Global Macro Update

Jacob Shapiro, director of geopolitical research at the Bespoke Group, dives into the complexities of the AI arms race and its implications for the U.S. and China. He discusses how China's focus on practical AI outpaces U.S. innovation, influenced by its centralized planning and ruthless capitalism. Jacob also explores Mexico's potential as a manufacturing hub amid U.S.-Mexico relations affected by drug cartels. He argues that understanding macro forces is crucial to navigating these geopolitics, making for a thought-provoking conversation.

There's a pattern with Dr. Ed Yardeni's predictions: he's usually right. Today, Dr. Ed explains AI's impact on the labor market, how boomers are propping up consumer spending, and what the Fed should do next. You'll also hear his take on China, rising gold prices, and the Mag 7 by listening now.

Barry Habib, founder of MBS Highway and a leading mortgage expert, passionately discusses how homeowners often have 40 times the net worth of renters. He shares insights on mortgage rates potentially dropping below 6% and warns of the supply-demand issues plaguing the housing market. Habib also delves into AI's looming threat to job security and its implications for homeownership. Additionally, he sheds light on the challenges young buyers face in an evolving job market and the complexities of real estate as a vehicle for generational wealth.

Large-cap growth has been on fire for 15 years, but that streak may finally be coming to a close. As Big Tech's summer rally fizzles out, small-cap value stocks are showing signs of life.  In this interview, Jared Dillian breaks down the concept of a "style-box rotation," explaining why small-cap value may be poised for a powerful turnaround.

"Anytime Trump says something, it is harmful to my positions." For commodities trader Jared Dillian, the spring tariff meltdown broke the market for good. And we may be due for a second tariff-driven sell-off this fall.

The simultaneous sell-off of stocks, bonds, and US dollar is a big deal. Brent Donnelly from Spectra Markets explains how broken trust has left permanent scars on US trade policy: "Once an action has been taken, you can remove the action, but then there's still going to be some damage."

All trade wars have a currency effect, but what happens when nations drive down their currencies to counter US tariffs? John Mauldin explains why he doesn't believe China is using US treasuries as a weapon—and where the trade war will hurt most.

There's no substitute for experience. That was evident this week in the markets. While most people were confused or frozen, at least one investor (our old friend Jared) was making money after spending the past few months positioning himself for a week like this one. Part of his strategy involves using options, but not for speculation…

Private equity is buying up America—everything from nursing homes to the local plumbing business. Some are calling it a bubble, with the value of global private equity deals reaching $2 trillion in 2024. Brendan Ballou, author of the new book Plunder, says the real trouble with PE comes from weak regulations that incentivize bad decisions.

Modern history is rife with examples of wars that grind on needlessly, only to end with no clear winner. There is a risk this will happen with Ukraine, though President Trump is eager to force a settlement. BCA Research Chief Strategist Marko Papic joins us to unpack what happens next.