Global Data Pod

Bruce Kasman and Jay Barry discuss how the Fed met their expectations for a 50bp rate cut as it shifted its assessment of risk while not materially adjusting its growth or inflation forecasts. Markets showed a continued steepening in the US curve but the rise in longer-term yields suggests that this is aligned with greater confidence in the Fed engineering a sustained expansion. This podcast was recorded on 9/20/2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

This week’s discussion brings the Federal Reserve into the spotlight with expectations of a significant rate cut. Participants analyze contrasting economic narratives between the U.S. and Europe, highlighting differing recession risks. Energy and shipping price trends are explored for their impact on consumer spending. Global inflation dynamics are dissected, especially with the U.S. and Europe experiencing different price pressures. Finally, the Bank of Japan's shift in monetary policy is scrutinized, revealing its impact on the economic outlook.

Speakers Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research  Steven Palacio, EM, Economics Research   EM Edge economies have seen improvements in their fundamentals with only limited exceptions. We have also seen better growth and fiscal consolidation in primary balances, mainly in Africa. IMF programs have helped along the way with both reforms and funding. Despite these trends and against a more favorable global backdrop relative to 2022 and 2023, rating changes have been mixed. Katherine Marney, Steven Palacio and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent rating trends across the all regions.     This podcast was recorded on 10 September 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4778639-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

Explore the resilience of global economic expansion amidst mixed signals. The U.S. leads recovery, but labor market shifts suggest growth risks. The forecast hints at potential Fed cuts by year-end, with the ECB also expected to adjust rates. Delve into the complexities of the job market and its implications for recession risks. Discover how inflation trends and corporate profits shape consumer spending and influence future monetary policies.

Join Chief US Economist Michael Feroli and financial communications expert Samantha Azzarello as they dive into the August jobs report. They discuss the implications of sluggish job growth and rising unemployment rates on the labor market and consumer behavior. The duo also explores the anticipated GDP slowdown and its potential impact on Federal Reserve policies. Tune in for key insights that could shape investment strategies in an evolving economic landscape!

Nora Szentivanyi, Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the July CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and  monetary policy. Global inflation remains sticky at 3% with a 0.3% monthly core CPI gain in July. But a regional rotation is under way in which a greater easing in labor cost pressures and goods price declines are producing a pronounced slide in US core inflation. While US core CPI inflation eased to just 1.6%ar in the three months to July, Euro area core HICP rose at a 3.5%ar and EM core inflation (ex China, Turkiye and Russia)  reaccelerated close to 4%.   This podcast was recorded on Aug 22, 2024. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Bruce Kasman, a leading expert in economic analysis and forecasting, dives into the evolving economic landscape with insights that matter. He discusses the fading recession risks attributed to strong U.S. consumer activity and the impact of recent CPI data. The conversation highlights stark global discrepancies, with the U.S. thriving while Europe and China struggle. Kasman further unpacks risks in the manufacturing sector and anticipates important shifts in the upcoming flash PMIs. This engaging dialogue sheds light on the balancing act for the Federal Reserve amid global economic challenges.

Haibin Zhu, a prominent authority on China's economic policy, joins to explore the nation's mounting economic challenges. Disappointing activity data has led to a reduced GDP growth forecast of 4.6%, sparking discussions about the difficulties of maintaining growth targets. Zhu highlights entrenched deflation and a struggling housing market, where past strategies now falter. The podcast also delves into the complexities of private investment amidst regulatory shifts and the impact of declining exports on both local and global economies.

Bruce Kasman, a financial markets expert, teams up with Joe Lupton, a near-term economic analyst, to dissect a week of market volatility. They delve into the implications of rising downside growth risks and the Federal Reserve's likely easing strategies, driven by strong labor supply figures not seen elsewhere. The duo compares the U.S. economic landscape favorably against Europe, tackling trends in payrolls and recession fears. They also touch on Japan's resilient economy and the global manufacturing signals impacting the U.S.

Sajjid Chinoy and Seok Gil Park join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the implications of a more front-loaded Fed easing path for EM Asia. Soft core inflation in EM Asia ordinarily would call for a reversal of some of the monetary policy tightening of the last few years. Yet policy has been constrained in several cases by low interest-rate differentials versus the US and concerns over financial stability. Against this backdrop, a Fed that cuts more rapidly to neutral opens up much-needed space for EM Asian central banks to respond more fully to domestic growth-inflation dynamics. The scale of the response is likely to be bifurcated across the region. We see greater scope for additional cuts in India, Indonesia, and China. The case is less compelling in Taiwan and Korea because the output gap has closed in the former and  domestic financial stability considerations are weighing on easing in the latter.   This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4763678-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4766359-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.