In a wide-ranging conversation, Dr. Elizabeth Economy and Dr. Melanie Hart discuss China’s economic coercion, its impact globally, and how the United States can most effectively respond. Hart draws on cases from her time at the State Department to illustrate how her team successfully combatted Chinese efforts to use the power of their market to force political alignment by other countries. She also stresses, however, that this is an ongoing battle.  Hart also describes the Biden administration's framework for reducing dependence on Chinese critical minerals and semiconductors. She underscores the importance of investing in domestic manufacturing, partnering with other countries to build alternatives to Chinese suppliers, and working with allies to coordinate effective policy and early warning systems to address supply chain issues before they occur. ABOUT THE SPEAKERS Dr. Melanie Hart is the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub. She leads the Hub’s efforts to analyze Beijing’s actions and their global impacts using rigorous analysis and innovative data to generate actionable policy solutions, enabling the United States and its allies to respond effectively to common policy challenges on China. Prior joining the Council, Hart worked at the US Department of State, where she served as senior advisor for China in the Office of the Undersecretary for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment. In that role, Hart was instrumental in crafting strategies to reduce nation-state vulnerabilities to Chinese pressure. She developed the Department of State’s playbook for responding to Chinese economic coercion and led an internal unit that provided coercion-response support to multiple nations. Before joining the State Department, Hart served as senior fellow and director for China policy at the Center for American Progress, where her work helped shape domestic and global approaches to China on issues such as 5G policy, economic competition, energy and climate policy, and global governance. Elizabeth Economy is the Hargrove Senior Fellow and co-director of the Program on the US, China, and the World at the Hoover Institution. From 2021-2023, she took leave from Hoover to serve as the senior advisor for China to the US secretary of commerce. Before joining Hoover, she was the C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and director, Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of four books on China, including most recently The World According to China (Polity, 2021), and the co-editor of two volumes. She serves on the boards of the National Endowment for Democracy and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. She is a member of the Aspen Strategy Group and Council on Foreign Relations and serves as a book reviewer for Foreign Affairs.   FOLLOW OUR GUEST ON SOCIAL MEDIA Melanie Hart on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/melanie-hart ABOUT THE SERIES China Considered with Elizabeth Economy is a Hoover Institution podcast series that features in-depth conversations with leading political figures, scholars, and activists from around the world. The series explores the ideas, events, and forces shaping China’s future and its global relationships, offering high-level expertise, clear-eyed analysis, and valuable insights to demystify China’s evolving dynamics and what they may mean for ordinary citizens and key decision makers across societies, governments, and the private sector.

Host Elizabeth Economy sits down with Jimmy Goodrich to discuss the technology competition between the United States and China.  Goodrich argues that the competition is far from settled with leadership in many emerging technologies still up for grabs.  He describes China’s model as one defined by state-led investment in key sectors, tremendous depth in their ability to innovate, and leading the race in advanced technology and patents. He also outlines China’s long-term ambition to dominate the next wave of advanced technology such as high-energy physics and quantum computing. But he cautions that a weak private sector and venture capital landscape, as well as constraints on access to foreign technology, pose real limitations in some areas. The United States, in contrast, is led by a dynamic private sector with a strong startup ecosystem, and world-class universities. It is also viewed as possessing more advanced capabilities in the current generation of technology. Goodrich concludes that whichever nation can better attract the top talent, create the best companies to diffuse AI into their economy, and effectively integrate AI into the military will shape the world we live in for generations to come. Recorded on December 2nd, 2024.  ABOUT THE SPEAKERS Jimmy Goodrich is a leading expert on technology, geopolitics, and national security with a focus on China and East Asia. He is a senior advisor for technology analysis to the RAND Corporation and a nonresident fellow at the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, where he works in various capacities on research regarding China, technology, and national competitiveness. Jimmy was previously the vice president for global policy at the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), where he led the industry’s supply chain, international trade, export control, global market research, and China efforts. His work at SIA included researching Chinese industrial policy and chip industry economics, successfully securing $52 billion in funding for the CHIPS and Science Act, and navigating complex multinational export control and other national security issues. Jimmy was also the director for China policy at the Information Technology Industry Council (ITI) in Washington, DC, and prior to that spent seven years in the tech sector in China. Elizabeth Economy is the Hargrove Senior Fellow and co-director of the Program on the US, China, and the World at the Hoover Institution. From 2021-2023, she took leave from Hoover to serve as the senior advisor for China to the US secretary of commerce. Before joining Hoover, she was the C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and director, Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of four books on China, including most recently The World According to China (Polity, 2021), and the co-editor of two volumes. She serves on the boards of the National Endowment for Democracy and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. She is a member of the Aspen Strategy Group and Council on Foreign Relations and serves as a book reviewer for Foreign Affairs.   FOLLOW OUR GUEST ON SOCIAL MEDIA Jimmy Goodrich on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jimmygoodrich/ ABOUT THE SERIES China Considered with Elizabeth Economy is a Hoover Institution podcast series that features in-depth conversations with leading political figures, scholars, and activists from around the world. The series explores the ideas, events, and forces shaping China’s future and its global relationships, offering high-level expertise, clear-eyed analysis, and valuable insights to demystify China’s evolving dynamics and what they may mean for ordinary citizens and key decision makers across societies, governments, and the private sector.

Joerg Wuttke, a seasoned partner at DGA Albright Stonebridge and former leader at BASF in China, shares his insights from over 30 years in the country. He discusses the rapid evolution of China’s business environment, the ongoing systemic challenges from government policies, and the impact of COVID-19 on foreign companies. Wuttke reflects on the nostalgia of the past, contrasting it with today's surveillance state. His experiences reveal the complexities of navigating a landscape increasingly hostile to both Chinese and multinational enterprises.

Host Dr. Elizabeth Economy sits down with Rhodium Group Co-founder Daniel Rosen for an in-depth look at the current state of the Chinese economy, the challenges it will face going forward and how a second Trump presidency may affect it.    With an economy that is currently facing reduced growth, a cratering real estate sector, and increased scrutiny from US and EU counterparts over its exports of overcapacity in EVs, Rosen describes the issues at the heart of the problem: a failure to meaningfully reform the fiscal system, including rebalancing the share of central and local government revenues, weak domestic consumption and over-reliance on investment and exports, and high levels of local government debt. Rosen also outlines the challenges China faces on the global stage with its grand-scale infrastructure initiative, the Belt and Road.   Rosen concludes that without a serious reboot of economic reform and opening the Chinese economy will only continue to lose steam.   The two also discuss the effects of what a second Trump presidency, and tariffs up to 60%, may bring to China. And while it may not be time to press the panic button yet, an expected increase in tariffs is almost certain to have major macroeconomic effects. ABOUT THE SPEAKERS Daniel H. Rosen is the co-founder of Rhodium Group and leads the firm’s work on China. Mr. Rosen has worked professionally on China’s domestic economy and global commercial relations since 1992. He is widely recognized for his research on US-China relations and Asian commercial dynamics. He is affiliated with numerous think tanks focused on international economics and is an Adjunct Associate Professor at Columbia University. From 2000-2001, Mr. Rosen was Senior Adviser for International Economic Policy at the White House National Economic Council and National Security Council. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the National Committee on US-China Relations. A native of New York City, Mr. Rosen graduated with distinction from the graduate School of Foreign Service of Georgetown University (MSFS) and with honors in Asian Studies and Economics from the University of Texas, Austin (BA). Elizabeth Economy is the Hargrove Senior Fellow and co-director of the Program on the US, China, and the World at the Hoover Institution. From 2021-2023, she took leave from Hoover to serve as the senior advisor for China to the US secretary of commerce. Before joining Hoover, she was the C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and director, Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of four books on China, including most recently The World According to China (Polity, 2021), and the co-editor of two volumes. She serves on the boards of the National Endowment for Democracy and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. She is a member of the Aspen Strategy Group and Council on Foreign Relations and serves as a book reviewer for Foreign Affairs.  RELATED SOURCES End of the Line: The Cost of Faltering Reforms A Diversification Framework for China Rhodium Group FOLLOW OUR GUEST ON SOCIAL MEDIA Dan Rosen on X: x.com/rhodiumdan Dan Rosen on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/daniel-rosen-2236b36 ABOUT THE SERIES China Considered with Elizabeth Economy is a Hoover Institution podcast series that features in-depth conversations with leading political figures, scholars, and activists from around the world. The series explores the ideas, events, and forces shaping China’s future and its global relationships, offering high-level expertise, clear-eyed analysis, and valuable insights to demystify China’s evolving dynamics and what they may mean for ordinary citizens and key decision makers across societies, governments, and the private sector.

Matt Pottinger, a former senior aide in the Trump Administration, and Evan Medeiros, a top advisor during Obama's presidency, provide insights into the turbulent U.S.-China relationship. They discuss the potential ramifications of Trump's re-election on trade policies and tariffs, and how U.S. alliances with European and Asian partners are evolving. The conversation highlights the balance Beijing must strike between diplomacy and competition, and stresses the need for continuous dialogue amidst rising tensions. Historical parallels with Nixon and Mao are also explored.