NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 28th February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJapan’s inflation is down, but not quite as much as expected. That’s raised expectation from some that the BoJ will use this as a reason to lift rates. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether they need to. Japanese exports seem to be benefiting from a lower Yen right now. Meanwhile US equities have plateaued. Warren Buffet described it as a casino, suggesting investors focused on stocks that it would be hard to imagine doing without. Like coca cola. Vested interest perhaps? Today the focus is on what the RBNZ does. NAB and BNZ are not expecting a rate rise, but the language at the press conference should be interesting. Inflation is proving troublesome. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 27th February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTomorrow is looking a lot more interesting than today, with Australian CPI and the RBNZ. Overnight though, we had more talk from the ECB, including a curious comment from the Bank of Greece Governor, seemingly reinforcing the suggestion that June is the month for cutting. Today we see CPI numbers for Japan, but it’s unlikely to influence the timing of any moves by the BoJ, should they ever move. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through all of that, plus the outcome of bond auctions in the US overnight, with yields pushing a little higher. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCentral bankers are being very elusive when it comes to the timeframe for cutting rates. The Fed’s John Williams said on Friday that he believes rates will come down this year, even though markets are expecting a move in June. The ECB’s Christine Lagarde says she wants more persistent evidence that inflationary pressures have dissipated, even though the German economy shank by 0.2 percent last year. And there’s the outside chance that he RBNZ will lift rates this week, although that seems unlikely. Meanwhile Australian CPI and retail sales this week will be waited for with anticipation by the RBA. So, when it comes to rate cuts, it won’t happen overnight, but it will happen. Trivia question: who said that? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd February 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The US has been enjoying healthy share prices and a market preparing for lower interest rates, with the much-vaunted soft landing. But how much of this good will could disappear if Donald Trump returns to the White House next year? The FT’s Katie Martin says markets haven’t been preparing much just yet because, well, it may not happen. But there’s also the question of how big the gap is between what Trump says he’ll do and what eventuates. Katie suggests corporate America will advise him of the consequences if he were to push ahead with a 55% tariff on all Chinese imports. We can assume he will be far less supportive of green initiatives. We also know he tends to measure economic success by share market performance. The unknown element is his approach to foreign policy. That might mean it'll be time to derisk. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe caution we’ve been seeing in the US share market has dissolved completely since the release of NVIDIA earnings yesterday. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the euphoria has even spread as far as Japan. But is too much good news taken by the Fed as another reason to delay rate cuts? You could also question whether the ECB will delay longer than June. The minutes of their last meeting note the risk of cutting too early if greater than the risk of a delay. Today the diary is light, with retail sales for New Zealand the focus. A weak result would surely remove the chance of a hike by the RBNZ next week? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 22nd February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe FOMC minutes this morning didn’t provide many surprises, except warning that inflation could pick up and more evidence was needed. All reasons to delay cuts until, possibly June. Meanwhile, as NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, the ECB has almost committed verbally to a June cut. Now we’re seeing louder voices inside the BoE warning that delaying cuts will have harmful impacts on the economy, which has the potential to also move to a June cut. No such luck with the RBA though. Yesterday’s wage inflation data, even though it came in almost as expected, it’s still too high for the policy makers to feel comfortable.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 21st February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCanada’s latest inflation rate came in lower than expected overnight, prompting the inevitable speculation about an earlier cut from the Bank of Canada. April perhaps? Phil asks NAB’s Skye Masters whether this means they’ll be the first major central bank to move lower, as others seem to be pushing expectations back a little. Although UK gilt yields dropped after the BoE’s Andrw Bailey said to a government hearing that market expectations for a rate cut this year are not unreasonable. Today Australia’s wage rice index is released. NAB expects it to come in line with RBA forecasts, but we’ll see. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tueday 20th February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been quieter than quiet the last 24 hours. The US has been off for Presidents Day, and elsewhere only glacial movements in bonds and currencies. Why? Well, as Phil discusses with NAB’s Ken Crompton, its because there’s not much in the way of data releases to move markets along, those that are open. On eof the strongest currencies was the New Zealand dollar, that saw a slightly stronger than expected PSI read yesterday. Ahead we have the RBA minutes and Canada’s CPI to look forward to. Beyond that, we’re clutching at straws a bit! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday19th February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere was some dismissing of the US CPI numbers last week as not being the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. But the producer prices on Friday, which do input into the Fed’s preferred Core PCE number, also showed prices ticking higher in January. Evidence of the bumpy path that the Fed’s Michael Barr was talking about on Thursday, perhaps? But NAB’s Taylor Nugent says, as with the CPI numbers, seasonally adjusting January’s numbers is notoriously difficult. In any case, we won’t see further market reaction in the US today because its Presidents Day holiday. So, a quiet start to a week which includes the latest flash PMIs and Australia’s wage price index. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 16th February 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In the consumer space there are only really two ways tech firms make money. They either sell stuff – usually subscriptions – or they offer free content supported by advertising. Advertising is as old as the hills so you might be mistaken for thinking that its days are numbered. But Debra Aho Williamson, an independent tech analyst from Seattle, says online will continue to grow its share of an expanding global advertising market, and AI will help improve the efficacy of the budget of advertisers. But advertising isn’t the only way forward and each of the major tech firms has their own approach. Listen in to the discussion to help gather your own thoughts on who is in the strongest position right now.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.