This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the looming threat of a new nuclear arms race. He explores the complexities that modern geopolitical tensions, particularly with Russia and China, bring to nuclear deterrence. Panda highlights the risks tied to the potential expiration of the New START Treaty in 2026 and the challenges of misperceptions in nuclear conflicts. The conversation also touches on the paradox of Mutually Assured Destruction and the evolving nature of military strategies involving nuclear options.

Marcel Dirsus, an expert on tyranny and author of "How Tyrants Fall," dives deep into the psyche of dictators. He discusses the 'dictator's dilemma' where mistrust leads to poor decisions, often dooming their regimes. The unintended effects of sanctions are explored, showing how they can sometimes bolster tyrants. Dirsus also shares innovative strategies for citizens to creatively resist oppression. Ultimately, he reveals how the illusion of power can crumble and the cycles of tyranny inevitably lead to decline.

Robert Trager, co-director of the Oxford Martin AI Governance Initiative, and Shannon Vallor, Baillie Gifford Professor of Ethics at the University of Edinburgh, dive into the complex world of artificial intelligence. They explore its dual nature—offering unprecedented opportunities while posing significant risks. Key discussions include the ethical implications of AI in military applications, the potential for manipulation in democratic processes, and the urgent need for effective governance to balance innovation with accountability.

Oz Katerji, a knowledgeable commentator on Hezbollah, delves into the escalating tensions between Israel and the paramilitary group. He analyzes the recent missile exchanges and discusses the potential for broader conflict in the region. Katerji examines the complex influence of Hezbollah in Lebanon and its relationship with Iran, highlighting the strategic dynamics that could affect future hostilities. The conversation also touches on the fragile situation in Gaza, emphasizing the urgent need for diplomatic solutions to avert catastrophic outcomes.

Madeleine Cuff, an environment reporter for New Scientist, and Emma Beals, a contributor on critical security issues, dive into the alarming rise in ocean temperatures and their far-reaching implications. They discuss how warmer seas threaten military operations, possibly creating new conflict zones and destabilizing fragile states. The duo also highlights the role of climate change as a 'threat multiplier' and the urgent need for international cooperation to tackle these emerging security challenges. It's a wake-up call for global awareness!

Oz Kat interviews Maria Avdeeva, a security expert and Research Director at the European Expert Association, about Ukraine's bold Kursk offensive. They delve into the surprising territorial gains and the shift from a defensive stance to an aggressive strategy. The discussion reveals the implications for both Ukrainian and Russian forces and explores the importance of military maneuvers in the context of negotiations. Avdeeva highlights the evolving dynamics between Ukraine and its Western allies amidst the conflict.

Gavin Esler, a commentator and expert on geopolitical issues, delves into the intricacies of Russia's ability to navigate international sanctions with guests Maria Shagina and Ian Garner. They explore how Putin circumvents sanctions through strategic alliances, particularly with nations like China, Iran, and North Korea. The discussion reveals the impact of these dynamics on Europe's stability and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Furthermore, they examine the challenges in enforcing sanctions and the need for stronger regulatory frameworks to counter evasion tactics.

Gavin Esler chats with Samir Puri, a former UK diplomat and author of 'Westlessness,' and Dan Drezner, a Tufts University professor specializing in international politics. They dive into the fading dominance of the West, exploring how powers like China, India, and Brazil are reshaping global dynamics. The discussion covers the complexities of East-West relations, the rise of authoritarianism, and the implications for democracy. They also analyze the shifting trade dynamics between major players, including the growing role of emerging economies.

Guest Anne Applebaum discusses the emerging Dictators’ Cartel uniting autocrats worldwide, driven by wealth and power. They manipulate Western financial institutions for control, pose a threat to democracy. Strategies to combat authoritarian regimes and far-right movements are explored, highlighting the need for vigilance.

The US is currently suffering a crisis in democracy, and its effects are far-reaching. But how does it relate to the global rise in authoritarianism and conflict? In the wake of compounding concerns created by the recent Supreme Court immunity decision and increasing calls for Joe Biden to step down from the Presidential nomination due to his age, This Is Not A Drill assesses the stakes at play for global security. America is in turmoil after the assassination attempt against Donald Trump. But worrying developments – from a Supreme Court decision that conceivably puts the US President above the law, to the Democrats’ paralysis in the face of Biden’s declining powers – point to a deeper crisis. If America can’t function as a democracy, where does that leave the peace and stability of the world? Emma Beals speaks to former U.S. Director of Policy Planning Richard Haass and former Foreign Policy Advisor to Bernie Sanders Matt Duss to explore whether the greatest threat to American democracy is no longer Donald Trump, but comes from within the Democratic Party itself. Incogni keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – Go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan.Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.  Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assistant produced by Eliza Davis Beard. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. www.podmasters.co.uk  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices