NAB Morning Call

Monday 6th February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US payrolls numbers on Friday showed strong jobs growth, which surprised markets pushing bond yields higher and weakening the US dollar. And NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the ISM Services number adding to the view that the Fed might have to do more to contain US inflation. Could we see two more 25 bp hikes form the Fed before they pause? And does thus change the stance of central banks globally, including the RBA tomorrow. The expectation is there will be a 25-basis point hike tomorrow and again in March, but could the terminal rate be higher given the prospect of global inflation proving harder to contain. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd February 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThree central banks have tried to sound hawkish this week, as they lift rates at levels already anticipated by the markets. But does the market believe them? That’s a question put to NAB’s Gavin Friend today, as US share prices rise and bond markets rally. It seems, despite central bankers (the Fed the ECB and BoE) continuing to say there’s more work to be done, there has been more focus on Jerome Powell’s line that “the disinflation process has started” and Christine Lagarde declaring “inflation risks in Europe are more balanced”. Where next depends on the data, of course, which will make tonight’s payroll numbers from the US important, along with the US ISM services index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 2nd February 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn the US the Fed has announced the expected 25 basis point rate hike, but this year’s prevalent hope of a soft landing seems to have diminished somewhat. The US ISM manufacturing number was lower than expected, whilst the ADP employment numbers showed less jobs, alongside more job openings in the latest JOLTs numbers. NAB’s David de Garis is asked whether that all points to an environment where inflation falls more slowly. Certainly, core inflation is holding up more than expected in Europe and data from Zealand yesterday showed that labour costs there are still high. So, central banks will think they still have much to do, which will be evidenced by 50bp rises by the ECB and Bank of England over the next 24 hours. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 1st February 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe are less than a day away from the next FOMC meeting, with the strong expectation that rates will rise in the US by 25 basis points. But in light of recent data suggesting inflation could be slowing, including last night’s wage price index, NAB’s Skye Masters says there’s increasing speculation that the Fed will pause after this meeting. Certainly the mood in markets today is positive, with increased hopes that the global economy will see a soft landing. That’s what was suggested in the latest IMF forecasts, with the notable exception of the UK. Strong earnings results and outlooks have also added to the mood. And there’s a lot more to come this week. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 31st January 2022NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABSpain’s inflation numbers provided an unpleasant surprise – core inflation has risen to 7.5%. Meanwhile Germany saw GDP fall in Q4 (QonQ). If these numbers are mirrored across Europe the cocktail of rising inflation and falling output is a challenging one for the ECB. NAB’s Taylor Nugent is asked if we should start talking about stagflation again. Also today we get to see the size of China’s post-lockdown bounce back, the impact of early Christmas shopping on Australia’s December retail numbers and, importantly, ahead of the FOMC, the wage price index for the US. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 30th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt's a busy week ahead for central banks, with the Fed, BoE and ECB all meeting to push their rates higher. To add to the potential volatility there’s a swag of high profile corporate earnings results in the US too. But tech stocks have been pushing higher and higher so far this month, presumably o the assumption that central banks will ease off on rates soon as economic indicators start to soften. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says age inflation numbers I the US will be of particular importance this week, as service inflation is taking more time to slow than goods inflation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 27th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA strong GDP read from the US, together with with falling prices, provided grounds for optimism in markets overnight, particularly equities that were buoyed also by a strong earnings result from Tesla. But NAB’s David de Garis says it’s not all good news. Investment in equipment was down and durable goods orders, if you take out a splurge in aircraft orders, fell in the month. And the weekly job numbers suggest the labour market remains as tight as ever. Meanwhile, what must the RBA be thinking after Wednesday’s Australian inflation number, coming in much higher than expected? Perhaps today’s producer prices will show that things are moving faster in the right direction. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 25th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS shares have been shaky overnight, in the runup to earnings results and on the back of mixed economic data. JB Were’s Sally Auld discusses the latest PMI data, which again shows a recession risk for the US, more hope for Europe and a dismal outlook for the UK. The NAB Business Syurvey yesterday showed that business pessimism is not reflected by a fall in business conditions, including profitability. But there was also a sign that inflation might have peaked – something that could be confirmed in Australia’s CPI numbers out today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 24th January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was lighter trade overnight, with little in the way of news and China on holiday. The Aussie dollar was the standout performer in currencies, with NAB’s David de Garis suggesting this reflects the optimistic tone, reflected in US equities, with a substantial rise in the NASDAQ. Today the focus is on PMIs, which will give a clear indication of the expected recovery in Europe versus the US. In Australia the NAB Business Survey this morning will be watched to see whether the falling business confidence last time has translated into a drop in business conditions. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 23rd January 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs we enter the Year of the Rabbit the big question is, how big will the bounce back be in China? Could it push commodity prices higher and delay the slowdown in global inflation, as suggested by EBC’S Christine Lagarde on Friday? As NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, this is a big week for inflation data, including the US PCE deflator and CPI numbers for Australia and New Zealand. Last week’s soft employment numbers have already lefty many suggesting the RBA will be more dovish in its approach, with a significant drop in bond yields. So, what impact will the latest inflation numbers have this week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.