Global Macro Update

Everyone worries AI will take their job. Steve Lord thinks we'll hit a bigger wall first: power. Lord is COO of Burkland Associates, which works with Andreessen Horowitz and dozens of other top VC firms. Hear about the infrastructure bottleneck facing AI, what went wrong with crypto's original promise, and Lord's advice for founders trying to raise capital in today's market.

CrossBorder Capital founder Michael Howell built his framework for tracking global liquidity while at Salomon Brothers. His central thesis: the ratio between debt and liquidity predicts financial crises and asset bubbles. Howell explains why the $350 trillion global debt pile requires $70 trillion in annual refinancing, how ZIRP created the "everything bubble," and what happens when the bill comes due.

While the Fear and Greed Index just hit "Extreme Fear" territory, Spectra Markets president Brent Donnelly says we're in more of a rotation than a panic. Brent and I talk about the AI trade—why Meta's earnings marked a shift, whether OpenAI's $500 billion valuation is defensible, and why 65% of respondents would short it. Plus, why Buffett just bet on Google.

Bruce Mehlman unpacks the government shutdown, the recent Democratic sweep, and the AI bubble. Then he pulls out his crystal ball for the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential predictions.

Everyone is wondering if we're in another tech bubble. There's a mad rush to invest in AI, and tech companies are breaking valuation records, with Nvidia leading the charge. My friend Jared Dillian believes we're back in 1997/98. Hear why on today's episode.

Jacob Shapiro, director of geopolitical research at the Bespoke Group, dives into the complexities of the AI arms race and its implications for the U.S. and China. He discusses how China's focus on practical AI outpaces U.S. innovation, influenced by its centralized planning and ruthless capitalism. Jacob also explores Mexico's potential as a manufacturing hub amid U.S.-Mexico relations affected by drug cartels. He argues that understanding macro forces is crucial to navigating these geopolitics, making for a thought-provoking conversation.

There's a pattern with Dr. Ed Yardeni's predictions: he's usually right. Today, Dr. Ed explains AI's impact on the labor market, how boomers are propping up consumer spending, and what the Fed should do next. You'll also hear his take on China, rising gold prices, and the Mag 7 by listening now.

Barry Habib, founder of MBS Highway and a leading mortgage expert, passionately discusses how homeowners often have 40 times the net worth of renters. He shares insights on mortgage rates potentially dropping below 6% and warns of the supply-demand issues plaguing the housing market. Habib also delves into AI's looming threat to job security and its implications for homeownership. Additionally, he sheds light on the challenges young buyers face in an evolving job market and the complexities of real estate as a vehicle for generational wealth.

Large-cap growth has been on fire for 15 years, but that streak may finally be coming to a close. As Big Tech's summer rally fizzles out, small-cap value stocks are showing signs of life. In this interview, Jared Dillian breaks down the concept of a "style-box rotation," explaining why small-cap value may be poised for a powerful turnaround.

"Anytime Trump says something, it is harmful to my positions." For commodities trader Jared Dillian, the spring tariff meltdown broke the market for good. And we may be due for a second tariff-driven sell-off this fall.