Global Macro Update

Manufacturing is returning to North America, thanks to automation, a greater focus on resiliency, and rising labor costs in China. This is a good thing, but it will require massive amounts of energy. Where will it come from? Mark Mills has some answers.

Will oil prices recover anytime soon? And what role should oil and gas stocks play in your portfolio? Get some answers from Piper Sandler global energy economist Jan Stuart, along with his thoughts on nuclear energy and China’s “giant Achilles heel.”

The narrative around oil is that a global supply glut and weak demand from China will continue to keep oil prices down. Bison Interests founder Josh Young tells a different story, filled with OPEC cheaters, nationalization undertones, and a much smaller global oil supply than people think.

Building resiliency, in part by decoupling the US economy from China’s, is essential to our long-term security. China is doing the same thing. Yet China’s export business is booming, and it dominates trade with other emerging markets. Is a communist nation beating us at capitalism?

Former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian highlights the $8 trillion private equity bubble, built on massive layers of debt, that poses a systemic threat to the entire financial system. Will we get another implosion like we had in 2008?

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the US and its allies froze over $58 billion in assets from Russian oligarchs and blocked major Russian banks from using the international payment system, known as SWIFT. Did we cross a line? Or did we cross it decades earlier in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks?

Is the age of plenty over? Economist Bill White says it ended with COVID. Now we’re moving into an age of scarcity—and it’s putting us at war. As Bill puts it, “We're in a war to preserve our market-based, capitalist, democratic system in an environment that is going to be very, very difficult to navigate.”

Martin Gurri, a former CIA analyst and author of The Revolt of the Public, reveals how 2001 marked a watershed moment in information generation. He discusses how information overload has fueled skepticism towards institutions, creating a crisis of trust and competing realities. Gurri explores the rise of populism and its cultural roots, analyzing political polarization in the U.S. under Trump and the effects of digital communication. He also reflects on the challenge of democracy versus authoritarianism, using Cuba as a case study for governance failures.

Dmitri Alperovitch, founder of CrowdStrike and a prominent cybersecurity expert, discusses the unsettling prospect of a 'Cold War II' with China. He predicts that a conflict could ignite with a Taiwan invasion, crucial for China's control over the South China Sea. Alperovitch explores Taiwan's strategic significance, the technological race between the U.S. and China, and the geopolitical dynamics involving Russia. He warns of the urgent need for robust U.S. deterrence and highlights the challenges and opportunities in tech innovation.

We’re entering the golden age of macro investing says Harris Kupperman, the founder of Praetorian Capital, but it won’t be fun for everyone. As the world unravels, thanks to runaway government debt and even more inflation, it will create exceptional opportunities for strategically positioned macro investors.