Behind the Markets Podcast

Show from 3/31/23 Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Siegel kick off the episode with a positive outlook on US macro trends. Inflationary pressures are leveling off comfortably, at least for the past week. The SVB fallout appears to be relatively isolated, and widespread bank runs no longer seem imminent. David Zervos weighs in on the same topics, adding his renowned macro market expertise. Market direction is still unclear in light of the Fed’s latest moves. Tune in to hear our best guess on the future of your money! Guest: David Zervos is currently Chief Market Strategist for Jefferies LLC and Head of the Global Macro Division of Leucadia Asset Management, LLC. David joined Jefferies in 2010 after spending 2009 as a visiting advisor at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C. Prior to visiting the Federal Reserve, he held a variety of research, sales and trading positions in the private sector, most recently managing global macro portfolios for Brevan Howard and UBS O'Connor. He began his career as an economist at the Federal Reserve Board in the early 1990's. He received a B.Sc. from Washington University, and an M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from the University of Rochester. Learn more at https://jefferiesmacrostrategy.com/about-david/ Follow him on Twitter: @jefmacrostat

Show from 3/24/23 Prof. Siegel takes a break from his vacation to call in and discuss this week’s big market news. The spotlight is on some disturbing projections from the Fed surrounding jobs and wages, and future rate cuts. Strain on institutions around the world brings into question the potential for recession. Wim Schoutens joins from Belgium to share his perspective based on his foremost expertise in bond markets. His proximity to Switzerland and familiarity with Co/Cos makes him a great resource for explaining what went down with Credit Suisse and the reaction by the global market. Then, Wharton alumnus Catherine LeGraw comes on to give GMO’s views on stocks, bonds, and markets at large. Her high-level macro lens rounds out the conversation and encapsulates the rest of the economy. Join Jeremy Schwartz et al. to learn more! Guests: Wim Schoutens is professor in financial engineering at the University of Leuven, Belgium. He has extensive practical experience of model implementation and validation. He is well known for his consulting work to the banking industry and national and supra-national institutions. He is an independent expert advisor to the European Commission, has worked for the IMF and is the author of several books on quantitative finance. Wim is also a founding partner of RiskConcile, a fintech company with roots within the University of Leuven. Learn more at https://schoutens.eu/ Catherine LeGraw is a Wharton graduate and a former student of Prof. Siegel. She is a member of GMO’s Asset Allocation team and a partner of the firm. Prior to joining GMO in 2013, she worked as a director at BlackRock. Previously, Ms. LeGraw was an analyst at Bear, Stearns & Co. She received her BA and her BS in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania. She is a CFA charterholder. Learn more at: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/?author=72ba2300-f9c4-47c0-8d9c-4c063da99017

Show from 3/17/23 Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Jeremy Siegel tackle the banking crisis, continuing inflation, and market sentiment as volatility dominates the narrative. Bitcoin and crypto are seeing more action now that trust in TradFi systems is decreasing. Trevor Greetham comes on from London UK to share his views on the underinsured, illiquid assets in the US spilling out into the rest of the world. He discusses some lesser-mentioned macro trends that factor into global inflation cycles. Trevor daws on his experience in allocation for major life insurance and pension portfolios. Guest: Trevor Greetham is a portfolio manager at Royal London Asset Management. Prior to joining Royal London in 2015, Trevor was asset allocation director for Fidelity Worldwide Investment, where he was responsible for implementing tactical investment decisions across a wide range of institutional and retail funds including the Fidelity Multi Asset Strategic Fund. Learn more at https://adviser.royallondon.com/contacts/trevor-greetham/ Follow him on Twitter: @TrevorGreetham

Show from 3/10/23 Chris Gannatti fills in for Jeremy Schwartz this week and joins Prof. Jeremy Siegel to talk big swings in macroeconomic trends. Crypto exchanges and regional banks are still facing struggles. Inflation rages on and turmoil continues in the labor economy. Guest Blake Heimann shares his thoughts on AI, including ChatGPT’s recent leaps, and touches on the broad economic and societal implications of AI. An interesting and fun conversation despite some potentially dystopian topics! Guest: Blake Heimann is a Research Analyst at WisdomTree. He’s an insatiably curious polymath with a passion for quantitative financial modeling, automated trading, and portfolio management. He is keen on novel approaches leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning in investment management. Blake’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/blakeheimann Chris Gannatti is Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow him on Twitter: @CGannatti

Show from 3/3/23 Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Jeremy Siegel are optimistic in light of the restabilization of markets and GDP. As the Fed continues to tighten, everything is looking more steady in the US economy. Warren Mosler joins the show today, and shares his unique economic theories and intriguing ideas about financial structures. He argues controversially that higher interest rates have stimulated the economy to resist recession, not relented it. Listen in for more of Mosler’s surprising insights. Guest: Warren Mosler is an American economist and theorist, and one of the leading voices in the field of Modern Monetary Theory. An entrepreneur and financial professional, Warren Mosler has spent the past 40 years gaining an insider’s knowledge of monetary operations. He co-founded AVM, a broker/dealer providing advanced financial services to large institutional accounts and the Illinois Income Investors (III) family of investment funds in 1982. He holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of Connecticut and remains deeply involved in the academic community. He has given presentations at conferences around the world and published numerous articles in economic journals, newspapers, and periodicals. Mosler is also the author of The Seven Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy. He is credited with creating Mosler’s law that states “there is no financial crisis so deep that a sufficiently large fiscal adjustment cannot correct it.” For more information, visit his website: https://warrenmosler.com/ Follow him on Twitter: @wbmosler

Show from 2/24/23 Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Jeremy Siegel discuss the year-over-year indices and expectations that are affecting pessimism in market perceptions across the board. Mortgage rates and housing prices continue to fluctuate and cause grief for homeowners. Fallout from the COVID pandemic rages on with real inflationary and political consequences. Greg Valliere joins the show to expand on the geopolitical and economic factors that are influencing decision-makers and consumers in the U.S. Volatility and drastic regulatory measures may be on the horizon. Guest: Greg Valliere is the Chief U.S. Policy Strategist at AGF Investments. He joined AGF in February 2019 as Chief U.S. Policy Strategist. In this role, he is responsible for providing insight into how U.S. politics are shaping global markets. He brings a unique perspective to AGF with more than four decades of experience analyzing policy and politics. He provides regular commentary and insight into Washington for financial services and investment management clients globally, including specialized coverage of the Federal Reserve, economic policy, and politics. Greg has more than 40 years of experience following Washington issues for institutional and retail investors. For more information, visit the AGF website: https://perspectives.agf.com/author/greg-valliere/ Follow him on Twitter: @Greg_Valliere

Show from 2/17/23 Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Jeremy Siegel dive deep into the effects of a resurging market on wages and costs for Americans. As inflation and labor strain continue, CPI becomes an important consideration for the Fed and for the population at large. Todd Thompson gives his views on the current state of bonds, stocks, mortgage spreads, and long-term financial commitments. He also details how he’s thinking about portfolio construction in 2023 more broadly. Listen in to gain insight from Todd’s long career as a fixed income expert. Guest: Todd Thompson is a managing director and portfolio manager and leads the fixed income credit research team at Reams Asset Management. He is a co-portfolio manager of the Carillon Reams Bond Funds. Todd has over 25 years of experience as a fixed income portfolio manager and analyst. Prior to joining Reams in 2001, Todd worked for Conseco Capital Management Company and The Ohio Public Employees’ Retirement System. For more information, visit the Reams website: https://www.reamsasset.com/people/senior-investment-professionals/todd-thompson/

Show from 2/10/23 Esteemed guest Patrick Harker joins Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Jeremy Siegel to broadcast live from the GIC conference in La Jolla. They focus on trends in monetary policy, workforce, liquidity, and inflation in the US, through 2022 and into the new year. Harker draws from his STEM background, making a case for Fed policies that are data-driven and based on strong indices. Guest: Patrick Harker is the 11th President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Harker is also a former Dean of the Wharton School. Harker participates on the Federal Open Market Committee, which formulates the nation’s monetary policy. As an engineer by training, Harker has continued to apply his research and receive patents throughout his career. He considers the effect of automation on the labor force as “the perfect intersection” of engineering and economics. Other technological influences, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, are also playing a part in the Third District’s and the nation’s economy. For more information, visit the Philadelphia Fed website: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/our-people/patrick-t-harker Follow them on Twitter: @philadelphiafed

Show from 2/09/23 Jeremy Schwartz broadcasts live from the GIC conference in La Jolla, with guests Jim Bianco and Will Peck. Topics covered include wage inflation, crypto and DeFi, where the Phillips curve plays into the Fed’s plan, and the correlation between inflation and money supply. Bianco brings decades of expertise to the conversation, with fresh perspectives on digital currencies from central banks, and DeFi as a whole. Guest: Jim Bianco is President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades-long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows, and positioning in financial markets. For more information, visit the Bianco Research website: https://www.biancoresearch.com/about-us/ Follow him on Twitter: @biancoresearch Additional guest: Will Peck Will Peck is Head of Digital Assets at WisdomTree. In this role, Mr. Peck leads the firm's Strategy Group, leads corporate development, and drives other strategic initiatives for the firm, including the launch of WisdomTree Prime, a financial services app built from the ground up on blockchain rails with DeFi concepts. Follow him on Twitter: @wbpeck

Show from 2/03/23 Jeremy Schwartz and Prof. Jeremy Siegel react to a big week in finance, including US earnings and productivity stats, market and GDP tailwinds post-COVID, news from the Fed, and much more. Drawing from his research, our guest Skanda Amarnath dives deeper into the effects of global and domestic issues on inflation, wages, and labor in the US. In light of promising macroeconomic trends, Skanda is optimistic for the sustainability of the American workforce. Listen in to learn more about the challenges and opportunities he foresees for 2023. Guest: Skanda Amarnath is the Executive Director of Employ America, a research organization advocating for full employment. To take action on his passion for sustainably tighter labor markets, he creates analytical content from macroeconomic and market data. Amarnath was a Vice President at MKP Capital Management, a global alternative investment manager where he also served as a market economist and strategist. Earlier in his career, he worked as an Analyst within New York Fed's Research Group. For more information on Skanda and his work, visit the Employ America website: https://www.employamerica.org/about/ Follow him on Twitter: @IrvingSwisher