Behind the Markets Podcast

Jeremy, Jeremy and Nir discuss their market theories for the upcoming week and where the market is headed. Nir defends the Fed and gives his opinion on their choices. He tells us about AI’s potential and current impacts on the economy. Nir gives us his hypothesis on how AI will affect the market in the upcoming year after last year's market readjustment. He discusses the purchase of tips in an inflated market. He dives into his view on high yield bonds, foreign investments and the risk/reward of current geopolitics. Guest: Nir Kaissar, Chartered Financial Analyst, founded Unison in 2005. Unison manages diversified portfolios for institutions and individuals using a data-driven, systematic approach to asset allocation. Nir is also a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, writing about markets, investing, economics and public policy. Learn more at: https://unisonadvisors.com/?page_id=61 Connect on Twitter: @nirkaissar

Show from 6/2/23 Jeremy, Chris, and Eric dive into the current real estate market. Eric discusses how his firm is moving into the single family home rental market. He talks about the stall in the office rental market as people continue to work from home. They get into detail on retail real estate, the death of regional malls, and the rise of open-air stores. Chris asks about private real estate and what investors should be concerned about moving into the future. Eric talks in depth about the growth of tech real estate, the growing need for data center space, and the energy required for AI data chip creation. Guest: Eric Rothman serves as Portfolio Manager for CenterSquare Investment Management’s real estate securities group. He is responsible for market research, sector allocations, research, and financial modeling across the U.S. real estate securities universe. He also manages a REIT preferred stock separate account mandate. He has over 25 years of REIT and real estate investment experience. Prior to joining CenterSquare, he spent more than six years as a sell-side REIT analyst at Wachovia Securities and three years as an analyst at AEW Capital Management. He is a CFA charterholder and member of the CFA Institute. Learn more at: https://www.centersquare.com/investment-team Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/eric-rothman-cfa-02561710?original_referer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti

Show from 5/26/23 Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Jeremy Siegel are joined by Samuel Rines as they discuss today's market and economy. Sam dives into why the Feds are in a grackle state between hawkish and dovish maneuvers, explaining how price over volume is sticking around due to inflation and the reluctance for consumers' to push back. They go into depth on whether the summer will flow into a recession, and the importance of Middle America's contributions to driving the economy, as well as the excitement of big tech and its effect on the current market. Jeremy and Sam also touch on their upcoming collaboration. Sam tells us a bit more about his firm Corbu and its specializations as well as his view on the global market, oil, and the bond market. Guest: Samuel Rines is the Managing Director of CORBU. Samuel is a global macro expert focused on the investment implications of politics and policy. His PolyMacro research and model portfolios are widely followed by both large family offices and institutional investors. Prior to joining CORBU, Samuel was the Chief Economist and Investment Strategist at Avalon Advisors, Before joining Avalon, Samuel was the portfolio manager at Chilton Capital Management, where he launched the Chilton ESG Equity Strategy and a long/short technology portfolio. Samuel started his career as the cross-asset analyst for a small hedge fund. He is the author of the book “After Normal: Making Sense of the Global Economy”. Follow him on Twitter: @SamuelRines

Show from 5/19/23 Join your hosts and Guy LeBas as they delve into the markets this week. Prof. Siegel purports there will be a debt deal, prompting short-covering in the market. Jobless claims showed a suspicious jump attributed to fraud in one state. The upcoming labor market report will be crucial for the Fed's decision in June, with dissent among members possible, depending on its findings. Jeremy Schwartz and Guy LeBas discuss financial markets, focusing on inflation, Treasury yields, and corporate credit. Deposit outflows from banks have slowed, especially in larger regional banks with diverse deposits. The banking sector's valuation outlook is positive, with many banks expected to recover from bond portfolio losses. Listen in to learn more about this Spring’s important macro trends! Guest: Guy LeBas is Janney’s Chief Fixed Income Strategist as well as Director of Custom Fixed Income Solutions for Janney Capital Management. As Strategist, he is responsible for providing direction to the Firm’s clients on the macroeconomic, interest rate, and bond market investing climate. Guy authors bond market periodicals, which provide relative value recommendations across the fixed income spectrum. With Janney Capital Management, Guy is responsible for overseeing the Firm’s discretionary managed bond portfolios, which take a client-tailored approach to generating consistent income across interest rate environments. Learn more at: https://www.janney.com/meet-janney/people/guy-lebas Follow Guy on Twitter: @lebas_janney

Show from 5/12/23 Join Jeremy Schwartz, Prof. Siegel, and Chris Gannatti as they talk about Mark Mills’s path through academia and his career in tech and energy. Mark discusses how macro-level energy logistics can have global influence on productivity and economies. The show goes in depth on the role of new technology in improving the energy sector, and how energy can also be optimized for powering new technology. Mark talks about how far away a break-even nuclear fusion energy reactor truly is. They also touch on how the consumption of energy around the world is increasing as more technology is developed and adopted globally, and the significance of cloud computing in the energy space. Guest: Mark Mills is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a faculty fellow at Northwestern University’s McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science. He is also a strategic partner with Montrose Lane (an energy-tech venture fund). Previously, Mills cofounded Digital Power Capital, a boutique venture fund, and was chairman and CTO of ICx Technologies, helping take it public in 2007. Mills is author of the book The Cloud Revolution: How the Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020s, and host of the new podcast The Last Optimist. He is also author of Digital Cathedrals, and Work in the Age of Robots. Mills earlier coauthored The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy. Learn more at https://manhattan.institute/person/mark-p-mills Follow Bilal on Twitter: @MarkPMills Co-host Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti

Show from 5/5/23 Join Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Siegel as they discuss the current state of the labor market; the concerning trend of rising unemployment claims and a cooling labor landscape. Bilal Hafeez shares his contrasting thoughts on the actions the Fed should take. The discussion also touches on the superior positioning of European banks compared to US banks. Bilal talks about booming investments in A.I. and how big tech companies will benefit from this trend. Listen now to gain insights into inflation, the Fed's response, and the geopolitical tensions surrounding American and Chinese A.I. Guest: Bilal Hafeez is the Founder and CEO of Macro Hive. He was the Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura between 2016 and 2019 and held various senior roles at Deutsche Bank between 2002 and 2015 including Head of Multi-Asset Research, Advisor to the CEO, Head of Asia Research in Singapore, and Global Head of Foreign Exchange Research. Bilal started his career at JP Morgan in 1998 and was rated the #1 market strategist by Euromoney and Institutional Investor between 2004 and 2013. He pioneered FX investment and smart beta benchmarks and was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School. He studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge, and has seven cats, four chickens, a beehive, and one dog. Learn more at https://macrohive.com/macro-hive-team/ Follow Bilal on Twitter: @bilalhafeez123

Join Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Siegel as they dive deep into fixed income and recent economic reports. Some other key topics include the S&P 500 index, stabilization in the housing market, and the potential for a cumulative effect of policy to stimulate the market. Banks are still strained but we’re not feeling the macroeconomic domino effect (yet). Returning guest Dave Goodson gives his views on fixed income market opportunities. Dave shares his framework for investing in and studying fixed income and the securitized market, and how they can greatly benefit your portfolio. He thinks the 60/40 portfolio might be making a comeback, and he gives other great portfolio construction tips. Guest: Dave Goodson is a managing director, head of securitized fixed income and a senior portfolio manager for non-agency and agency mortgage-backed securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities strategies at Voya Investment Management. Prior to joining Voya, he was a principal at an independent investment bank focused on asset-backed commercial paper transactions. Previously, Dave began his career as a vice president in Wachovia Securities’ asset-backed finance group, marketing and executing securitizations for the bank’s corporate clients. He earned a BS in management from the Georgia Institute of Technology Learn more at institutional.voya.com/investment-ca…itized-credit Follow Voya on Twitter: @VoyaInvestments

Show from 4/21/23 Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Siegel speak on the ever-changing stats coming out of the Fed. Much is evolving as the data begin to reflect the macro highlights of Q1 2023. Tesla’s price war and P&G’s earnings are in the headlines. Expert economist Vincent Reinhart comes on the show to discuss the latest on housing and labor markets, global strain on banks, and every other big swing in the macroeconomy. He discusses the effect of major generational shocks like COVID and the Ukraine-Russia conflict on inflation, which he has researched at length. Check out the episode to learn more about the most important aspects of today’s geopolitics and economics! Guest: Vincent Reinhart is Chief Economist and Macro Strategist at Mellon Investments. In this role, he is responsible for developing views on the global economy and making relative value recommendations across global bond markets, currencies and sectors. Previously, Vincent served as the Chief US Economist and a managing director at Morgan Stanley. For the prior four years, he was a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). Vincent also worked in several roles at the Federal Reserve over 24 years, including Director of the Division of Monetary Affairs and Secretary and Economist of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). His academic publications primarily concern the conduct of policy and issues related to the monetary transmission mechanism as well as an analysis of alternative auction techniques and Treasury debt management. After an undergraduate training at Fordham University, he received graduate degrees in economics at Columbia University. Learn more at https://www.mellon.com/about-us/our-people/vincent-reinhart.html Follow Mellon on Twitter: @melloninvests

Show from 4/14/23 Chris Gannatti joins Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Siegel this week as they speak to esteemed guest Nathaniel “Nat” Bullard. Despite the ever-present strain of inflation, it’s apparent the economy is not falling apart just yet. Nat shares his vast knowledge of ESG and carbon reduction as it affects macroeconomic pressures. You don’t want to miss out on his take on today’s gas prices. Tune in to get up to speed on the environment, economy, and polarizing politics! Guest: Nat Bullard writes: I have spent nearly two decades analyzing, writing about, presenting on, and strategizing for deep decarbonization of the global economy. I spent 15 years with BloombergNEF, joining prior to New Energy Finance's acquisition by Bloomberg in 2009. There, I covered US markets, solar, and global executive strategy, concluding my time as the group's Chief Content Officer. While at BloombergNEF I began my weekly writing as well, which later moved to Bloomberg Opinion and now, Bloomberg Green. Today, my Bloomberg Green column reaches 250,000 subscribers a week. I maintain a senior contributor role for BloombergNEF, and I also have had a long-term engagement with early-stage climate tech venture capital firm Voyager Ventures. I am a frequent keynote speaker and board presenter on deep decarbonization technology, policy, markets, and strategy in an independent capacity. Follow him on Twitter: @NatBullard Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti

Show from 4/7/23 Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Siegel review some weak and unfortunate macro-level data from the markets this past week. Even the labor force is softening again, despite the promise that Q1 2023 brought. Plus, the fallout from bank runs hasn’t been fully realized in the data yet. Jonathan Ward joins the conversation to break down the current state of US-China relations. He shares his unique perspective on macroeconomics, informed by his geopolitical expertise. Guest: Dr. Jonathan D. T. Ward has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. Dr. Ward is author of The Decisive Decade, available where books are sold April 29th. Learn more at https://jonathandtward.com/ Buy/pre-order his book: https://www.amazon.com/Decisive-Decade-American-Strategy-Triumph/dp/1635768454 Follow him on Twitter: @jonathandtward