Pakistonomy

There has been a lot of confusion about the recently-announced Azm-e-Istehkam effort, which was initially dubbed as an operation but later revised to be a vision by the Sharif-led government. To talk about what the state is trying to do and to better understand the growing security crisis across Pakistan, Uzair invited Iftikhar Firdous to the podcast. Iftikhar is founder and editor of The Khorasan Diary, an organization that closely follows security issues in the region. We talked about the role of China and the Afghan Taliban in the ongoing crisis, the regional dynamics at play, and why the political division across Pakistan is exacerbating the crisis. If you want to stay on top of these topics, follow Iftikhar at @IftikharFirdous. You should also follow The Khorasan Diary at @khorasandiary and subscribe to their YoutTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/c/TheKhorasanDiary Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 2:20 What is Azm-e-Istehkam? 14:40 Militancy and illicit economy 26:20 No-go areas and growing insecurity 40:10 Chinese demands from Pakistan 46:02 Relationship with Afghan Taliban 53:10 Regional security dynamics at play

Shehbaz Sharif’s government has put forward a new budget for the upcoming fiscal year, setting off a debate on more taxes, government spending, and economic reforms. As parliament debates the budget, some things may change about the exact numbers. But to discuss what has been put on the table, Uzair spoke to Ammar H. Khan about what this budget signals and why it pursues a “deepening” of the tax net, as opposed to a widening. We also talked about the energy sector and why prices are being reduced for industrial consumers of electricity, as well as Ammar’s views on what he calls the heartland strategy. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:30 Budget takeaways 7:10 Pension reforms 10:30 Power subsidies 15:10 Inflation and salaried class 20:30 Digitization and taxes 26:16 Why are cash handouts criticized? 28:05 Electricity tariffs for industry 38:40 Heartland strategy and its issues

Kathy Baughman McLeod discusses the impact of heatwaves in South Asia, highlighting the need for preparation and policy changes. Topics include understanding heatwaves, solutions like cool roofs, and adapting to the new climate. Reading recommendations focus on climate change and its societal implications.

The world’s largest elections are over and they have delivered a surprise in India. While we will get more detailed analysis in the coming days, what is for certain is that the elections mark a return to coalition politics in the world’s largest democracy. Uzair spoke to Rahul Verma about what the results mean for India, Narendra Modi, and the country’s democracy. We also talked about what the BJP and Congress got right, what they are likely to do next, and the role of coalition allies moving forward. Rahul Verma is Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, and Visiting Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science, Ashoka University, Sonipat. He has a PhD in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley. His research interests include political representation, political parties, and voting behaviour. He is a regular columnist for various news platforms, and a regular TV commentator on elections, party politics, voting behavior, and public opinion polls. His book co-authored with Pradeep Chhibber, Ideology and Identity: The Changing Party Systems of India, develops a new approach to defining the contours of what constitutes an ideology in multi-ethnic countries such as India. He recently co-edited a volume with Sudha Pai & Shyam Babu - Dalits in the New Millennium. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:30 Key takeaways from the elections 8:30 Has Hindutva reached its peak? 21:30 Return of coalition politics 29:10 Scope for reforms in a coalition 33:50 What to look for in the near-term 38:47 Reading recommendations Reading recommendations: - Coalition Politics and Economic Development: Credibility and the Strength of Weak Governments by Irfan Nooruddin - Ideology and Identity: The Changing Party Systems of India by Rahul Verma and Pradeep Chhibber - Raag Darbari by Shrilal Shukla

In this episode, Uzair talks to Abdul Moiz Jaferii about the ongoing cases in Pakistan’s superior judiciary. We focused on the wiretapping case being heard by Justice Babar Sattar, cases related to Imran Khan, and the broader implications of the supposed standoff between the establishment and the judiciary. We also focused on the political ramifications of these cases through the summer and whether Imran Khan will be out of jail in the next few months. Abdul Moiz Jaferii is a lawyer and tweets @jaferii Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:30 The latest at the courts 7:30 IHC’s letter to Justice Isa 15:00 Illegal wiretapping case 33:30 Political ramifications 39:00 Will Khan be out soon?

In this episode, Uzair talks to Ali Khizar about the upcoming budget and the ongoing conversations between the IMF and Pakistan. We focused on why this government will only pursue incremental reforms, the issues with the power sector, and why broadening the tax base is unlikely for the time being. Ali Khizar is head of research at Business Recorder and has over 20 years of experience in economic research and business analysis. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:55 IMF’s focus for Pakistan 9:30 Taxes in the budget 22:50 Cost of energy 36:30 Privatization outlook 47:20 Political space for reforms

In this episode, Uzair talks to Ali Farid Khwaja about the potential of Saudi investments into Pakistan. We talked about why things were moving slowly, sectors Saudi is interested in, and why it is important for Pakistan to approach these conversations in a more professional manner. Ali Farid Khwaja is Chairman of KTrade Securities and has over a decade of experience in the technology and financial sectors. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:35 Current state of play 12:00 What Pakistan needs to get right 19:20 Engagement with IMF 27:20 What is Saudi seeking from Pakistan? 32:30 Risks to watch for 38:20 Conclusion

In this episode, Uzair talks to Khurram Husain about the latest decision by the central bank to keep rates unchanged. We talked about why the central bank has a credibility problem and how the IMF is influencing its choices. We also discussed the ongoing conversations between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, why it feels different this time around, and the role of geopolitics. Finally, we also discussed the upcoming budget, the finance minister’s priorities, and how he can secure his position in the cabinet. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 2:00 Interest rates and the IMF 16:20 Saudi Arabia’s interest in Pakistan 24:45 Role of geopolitics in Saudi conversations 32:18 Budget and reforms outlook 39:05 How long will the finance minister last?

Uzair talks to Dr. Ghazala Mansuri about Pakistan’s stunting crisis and its implications for the country’s future. We focused on key causes of stunting, the linkage with Pakistan’s water supply, and what the country can learn from other nations. The conversation also focused on climate change and its impact on human development, especially stunting. Dr. Ghazala Mansuri is a Lead Economist for the South Asia Region and a Global Lead for the Welfare Impacts of Climate Change at the World Bank. Her work, at the intersection of research and policy, has been published in leading journals in economics and development, including the American Economic Review, the Review of Economic Studies and the Review of Economics and Statistics. Her current research focuses on the effect of public policies on human development, and the impact of climate change and environmental degradation on the agri-food system and its implications for human health, poverty, and inequality. Her recent reports include When Water becomes a Hazard (2018), and the Pakistan Country Climate and Development Report (2022). She holds a PhD in economics from Boston University. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 3:05 Nature and scale of crisis 18:10 Water and stunting 25:50 Ways to solve for this 31:50 Climate change and stunting 48:50 What have other countries done? 55:30 What can the government do? 59:10 What can parents do? 1:09:00 Reading recommendations Reading Recommendations: - An Agricultural Testament by Albert Howard - The Soil and Health by Albert Howard - Farmers of Forty Centuries by Franklin H. King - Dirt: The Erosion of Civilization by David Montgomery

Uzair talks to M. Abdul Aleem about the role of foreign investment in Pakistan’s economy and the key reforms that foreign investors would like to see in the country. We also talked about what leading executives look for in emerging talent, and the key pain points faced by foreign investors in Pakistan. Mr. Muhammad Abdul Aleem is the CEO and Secretary General of Overseas Investors Chambers of Commerce & Industry (OICCI). OICCI is the oldest (since 1860) chamber of commerce in Asia. OICCI’s members comprising of 210 foreign investors collectively contribute about one third of the total tax revenue of Pakistan besides being the leader in transfer of technology and investment. Mr Abdul Aleem has worked in senior positions in both Exxon Chemicals and Engro Corporation, serving in Pakistan and Singapore. Thereafter, he worked with British American Tobacco Group UK (BAT) in Pakistan and overseas, where he ultimately served as CEO of BAT Operations in Cambodia, Mauritius, and Indian Ocean territory. Since 2004, he has served in senior positions with large Government-owned organizations in Pakistan and his last assignment was as the Managing Director, Pakistan State Oil Company Ltd. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 4:30 The role of foreign investors 13:30 Key issues and solutions for the economy 22:20 Why are investors kept away from policymaking? 26:40 Key traits for emerging talent 33:25 Learning from failure 36:40 Reform priorities 42:40 Judicial reforms 46:05 Reading recommendations Reading Recommendations: - CEO Excellence by Carolyn Dewar, Scott Keller, and Vikram Malhotra - Prosperity: Better Business Makes the Greater Good by Colin Mayer