The Dividend Mailbox®

Greg Denewiler
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Apr 24, 2023 • 1h 1min

Downfalls of a Lottery Ticket Mindset with Jeff Weniger — Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!In this month’s episode, Greg sits down with Jeff Weniger, Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree. For the unfamiliar, WisdomTree is a fund and ETF manager with roughly $90 billion in assets under management. What makes WisdomTree’s funds special is that most of them focus on dividend and dividend growth strategies. One of their largest funds is the US Quality Dividend Growth Fund ($DGRW), which incidentally is our largest core position and is one we have mentioned over past episodes. Among their other funds, $DGRW is exceptional for gaining exposure to quality dividend growth.  Jeff has spent decades in the finance world and specializes in the management and creation of strategy-focused ETFs. Prior to joining WisdomTree, he was Director & Senior Strategist at BMO, working directly with the CIO of the firm from 2006 to 2017. He is a CFA charterholder, and earned his MBA from Notre Dame.  As head WisdomTree’s equity strategy, Jeff has invaluable experience in equity markets and provides unique perspectives for long-term investors and the macro environment. During Greg and Jeff’s discussion, they cover the history of dividends, the difference between US and overseas dividend culture, why “boring” actually performs well, and why having a lottery ticket mindset can lead to mistakes. The interview is full of topics that the dividend investor should keep in mind and ultimately serves as a powerful reminder of why dividend growth investing is a long-term strategy that works.EDIT: This episode was originally uploaded with an hour of silence that followed the episode. The current audio file has been edited and corrected. Send us a text If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review RESOURCES: Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services. Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X
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Mar 22, 2023 • 46min

Dividend Cuts Don’t Have to Cut Your Income

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!Most of the time, using the screening criteria that are characteristic of good dividend growth companies weeds out the bad apples. When you buy companies that have low debt, attractive yield, high return on invested capital, etc., it can feel like you’ll be cashing those dividends forever. However, companies inevitably run into challenges, and you might get a surprise. If you invest long enough, you’ll eventually find yourself with a dividend that’s been cut and a once attractive investment that has soured. The good news is if your portfolio is structured properly, not even dividend cuts get in the way of growing your income every year.On another note, one factor that greatly influences the security of a dividend is debt. Given everything that has happened in the market recently, and with a liquidity crisis in the banking sector, debt has become a hot topic. It is extremely important to understand how debt functions for a company, especially in an environment with rising interest rates.In this month’s episode, Greg takes you on a deep dive into Intel ($INTC). He looks at why we originally bought it, the problems they ran into, and why they recently cut their dividend. He even lays out why it may do better in a couple of years. Later, He uses a couple of different examples to show how debt can be good, bad, or indifferent.Send us a text If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review RESOURCES: Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services. Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X
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Feb 22, 2023 • 40min

Sometimes Value Outweighs Sustainable Growth

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!When the goal is to compound wealth for decades, there is a significant difference between dividend growth and sustainable dividend growth. While the difference is obvious enough, they are two distinctly different investments and should be treated as such. Although we believe that sustainable dividend growth is ultimately what builds wealth over time, that doesn't mean that other investment ideas should be ignored altogether. When a stock gets cheap enough, even if its dividend is questionable, sometimes you have to jump on it.In this episode, Greg builds on the premise of Episode 18 and examines Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation ($OCSL), a business development company with a 10%+ yield. At the risk of contradicting himself and the case he made against high yield, he argues that there comes a time when value beats dividend sustainability. While the risks of high-yield investments remain, he uses OCSL to compare dividend growth vs. sustainable dividend growth. Later on, Greg provides updates on companies we have covered in past episodes, and where we view them post-Q4 earnings. If you are interested in the original episodes where we went in-depth into each story, they are linked below:The Clorox Company ($CLX): Ep. 8 - Dirty vs. Clean Opportunities & Ep. 9 - Greater Volatility and More Uncertainty...Emerson Electric ($EMR): Ep. 17 - The Dilemma With Slow Growth3M Co ($MMM): Ep. 15 - You Don't Need A "Winner" to 10x Your IncomeUnited Parcel Service ($UPS): Ep. 19 - Do Dividends Care About Recessions?Send us a text If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review RESOURCES: Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services. Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X
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Jan 21, 2023 • 38min

Do Dividends Care About Recessions?

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!Heading into 2023, it seems as though the word recession is on the tip of everyone's tongue. At first thought, a recession might make you grimace, but what do they actually mean in real terms for an investor? Truth be told, you never know you're in a recession until after the fact, but it is essential to understand how they affect the economy. If you're a long-time investor, 2008 and 2001 were painful examples of just how fast your portfolio's value can change. So we know recessions are bad for the stock market... are they that bad for dividends?Good news for the dividend growth investor — dividends are resilient through even the worst of downturns.In this month's episode, Greg takes a page out of the market history book to dive into just how recessions affect GDP, earnings, the stock market, and especially dividends. He makes the case that dividends are a much more stable, if not the most predictable, factor to focus on when things get rough. Later he examines UPS as a potential dividend growth candidate. Send us a text If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review RESOURCES: Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services. Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X
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Dec 21, 2022 • 37min

No 7%+ Yields for Us — Here’s Why

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!If you spend much time managing your own money or researching companies, odds are you have been exposed to high-yielding opportunities. From stocks to bonds to real estate, there are plenty of investments out there that present themselves as quality investments while simultaneously generating large income streams. 7%+ yields seem hard to beat, but there is usually a reason why the yield is so high. In a way, the market is essentially showing the investor a blinking warning light, one that indicates that there is risk built into the price of the company. This is not to say that these opportunities don't work, just that dividend growth investors need to be wary of what they entail.In the year's final episode, Greg answers a listener's question about prioritizing dividend growth or yield when nearing retirement age. That opens the door to examining the pitfalls of investing in high-yielding companies, where he provides a framework for analyzing the risk embedded within such investments. Later he compares Williams-Sonoma and Restoration Hardware in response to Berkshire Hathaway's recent addition of the company to its portfolio. Finally, Greg wraps up the episode with some food for thought.Happy Holidays!Send us a text If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review RESOURCES: Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services. Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X
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Nov 18, 2022 • 30min

The Dilemma With Slow Growth

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!Constructing an attractive yet sustainable dividend growth portfolio is no easy feat, especially one that meets your expectations. As much as you try, you will eventually invest in a company whose dividend growth rate doesn't meet your expectations. For us, we want to attain a dividend growth rate of at least 6% a year on average, and ideally faster than that. Every investor needs a process for evaluating whether a company is a net positive on their portfolio, or if it’s weighing it down. But it’s not black and white. If the dividend growth hasn’t been there, but the stock price has done well and you've owned it for a long time, reaching a decision can be complicated. The dilemma is: do you sell the company and move on, or can you see a clear path for the company to get back on track? For our 17th episode, Greg looks at Emerson Electric (EMR), a company we have owned for over 10 years. While the stock has returned over 150%, the dividend growth rate has not met our expectations. Faced with the dilemma of selling the company, he takes you through our process of how we figure out what to expect going forward. Later he contrasts this story with Hanes Brands, a company that we eventually sold.Within the show, we use a simple dividend growth model as a starting point. If you would like to follow along, it is linked below:EMR Simple Dividend Growth ModelSend us a text If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review RESOURCES: Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services. Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X
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Oct 22, 2022 • 24min

When Challenges Arise, the Better Investment Isn't Always Obvious

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!It's safe to say that the stock market faces some daunting problems currently. To some investors, it's enough to make them change their strategy, seek alternate investments, or pull out entirely. Regardless of the negative consequences those actions can have on your portfolio, haven't investors always faced challenges? As Morgan Housel brilliantly states:  "Every past market decline looks like an opportunity, and every future decline appears to be a risk." Understandably, if you were to listen to all the noise out there, it'd be hard to look past your nose. That is why in environments like this, one of the best things you can do is take a step back and gain some perspective.  In this episode, Greg shares a couple of reassuring stories that illustrate how important it is to stay the course. In fact, if you stay on track long enough, it could result in immense wealth. He examines how a rental property investment might perform decently well, but falls short in comparison to dividend growth. Later he takes a look at NASA's recent D.A.R.T. mission success, drawing a comparison to long-term investing.Send us a text If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review RESOURCES: Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services. Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X
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Sep 16, 2022 • 26min

You Don't Need A "Winner" To 10x Your Income

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our newsletter!For most investors, if their portfolio went up by X amount in Y years, they'd be satisfied. Yet simultaneously, those same investors secretly hope they bought the next big thing, waiting for the stock's price to grow 10x. In truth, 10x-ing a stock price is challenging. It requires resources, unique ideas, and a willingness to go above and beyond fellow market participants. To the average investor, expecting every investment to go up tenfold might be wishful thinking. But what about growing your portfolio income 10x? Now that is much more attainable... In this month's episode, Greg examines 3M, a company that has been in our portfolio for over a decade. Although the company's stock has recently seen a decline, he makes the case that it is much easier to 10x a stock's income than it is to 10x a stock's price — all it takes is a mindset. Later, he explores if there is any value in market predictions and forecasts. Send us a text If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review RESOURCES: Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services. Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X
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Aug 16, 2022 • 27min

Is Your Goal to Make Money or Build Wealth?

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our newsletter!What do you do when one of your investments has rapid success? Do you sell it for a quick gain hoping to buy it back later? Anytime you buy or sell you have to make a decision, and with every decision comes another chance of being wrong.  Large jumps in stock prices are tempting, but they put investors at a crossroads. You have to decide if your goal is to make money... or to create wealth.In this month's episode, Greg outlines the best way to execute the dividend growth strategy, and specifically, how to stay disciplined when things go well. He dives into Williams-Sonoma, a specialty retailer with a nearly flawless balance sheet that has rallied almost 45% in just a couple of months. It has proven to be a lucrative opportunity, but it poses unexpected challenges to the individual investor. Using 4 different scenarios, he walks through why selling early might put some cash in your pocket but is counteractive to building wealth.Send us a text If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review RESOURCES: Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services. Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X
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Jul 15, 2022 • 27min

Selling Is Easy... But Can You Hold Like Ronald Read?

When the only streak in the market seems to be a losing one, it's easy to wonder if you should jump ship. Bear markets test the resolve of even the most seasoned investors. But the investors that achieve next-level success have unwavering faith in their strategy, standing strong regardless of market conditions. One of these exceptional investors is Ronald Read; a simple man, with a simple lifestyle, and a simple strategy. Yet, there was nothing simple about his discipline over the course of more than 70 years of market events.In this month's episode, Greg takes you through the complete story of Ronald Reed. You may not know his name now, but his story is one to remember when the going gets rough. He also takes a look at current market conditions and provides some brief updates on companies we have covered in past episodes.Send us a text If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review RESOURCES: Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services. Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X

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