Behind the Markets Podcast Requiem for Momentum
Nov 14, 2025
Jeremy Siegel, a seasoned economist and author, joins macro experts Jeff Winninger, Chris Gennady, and Samuel Rines for a deep dive into market dynamics. They tackle the market's reaction to the recent government shutdown and the Fed's hawkish stance. Christopher illuminates AI's impact on tech buildouts and compute shortages. Sam discusses the innovative 50-year mortgage as a solution for housing affordability. The group also grapples with international tensions between China and India, and the sustainability of tech valuations amid shifting market factors.
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Episode notes
Fed Hawkishness Misreads Inflation Drivers
- Jeremy Siegel argues the Fed is too hawkish because many inflation drivers (like insurance rates) won't respond to demand restrictions.
- He sees the Fed's stance as the proximate cause of recent market weakness, not the government shutdown.
Equity Risk Premium Still Positive
- Siegel reviewed a CFA debate and still expects a 2–4% equity risk premium over bonds for the next decade.
- He warns CAPE has deficiencies and that valuations imply modest forward returns if PE stays at 23.
Watch Consumers And Buy Moderate Dips
- Monitor consumer spending and big-box retailer trends as early signals of tariff-driven affordability pressure.
- Buy into the market on dips of 5–10% according to Siegel's buying-on-dip comfort range.
