Behind the Markets Podcast

Are We Too Optimistic? by Behind the Markets

Show from 10/17/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discussed recent signs of credit stress and how markets are reacting to pressures in private credit. Professor Siegel emphasized that while some private credit deals may go bad, there is no broader systemic risk, citing strong earnings from major banks as evidence. He maintained that the bull market remains intact and projected a 25-basis point Fed rate cut as a near certainty, while dismissing Bitcoin’s current performance as a failure in short-term diversification. He also commented on geopolitical developments, inflation data delays, and anticipated gold’s continued rise amid growing interest in blockchain-based assets. (12:06) Jeremy continues the conversation with Sam Rines, Jeff Weniger, and Chris Gannatti, beginning with takeaways from strong earnings by American Express and Snap-On, signaling ongoing strength in consumer and industrial spending. The group discusses stress in regional banks and private equity, rising investor focus on gold as part of a “60/20/20” portfolio, and narratives surrounding currency debasement. Chris dives into developments in autonomous vehicles, with Waymo’s expansion into London and Houston, and provides updates on OpenAI’s monetization and user growth strategies, suggesting it may evolve into a “super app.” They also explore international themes, including Japanese market opportunities tied to political shifts and valuation gaps, with Sam and Jeremy highlighting investor apathy and potential upside. Jeff discusses the divergence between surging precious metals and falling oil prices, raising questions about the macroeconomic outlook and its implications for Fed rate cuts. Sam adds that U.S.-China trade talks are likely to yield minor but positive outcomes, such as soybean purchases, which could help stabilize markets. The show closes with Jeff contrasting consumer spending forecasts from MasterCard and Deloitte, raising skepticism about survey-based holiday retail projections. Chris and Sam then reflect on investor behavior, particularly among younger generations holding excessive cash allocations. Finally, the team touches on biotech and quantum computing, emphasizing the long timelines and high uncertainty around commercializing innovations in these sectors, despite strong investor interest. WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 10/10/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the market’s resilience amid a continued government shutdown, emphasizing the positive momentum driven by AI and the broader economic environment. Professor Siegel warns about the potential for negative consumer sentiment if the shutdown lingers and points to recent data and global central bank comparisons to support the case for U.S. rate cuts. He also addresses the state of private credit markets, gold and bitcoin trends, and implications of current tariff levels, while noting AI remains a strong market driver. (13:55) Jeremy continues the conversation with Jeff Weniger and Sam Rines before welcoming guest Jim Bianco. Sam shares insights from a recent trip to Mexico, noting optimism from local investors and a surprising lack of concern about U.S. tariffs. He also discusses geopolitical tensions and Chinese EV penetration in Mexico. Jeff offers analysis of stress in private credit markets, highlighting the case of First Brands and broader implications for underwriting standards. The episode then transitions to an in-depth discussion with Jim Bianco, who outlines how a stalled flow of immigration could be reshaping the labor market and the Fed's rate path. He explores how AI is already influencing GDP through data center and energy build-outs, compares its trajectory to the internet’s evolution, and discusses long-term inflation expectations shaped by remote work and global segmentation. Jim also reflects on Fed governance and independence, challenges in interpreting the yield curve, and his fixed income index strategy that leverages ETFs to express macro views. He closes by reaffirming his “4-5-6” return framework and how AI-driven equity gains are masking broader market underperformance. Jim Bianco on X: https://x.com/biancoresearch Website: https://www.biancoresearch.com/visitor-home/ WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 10/03/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest market conditions, highlighting the weakness in the ADP jobs report, stable jobless claims, and a slight decline in consumer confidence. Professor Siegel emphasizes that while the economic data points to some softening, there is no indication of a sharp downturn. He points to this quarter as a critical test for consumer spending amid new tariffs and holiday pressures, observing that inflation in housing and rents remains muted. Siegel also discusses monetary policy and comments on the growing importance of AI, the performance of major tech stocks like Tesla, and the continued divergence between large-cap growth and value stocks. Jeremy continues the show with WisdomTree colleagues Chris Gannatti, Sam Rines, and Jeff Weniger, with Chris diving into recent insights from top voices in the semiconductor and AI space, noting the massive CapEx going into data centers and compute infrastructure. Sam expands on the potential productivity boost from AI agents and the broader ecosystem investments benefiting industrials like Caterpillar. Jeff provides a macro take on central bank policy, expressing skepticism about the timing of rate cuts amid rising equity and commodity markets, and debates the real impact of tariffs. (32:12) In the second half, Jeremy presents a special segment recorded live from the Jacobs-Levy Quant Conference with Professor Bob Korajczyk of Northwestern University. Korajczyk shares research on intangible assets and their role in asset pricing, detailing how adjusted earnings that account for R&D and SG&A provide a more predictive measure of long-term profitability. He explains how this adjustment enhances factor models, offers downside protection characteristics, and discusses implications for accounting standards, portfolio construction, and international investing. Guest: Robert A. Korajczyk is Senior Associate Dean, Faculty and Research and the Harry G. Guthmann Professor of Finance and co-director of the Center for Financial Institutions and Markets. At Kellogg, Korajczyk has previously served as Senior Associate Dean: Curriculum and Teaching, Chair of the Department of Finance, Director of Graduate Studies for the Department of Finance, and Director of the Zell Center for Risk Research. He has held visiting faculty appointments at the University of Chicago, the Vienna University of Economics and Business, the University of Melbourne, the University of Vienna, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Korajczyk received his BA, MBA, and PhD degrees from the University of Chicago. Robert on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robert-korajczyk-b1565714/ WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 09/26/25 Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel review the week’s key economic developments, focusing first on inflation metrics with the PCE deflator and personal income/spending data matching expectations. Professor Siegel emphasizes the significance of stronger-than-expected durable goods orders and a narrowed trade deficit, which have led to upgraded Q3 GDP forecasts from major banks. He also comments on recent remarks from Fed Governor Myron regarding a lower neutral interest rate, citing demographic trends and productivity considerations. The Professor maintains a cautious outlook on the potential impact of tariffs, especially heading into the critical holiday season, and flags the upcoming government shutdown as a potential disruptor to next week’s jobs report. They’re joined by Chris Gannatti, Jeff Weniger, and Sam Rines for a robust discussion that spans trade, technology, and market positioning. They unpack new proposed tariffs from the Trump campaign, assess the durability of corporate strategies for mitigating trade friction, and analyze the AI infrastructure boom—highlighting NVIDIA, OpenAI, and hyperscaler investment cycles. The team debates whether current AI valuations are sustainable, comparing them to past tech cycles, and explore quantum computing as an emerging, though still speculative, theme. The conversation turns to government industrial policy and its role in revitalizing domestic semiconductor manufacturing, particularly around Intel. Finally, they discuss overlooked opportunities in small and mid-cap U.S. equities, noting how rate cuts and strong consumer data, like Costco’s same-store sales, could fuel upside for cyclicals heading into year-end. WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Show from 09/19/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz is joined live from Mallorca by Pierre Debru, Head of Research at WisdomTree Europe, to explore shifting investor sentiment across the continent. Pierre discusses how European investors are reallocating away from the US and toward domestic equities and thematics like defense, nuclear, and rare earths, fueled in part by a weaker dollar. He outlines the renewed interest in defense investing spurred by NATO's 5% GDP spending target, as well as the long-term outlook for Europe’s political and fiscal stability across markets like Greece, Poland, and Italy. The conversation covers capital efficiency, the need for diversification through gold and crypto, and the rise of thematic exposure to quantum computing and AI-related infrastructure. (30:17) Professor Siegel and Kevin Flanagan join to analyze the Fed’s latest 25 basis point rate cut. Professor Siegel emphasizes the strength of the consumer, upward revisions to GDP forecasts, and unity within the Fed despite differing views reflected in the dot plots. He critiques the current path of policy, pointing to lingering inflation concerns from tariffs and the need for further rate cuts amid signs of softening in the labor market. Siegel also discusses falling mortgage premiums, the resilience of housing and business investment, and how investment incentives and AI are likely to benefit small-cap firms over time. Pierre Debru on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/pierre-debru/ Kevin Flanagan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kevin-flanagan-wt/ WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments

Join Sam Rines, a macro expert; Jeff Weniger, a market trends analyst; and Chris Gannatti, a tech insights guru, as they dive into pivotal discussions. They dissect the implications of recent inflation data on Fed policies, explore Oracle’s AI-linked bookings reshaping software, and navigate today’s political volatility. The trio reflects on escalating defense spending in Europe and Asia amidst rising geopolitical tensions, while also forecasting the future of AI, biotech, and quantum computing. Expect insights that blend economy, tech, and global affairs in an engaging exchange!

Join Sam Rines, a sharp analyst on market trends, and Jeff Weniger, who dives into consumer behavior, as they explore the resilience of middle- and upper-income consumers amid economic uncertainties. They discuss the struggles traditional brands like Kraft-Heinz are facing and delve into the gold market's buoyancy influenced by central bank buying. Blake Heimann and Chris Gannatti then highlight insights from a tech conference, examining AI infrastructure, chip supply dynamics, and the growing importance of tech giants like NVIDIA in a landscape reminiscent of the 2000 bubble.

Brandon Zick, CIO of Ceres Partners, guides a fascinating exploration of farmland investments in Indiana. He discusses the unique blend of agriculture and renewable energy, emphasizing opportunities in solar and wind on farmland. The conversation dives into how tariffs impact farmer profitability and the significant potential in innovative energy solutions, such as transforming waste into renewable energy. Zick also outlines the evolving landscape of farmland investing, revealing insights from recent property acquisitions and the shift towards institutional investment.

Show from 08/29/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the PCE inflation data coming in exactly as expected, a surprising widening in the July trade deficit, and the implications of upcoming employment data on the Fed's decision-making. The Prof suggests a 25 basis point cut is likely unless job numbers are unexpectedly weak. (14:22) Jeremy is joined by Sean Avory, CIO of Avory Co, who shares his constructive view on markets, discusses opportunities in small and mid-cap equities, and outlines his firm's high-conviction investment strategies across public and private markets. The conversation highlights themes such as AI infrastructure, data-driven investing, and identity verification as a key growth sector. Sean also offers insight on valuation dislocations caused by passive investing trends and the role active ETFs may play going forward. Wisdom Tree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments