Felix Zulauf, a renowned expert in global macroeconomics, discusses the transitioning world order impacting investments through 2025. He delves into the implications of Trump tariffs and the rise of deglobalization, state capitalism, and nationalism. Listeners will gain insights into market cycles influenced by innovation, particularly AI, and the looming financial challenges ahead, such as the debt ceiling. Zulauf highlights investment opportunities in commodities and real estate, while stressing the importance of risk management in an evolving economic landscape.
Understanding the shift towards nationalism and state capitalism is crucial for adapting investment strategies in a changing world order.
Investing in commodities like gold and oil is essential, especially considering potential geopolitical tensions and financial instability moving into 2025.
Deep dives
Long-Term Investing Strategy
The investor employs a long-term strategy that emphasizes understanding secular trends before focusing on shorter-term cycles. By analyzing major economic regions like the U.S., China, and Europe, insights are gleaned on potential policy changes and their impacts on capital flows and asset prices. This approach also incorporates intermediate trends and trading swings, enabling the investor to navigate market dynamics effectively. Ultimately, the focus lies on adapting to where market influences are heading rather than where they currently stand.
Global Geopolitical Shifts
Significant shifts are occurring in geopolitics, marking the decline of the U.S.-centric world order and the rise of nationalism and regionalism. This transition is characterized by countries striving to minimize risks associated with global supply chains, resulting in a movement towards state capitalism. The repercussions of these trends could influence investment decisions, as governments may mandate investments in local economies, thereby affecting capital allocation strategies. The investor notes how historical precedents suggest that such transitions can impede free market dynamics and distort conventional business cycles.
Economic Outlook and Market Dynamics
The current economic landscape is divided, with the U.S. showing signs of strength while Europe and China face significant challenges. Employment trends in the U.S. indicate a unique situation where labor supply is not meeting demand, helping sustain economic growth and delaying a potential recession. However, warnings about market valuations and possible corrections loom, with tariffs and geopolitical tensions threatening to create volatility in the financial markets. The investor suggests that the combination of these factors may lead to a strong market performance into 2025, followed by a potential downturn.
Investment Strategies in Commodities
As the investment landscape evolves, commodities like gold and oil are highlighted as key areas of focus. The strength of gold is tied to the potential debasement of fiat currencies, making it an essential insurance asset during times of financial instability. Oil demand is expected to persist despite green energy initiatives, as inadequate investment in fossil fuel production threatens future supply shortages. The investor anticipates that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could spike oil prices significantly, reinforcing the need for strategic positioning in commodity investments.
Felix Zulauf says “We're moving away from the world we come from.” He’s back again to discuss the Trump tariffs, deglobalization, and the slide toward “state capitalism.” Listen in to learn where to invest in 2025 to benefit from the changing world order.
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