie dollar, up 1.3% so far this year. Hopes of more growth from China, with the zero COVID policy abandoned and the population moving quickly to herd immunity. But global optimism should be tempered with a reality check – COVID is still a concern and the war rages on in Ukraine. The ultimate reality check will be US CPI later this week? Has it peaked and, if so, how much has it fallen by?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 21st December 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Bank of Japan has broadened the tolerance for its yield control curve target. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it surprised markets because Governor Kuroda had previously stated they wouldn’t be doing that. So, why the change and why has it had such an impact on global bond and currency markets? The Australian dollar fell against a US dollar which was itself falling, in part because of the RBA minutes yesterday. We look at what was discussed. And in New Zealand, business confidence hit an all-time low (well since the survey started in the eighties). Also, in this last edition of 2022 Ray explains why this was a bad year for risk parity strategies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 20th December 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere are only five sleeps to Christmas, but central banks are still cramming in what they can to position markets for the start of 2023. The ECB is ramping up its hawkish messaging, whilst the Fed continues to deny that they will start reversing rates next year, even as the housing market struggles. The RBA, meanwhile, is giving very little away, which is why there is more than the usual interest in the minutes of the last meeting out today. Plus, the Bank of Japan meets with a likely review of their monetary approach and China is promising targeted monetary policy next year.  NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks us through all of that in the penultimate Morning Call of the year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.