The Dividend Mailbox®

Greg Denewiler
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May 17, 2024 • 43min

A Dividend Growth Buy, Watch, and Sell

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter! In today's episode, Greg dives into a practical application of our dividend growth strategy by discussing a recent buy, a watch, and a sell. He starts the episode with Hershey (HSY), exploring why this classic chocolate maker made it into our portfolio despite soaring cocoa prices. Although it may sound like a boring name,  companies like this can generate outsized long-term returns. For the watch candidate, Greg turns his attention to CVS Health (CVS). Despite its financial strength and attractive valuation, he discusses CVS's coming headwinds. Sometimes when there is a lot of negative sentiment surrounding a company, there is potential to make a lot of money. Lastly, Greg explains his decision to trim our position in Emerson Electric (EMR). Even though it is a long-time dividend growth stalwart and has seen strong price performance recently, it no longer meets our dividend growth criteria.Send us a textDisclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review RESOURCES: Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services. Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X
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5 snips
Apr 17, 2024 • 33min

Cash (Flow) Is King

Dive into the shift from dividend-focused investing to the modern obsession with stock price. Discover the crucial role of cash flows in valuing companies and enhancing investor goals. Explore Williams-Sonoma's impressive growth and whether now is the right time to cash in. Discuss the impact of share buybacks on overall returns and the necessity of diversified strategies in today's market. Gain insights on how understanding cash flow is essential for successful dividend investing.
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Mar 15, 2024 • 28min

Strategic Dividend Growth Exits: What to Consider

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!Check out our Union Pacific Investment ReportIn most cases, holding quality stocks for the long term tends to play out in favor of the investor. However, if a company’s prospects change, there are situations where exiting a position can be warranted. In this episode of The Dividend Mailbox, Greg outlines our decision-making process behind selling off a portion of our IBM position. What started as a turnaround play transformed into a potential value trap. Using IBM as an illustration, Greg provides insight into the complexities of owning dividend growth investments and taking advantage of opportunities to exit positions that don't meet your expectations. Plus, get a sneak peek into next month's episode featuring a success story with Williams Sonoma, highlighting the potential rewards of high-conviction investments in the dividend growth landscape.Send us a textDisclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review RESOURCES: Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services. Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X
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5 snips
Feb 24, 2024 • 29min

How Compounding Can Turn Underperfomers Into Big Winners

Explore the power of compounding through the insights of economist Jeremy Siegel. Discover how underperforming sectors can yield surprising returns over time. Learn about the contrasting performances of iconic companies like Standard Oil and IBM and how consistency beats flashiness. Gain strategic tips on managing your portfolio for maximum dividend growth and long-term success. Find out why slow and steady might just win the race in investing!
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4 snips
Jan 18, 2024 • 34min

Dividend Fuel: Chevron and an Ultimately Higher Oil Market

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!Check out our Union Pacific Investment ReportOver the past decade, the oil industry has become increasingly controversial and subsequently neglected by investors. No one knows when the industry's expiration date will come due, but there are great value and dividend growth investments to be made in the meantime. Even in declining industries, there can still be big winners. For episode 31, Greg focuses on Chevron's resilience in a politically incorrect landscape, including its recent Hess acquisition. He explores the intersection of environmental concerns and the indispensability of oil in everyday life, with investing as the backdrop. Despite the industry's challenges, he makes a compelling case for Chevron's sustainable dividend growth and long-term potential.Send us a textDisclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review RESOURCES: Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services. Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X
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Dec 21, 2023 • 33min

Are Dysfunctional Dividends Hiding In Your Portfolio?

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter! Check out our Union Pacific Investment ReportDo you feel confident that the dividends in your portfolio are healthy? What techniques can you use to get a clearer picture of a company's long-term dividend growth prospects? This month, Greg examines a simple 3 decision model from Aswath Damodaran to determine how companies create value for shareholders, and what it means for you as a dividend growth investor. He draws the line between companies that pay a healthy dividend and companies that are in a dysfunctional dividend mindset. As part of that, Greg gives you two simple models to employ when you're considering a company's dividend-paying capability. Later he takes a moment to discuss some of the wisdom of the late Charlie Munger.  Models used in today's Episode:ROIC Model - (Excel download) Excess Cash Flow Model - (Excel download)DCM Investment Reports & Models - (Website)Happy Holidays from The Dividend Mailbox!Send us a textDisclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review RESOURCES: Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services. Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X
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Nov 15, 2023 • 33min

Ignore the Siren Songs of the Market, Tie Yourself to the Mast

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!There is a huge difference between understanding compounding and actually understanding the numbers behind it. As a blanket term, compounding is thrown around in the investment arena often, yet few investors are actually patient enough to experience its full potential. Creating real wealth takes time, discipline, and strategy.In this episode, Greg uses our model portfolio to look at a couple of examples that expose just how significant your portfolio income can be when you have the discipline to let it grow. Moreover, he makes the case that income growth, rather than price growth, has a larger impact on the long-term value of your portfolio. Later, he likens the mindset of dividend growth investing to Odysseus's voyage.Send us a textDisclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review RESOURCES: Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services. Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X
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Oct 18, 2023 • 36min

UNP Deep Dive: A Growing Dividend Is Just Around the Bend

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!To most investors, big returns are associated with exciting stories or cutting-edge technology. Since everyone is in the market to make as much money as possible, “boring” companies can be easily dismissed without much second thought. That line of thinking is straightforward enough but it may be misguided. Truthfully, some of the better-performing companies out there are actually pretty boring. When it comes to achieving attractive returns, it is not what a company does that is important, it is how well they do it. In this episode, Greg embarks on a deep dive into Union Pacific Railroad ($UNP) and the broader railroad industry. He makes the case that railroads are extremely predictable, well run, and have provided investors with decades of market-beating returns. Railroads are probably not your first idea for building wealth, but these companies are cashflow-compounding machines. This episode is a little bit deeper than we have gone in the past, but it makes for a compelling story. Send us a textDisclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review RESOURCES: Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services. Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X
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Sep 20, 2023 • 29min

Are You an Intelligent Investor or a Smart Investor?

More on dividend growth investing  -> Join our market newsletter!Is there a difference between being intelligent and being smart? Most people would think of those concepts as one and the same. Although it may be abstract, these are two separate schools of thought entirely. You may go so far as to characterize intelligence as left-brain thinking, and smarts as right-brain reasoning. How does that apply to investing? If you’ve ever regretted an investment decision before, it may have been due to an overreliance on numbers, data, or rules, and not enough on vision.For our 27th episode, Greg takes a step back and examines a recent blog post from Morgan Housel. He starts out by contrasting intelligence vs. smarts, then uses several examples to show how it relates to investors. He applies this mindset to everything from analyzing America’s deficit problems, to honestly reflecting on his own thought process when he sold Intel ($INTC) several months ago. Greg wraps up the episode by introducing a new stock idea, United Pacific ($UNP), and sets the stage for a deeper dive next month.Links referenced in today’s episode are below:Morgan Housel's blog -> Intelligent vs. SmartGreg's newsletter on America's Debt and Deficits -> Debt, Denial, & Illusions: America Has a Spending ProblemSend us a textDisclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This episode is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. If you enjoy the show, we'd greatly appreciate it if you subscribe and leave a review RESOURCES: Schedule a meeting with us -> Financial Planning & Portfolio Management Getting into the weeds -> DCM Investment Reports & Models Visit our website to learn more about our investment strategy and wealth management services. Follow us on:Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X
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10 snips
Aug 17, 2023 • 35min

The Formula for Dividend Growth Investing

Dive into the world of dividend growth investing and discover a formula with seven key factors for identifying great opportunities. Learn how essential metrics like return on invested capital and management quality play a role in sustainable growth. The hosts analyze Dover Corporation, showcasing its dividend strengths while discussing potential challenges. They emphasize the importance of patience and discipline, reminding listeners that not every company fits the mold for ideal investments.

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