Pakistonomy

We continue our special series on the US-China strategic competition this week by looking at Australia’s evolving foreign policy with Professor Jane Golley. Professor Jane Golley is an economist at the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University (ANU). Jane is an ANU graduate (BEc, Hons, 1993). Jane's life-long interest in China began with a brief stint in the Asia Section of the Australian Commonwealth Treasury in 1993, before she left for the University of Oxford, where she wrote her Dphil thesis on 'The Dynamics of Chinese Regional Development: Market Nature, State Nurture'. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:50 The Australian view on China 11:08 Assessing Australia’s China policy 14:50 Technology and geoeconomics 23:15 Debt-trap diplomacy 31:30 Who wins this competition? 37:50 What should Global South countries do? 44:15 Key trends to watch for 48:20 Reading recommendations Reading Recommendations: - The China Choice by Hugh White - Fear of Abandonment by Allan Gyngell - No Enemies No Friends - Six Faces of Globalization by Anthea Roberts

We continue our special series on the US-China strategic competition this week by looking at the deepening military ties between Pakistan and China with Sameer Lalwani. Sameer Lalwani is a senior expert on South Asia at the U.S. Institute of Peace. He is also a non-resident senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. From 2015 to 2022, Dr. Lalwani was a senior fellow for Asia strategy and the director of the South Asia program at the Stimson Center. He has also spent time as an adjunct professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs and as a Stanton nuclear security postdoctoral fellow at the RAND Corporation. Sameer recently published a report titled A Threshold Alliance: The China-Pakistan Military Relationship which is a must-read: https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/03/threshold-alliance-china-pakistan-military-relationship Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:30 What is a threshold alliance? 4:50 Pakistan’s procurement of Chinese weapons 10:25 Where is the Pakistan-China relationship going? 19:30 China’s influence in Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea 29:40 Important trends to monitor 37:37 Reading recommendations

Over the next few episodes, we are going to be focusing on the US-China rivalry and what it means for the world. In addition, we will try to bring to the forefront a diverse set of views on this rivalry and what key actors are concerned about and trying to do. To start things off, I spoke to Andrew Small on China’s rise, what are the key things concerning countries in East Asia, and where he sees things going. Andrew Small is a senior transatlantic fellow with GMF's Indo-Pacific Program, which he established in 2006. His research focuses on U.S.–China relations, Europe–China relations, Chinese policy in South Asia, and broader developments in China's foreign and economic policy. He is the author of The Rupture: China and the Global Race for the Future, which was named one of the 2022 Financial Times Politics Books of the Year, and The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:50 China’s rise and key concerns 10:00 Military escalation in East Asia 21:37 Assessing Washington’s approach 32:10 Emerging markets, debt, and Chinese influence 40:20 What should South Asia pay attention to? 48:06 Reading recommendations

In this episode, we talk about the meat industry in Pakistan, key components of this sector, and why meat prices are going up in the country. Suleman Anwar joined us to share his insights on these topics, what a roadmap for reforms should look like, and why price caps will not work. Suleman is a six-sigma trained business development & turnaround professional, successful at driving sustainable top-line growth, improving customer retention rates, and continuous bottom-line improvements. After extensive corporate sector work for +14 years with international brands, in 2017 he started his entrepreneurial journey and co-founded three successful startups. He is also a member of SBN ExCom for Pakistan under the umbrella of the Ministry of Planning Development and Special Initiatives and has been a member of the working group of the State Bank of Pakistan on special initiatives. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:45 Key components of the meat value chain 12:20 Synergies in agriculture sector 30:30 Cold storage and dairy supply chain 40:50 Role of incentives in policy 46:50 McDonalds in India 52:00 Contracts and property rights 57:28 Key reasons for meat inflation 1:05:20 Roadmap for change 1:13:15 Reading recommendations Reading Recommendations: - Char Admi by Amjad Saqib - Getting Things Done by David Allen - Diplomacy by Henry Kissinger Readings for McDonalds in India: - https://mcdonaldsblog.in/2016/10/20-years-the-potato-revolution/ - https://www.forbesindia.com/article/my-learnings/in-search-of-the-perfect-potato-mcdonalds-in-india/21052/1 - https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-products/food/we-source-all-our-ingredients-locally-mcdonalds-india/articleshow/17480753.cms?from=mdr

In this episode, Uzair talks to Leila Serhan about Visa’s strategy, role, and mission for digitizing payments and promoting financial inclusion in Pakistan. We talk about how the company views Pakistan’s market, what it is doing to have a meaningful impact in the country, and ways in which digitization of payments can be accelerated in Pakistan. Leila Serhan is the Group Country Manager and Senior Vice President for NALP. Leila brings more than two decades experience of leadership positions, including 20 years gained at Microsoft. Leila most recently led Microsoft’s public sector business across the Gulf region, and previously served as General Manager for its operations across North Africa, East Mediterranean, and Pakistan. She previously held roles spanning country management, finance and marketing and has driven public and private sector digital transformation initiatives in finance, government and education. Leila is a strong advocate for women’s empowerment, founding and currently serving as President for the Women in IT Association in Lebanon. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:30 Visa’s business and core competencies 8:50 Barriers to financial inclusion 18:40 Visa’s impact strategy in Pakistan 23:06 Digital public infrastructure 32:40 Reading recommendations Reading recommendations: - How To Win Friends And Influence People by Dale Carnegie - Good Strategy Bad Strategy by Richard Rumelt - A Gentleman In Moscow by Amor Towles

We talk about the role access to the internet can play in transforming Pakistan’s economy, promote inclusion, and really empower those who are on the periphery of Pakistan’s political economy. The Universal Service Fund (USF) has been doing some phenomenal work on this topic, and Haaris Mahmood Chaudhry, who currently serves as Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of USF, joins us to share what his organization is up to to promote access to the internet. Haaris has over 20 years of global experience in the private and public sector, with a particular focus in telecoms and finance. You should also follow USF on Twitter @USF_Pak. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:30 USF’s mandate and mission 10:20 Scaling internet infrastructure in Pakistan 15:30 Barriers to access in the ecosystem 22:30 Scaling pilot projects 28:10 Impact of access to internet

In this episode, Uzair talks to Dr. Aaron L. Jackson about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the strains we are seeing in the US banking sector. We also talk about rising rates, why the Fed is being so aggressive, and the outlook for inflation and the US economy. Aaron L. Jackson is the Senior Associate Dean of Business, and Professor of Economics at Bentley University, where he has also served as Chair of the Economics department. Aaron’s academic interests in teaching and research focus on macroeconomics and monetary policy. He has publications in a number of journals including Applied Economics, the Journal of Macroeconomics, Economic Inquiry, Review of World Economics, and Macroeconomic Dynamics, among others. Aaron has periodically provided expert commentary on monetary policy and the macroeconomy to various media both locally and nationally. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 2:00 The financial crisis and its implications 15:00 Inflation and asset prices 21:32 Inflationary pressures and higher rates 37:00 SVB’s collapse and bank runs 49:15 Conclusion

Uzair talks to Usama Nini, co-founder of Qureos, a startup changing how people connect, learn and work. The team is on a mission to accelerate 100 million careers by matching talent to mentors, projects and job opportunities. In this episode, we talk about Usama’s own journey, what Qureos is looking to do, and how technology is helping reduce friction in the jobs market. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:30 Mission and vision 18:30 Growth and investment goals 24:20 What should people focus on early in their careers? 39:15 Reading recommendations

In this episode, we talk about Pakistan’s debt problems, how much it needs to repay in the near future, and whether the country needs debt restructuring. We also talk about some of the ways in which debt management needs to improve in the country. Joining me for this conversation is Uzair Aqeel, who has 15+ years of experience in international debt markets, including structured credit and distressed debt. He was previously at Deutsche Bank in London, where he was global head of distribution for complex emerging market products, overseeing the firm’s largest institutional client relationships. His team raised billions of dollars in debt for emerging market borrowers, including stressed sovereigns like Ukraine, Egypt and Argentina. He is now the managing partner of Nairang Capital, a private markets investor focused on emerging & frontier markets. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:45 What are Pakistan’s debt repayment obligations? 9:25 Does Pakistan need debt restructuring? 27:30 Why is debt restructuring not a panacea? 36:00 How do improve debt management?

In this episode, Uzair talks to Gonzalo Varela about the World Bank’s most recent report on Pakistan’s economy and its key findings. We talk about how distortions caused by tax policy, inefficient pricing of inputs and products, and curbs on imports are stagnating growth in the country. We also talk about the benefits of improving the economic inclusion of women in the country and its near- and long-term consequences on the broader political economy. Finally, we also lay out the sequence of key reforms that must be considered by a government to rebuild from the ongoing crisis. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:55 Key findings from the report 17:50 Distortions in the wheat market 27:45 Sovereign’s borrowing and impact on investment 43:10 Women’s role in economic growth 51:00 Sequence and nature of reforms You can read the full World Bank report here - https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099820410112267354/pdf/P1749040fc80a70ca0b6f70f7860c4a1034.pdf