The Numbers

There’s one week to go before Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government tables the budget. We still don’t know if it will pass a vote in the House of Commons. Failing to do so would mean another election. Should Pierre Poilievre welcome a second campaign in 2025, or should he and his Conservatives prefer to put that contest off to another day? And what about the Bloc Québécois and the New Democrats?This week on The Numbers, we rate how much each party should want to head back to the polls this fall. We also take a look at a new poll that suggests the B.C. Conservatives are doing far better among voters than is their leader, John Rustad, plus we chat about the end of the fixed election date law in Ontario. Finally, Philippe has a Quiz to mark the 30th anniversary of the 1995 Quebec referendum.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.This episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The discussion heats up around Pierre Poilievre's leadership as Dimitri Soudas voices concerns about party unity. Polling data reveals mixed feelings among Conservative supporters, prompting a debate on how Poilievre's style might affect his electability. Insights into Canada-U.S. relations also emerge, especially regarding trade negotiations and public opinion on Trump’s influence. Additionally, the podcast reviews municipal election results in Calgary and Edmonton, highlighting polling accuracy in these races and trends across provincial support in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia.

The polls continue to show a narrow, but diminishing, advantage for Mark Carney’s Liberals. But the polls also show that Canadians hold some complicated, and at terms contradictory, views when it comes to the United States and the prime minister’s relationship with Donald Trump. It’s a delicate balancing act for Carney — one that could easily go badly for the Liberals if they risked (or were forced into) an election in the fall.The week on The Numbers, we talk about the federal polling landscape and what it shows about Canadians’ views on our relations with the United States. We also take one last look at the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election, as well as what the polls are showing ahead of next week’s mayoral elections in Calgary and Edmonton. Then, we close with a Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscriptionThis episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

For most of the four years between 2019 and 2023, the Liberals and Conservatives were deadlocked in the polls with each party hovering a little over 30%, give or take a few points. Then the bottom fell out for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. But are we entering into another phase of a deadlocked, polarized electorate — this time with Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives both stuck around 40%?This week on The Numbers, we discuss what could be the new normal. Plus, the NDP gets an interesting new entrant into its leadership race and the government announces a change to the budgeting schedule that could have some repercussions for the electoral calendar. In New Brunswick, the PCs hold one of their seats in a provincial byelection, while in Newfoundland and Labrador we’re only one week out election day. Where do things stand there? We also discuss some new polling numbers from Quebec and British Columbia, where David Eby seems to be benefiting from a divided (and infighting) opposition.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Carney seems to be more popular than his Liberals, while Pierre Poilievre seems to be less popular than his Conservatives. Are these numbers sustainable for either party leader — and what would it mean if these numbers held going into an election campaign? Plus, what to make of the NDP’s better polls as the party’s leadership campaign takes off?This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest in federal polling trends. We also chat about the ongoing (but still unpolled) campaign in Newfoundland and Labrador, some surprising polling numbers out of Alberta and some less surprising numbers out of municipal races in Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal and Quebec City (a well as in Ontario). Then, Philippe is back with a new edition of The Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Leadership reviews are under the microscope as party leaders face fluctuating scores. Bonnie Crombie’s disappointing 57% leads to discussion on what numbers are deemed acceptable for survival in leadership roles. Pierre Poilievre's crucial upcoming review score is examined, alongside insights into Marit Stiles and John Rustad's decisions to remain. The hosts delve into federal polling, the NDP leadership race dynamics, and the political landscape in Quebec, Manitoba, and Nova Scotia, all while testing each other's knowledge in a fun quiz!

The MPs are back in Ottawa and already the big question on Parliament Hill is whether or not the government will survive the budget vote later this fall. Just a few seats short of a majority, Mark Carney’s Liberals still require the support (or abstention) of at least one other party in the House of Commons. Do any of those parties have an incentive to go back to the polls sooner rather than later?This week on The Numbers, we break down the current state of the polls and what they say about the stability of this Parliament. We also discuss the newly-launched Newfoundland and Labrador election campaign, Bonnie Crombie’s resignation as leader of the Ontario Liberals and some provincial polling numbers from coast to coast.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Parliamentarians return to Ottawa next week for what will be the first showdown between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in the House of Commons. It’ll be the official kick-off for the fall political season. Who will come out on top?This week on The Numbers, after delving into the latest poll numbers we play a little game of “buy or sell” — buying the parties and leaders we think will end the season higher in the polls than where they are today, and selling those we think could end up in a worse spot.Plus, we also chat about an upcoming provincial byelection in New Brunswick and break down the latest goings-on in Quebec, where Premier François Legault’s government is up against the ropes as a new poll shows the CAQ at rock bottom.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.This episode is available on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The first two serious contenders for the federal NDP leadership have emerged in Heather McPherson and Avi Lewis, according to recent reporting. But the challenge they have ahead of them to rehabilitate the ailing New Democratic Party is enormous. Could the path laid out by Manitoba’s Wab Kinew be the answer?This week on The Numbers, we discuss where the NDP goes from here as its leadership race officially begins. We also chat about whether we’re seeing any corroboration of last week’s polling numbers that showed some Liberal slippage, plus the potential for a couple of federal byelections in the next few months. Then, we break down the results of the Spruce Woods byelection in Manitoba, where the incumbent PCs were nearly upset in a safe riding. Plus, new poll numbers in Ontario disagree on where Doug Ford stands — is he in a dominant position, or just a really good one? Finally, Philippe ups the ante with another Quiz.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is Mark Carney’s honeymoon in danger of coming to an end? A new poll from Abacus Data suggests the Liberals might have lost some steam for the first time since the April election. What to make of these new numbers that put the Conservatives marginally ahead?This week on The Numbers, we take a look at this new poll — and a few others that muddy the waters, including some not-so-strong numbers for Pierre Poilievre nationwide. We also discuss the upcoming (second) resignation of Green leader Elizabeth May and a new poll that puts the Parti Québécois in the driver’s seat ahead of the 2026 Quebec election. We close with a prime ministerial Quiz from Philippe.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.