NAB Morning Call

Monday 11th March 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS payrolls data was initially a surprise on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was an initial algo-driven market response, before the human s stepped in on realising that substantial downward revisions in the previous two months meant jobs data was weaker than anticipated. Hence, expectations for a June cut haven’t really shifted. Canada’s employment data, which was higher, passed by with little fanfare. China’s inflation numbers were a surprise over the weekend, coming in at the highest month on month level in a year. Japan’s GDP read is expected to be revised higher today, but the biggest influence on the BoJ strategy will come later this week with the early results of spring wage negotiations. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 18th March 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.You would be right in assuming that equality for women is less prevalent in Japan than it is in Australia. There are 200 listed companies on the Nikkei who don’t have a single female board member. But things are changing. Melanie Brock is an Australian who has lived in Tokyo for 25 years, helping businesses invest and partner in Japan. She serves on four boards, having just been appointed to Asahi Group Holdings. Today she talks through the challenges women face, but also why the economy depends on the career advancement of women. And there’s at least one lesson Australian businesses can learn from Japan about how to advance diversity in the workforce. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 8tth March 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Gavin Friend says you only need to look at the falls we’ve been experiencing in yields lately to recognise that there’s a renewed acceptance that rates will be cut, probably by the middle of the year, in the US and Europe. At the ECB meeting Christine Lagarde talked about good progress being made on bringing down inflation, as they released a downgraded inflation forecast. In front of the sente Banking Committee in the US Jerome Powell talked about not being far from having the confidence to cut rates. That’s why all eyes are back on June. Of course, a surprise result in non-farm payrolls tonight could easily change all that. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 7tth March 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Aussie dollar has led the major sin currency gains today. NAB’s Skye Masters says it follows a fall n the US dollar, with the DXY at its lowest level in over a month. The rise in the Aussie happened despite a lacklustre GDP report for Australia, although the results won’t change the dial on RBA timings. The BoC kept rates on hold and gave no timing on when cuts will happen. The message everywhere – including in Powell’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee – is that more reassurance is need that inflation is heading sustainably lower. That’ll almost certainly be the message delivered at the press conference after the ECB meeting early tomorrow morning (Australia time). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 6tth March 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US ISM services index showed a larger than expected slowdown. As NAB’s ray Attrill describes, that’s driven interest in bonds, helped by another fall in US equities, driven by falls in tech stocks. Here’s also been a rise in Bitcoin and gold, both hitting record highs. Interestingly, the services PMIs for Europe were generally a little better than expected. So does any of this change the timeline for anticipated cuts by the Fed and ECB? Today, Australia’s Q4 GDP is the big number to watch, along with the US job openings numbers. And get the popcorn ready for the results from Super Tuesday, but I think we know who wins. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tursday 4th March 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS shares have taken a rest for now. Perhaps a $1.8 billion fine on Apple over music streaming has reminded big tech investor that regulators have power. Today, NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the impact of yesterday’s GDP partials for Australia, much of it driven by mining, with lower inventories and higher corporate profits. The Peoples Congress is underway in China today, with reports suggesting Xi Jinping will confirm that the growth target for 2024 remains at 5 percent. The US releases its PMI Services number today, but the market is really hanging out for Friday’s non-farm payrolls. It’s Super Tuesday in the US today, but we already know who is going to win, for each side of politics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 4th March 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US Manufacturing ISM was weaker than expected don Friday, with new orders, production and employment all contracting. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether this accounts for a fall in front end yields on Friday and whether its impacted expectations for the timing of the first Fed rate cut. In Europe the latest CPI numbers show inflation is coming down more slowly than expected, ahead of the ECB meeting this week. Could this push back the timing for cuts? It’s a quiet start to a busy week – a week that includes US non-farm payrolls and Services ISM, Australia’s GDP and a House testimony for Jerome Powell. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 1st March 2024Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Kate Griffiths from the Grattan Institute warns that the recent budget surplus is hiding the fact that the long-term balance between Australia’s tax intake and the expectations for government spending don’t stack up. As the population ages and the ratio of those in work reduces, the tax base will narrow whilst demand for aged services will expand. Kate argues the case for a roader tax system, less reliant on income tax as the main source of government revenue. Phil asks hat tax reform should set out to address. Is it just about increasing revenue, or is wealth redistribution just as important? And what about the tax efficiency. How many tax loopholes need to disappear. Then there’s taxes with unintended detrimental consequences. There’s a lot to consider. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 1st March 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets were relieved that the US PCE deflators came in in-line with expectations. But, as JBWere’s Sally Auld points out, the six-month annualised rate is ticking up a little, hence the desire by th Fed to see more data before committing to rate cuts. Ion a busy episode today we look at European inflation, Australian retail sales, house prices, Canada’s GDP and words from one BoJ governor suggesting the time is right to lift rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 29th February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMarkets responded sharply to the RBNZ hold decision yesterday, even though it was largely expected. The tone from the press conference that followed left most assuming there would be no more hikes, even if it’ll take a while for rates to come down. NaAB's Ken Crompton talks through how the markets reacted. He also suggests an above-consensus bounce back in Australian retail numbers today. US core PCE – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – is also expected to lift a little, whilst US GDP was revised down ever so slightly. And happy leap day!  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.