Global Data Pod

Economist Bruce Kasman and professional Joseph Lupton discuss moderating global expansion with strong underlying support. They highlight US retail sales and manufacturing reports, caution on immaculate disinflation, and address disappointing China spending data as a domestic issue. Topics include consumer spending trends, global economic dependence, manufacturing dynamics, inflation analysis, and concerns over China's GDP growth and domestic demand.

Economic experts Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton discuss moderating inflation, potential rate cuts, and growth confidence. They delve into global inflation trends, central bank policies, labor market pressures, and equity market outlook. The podcast also touches on China's economic challenges and upcoming data releases.

The podcast discusses global PMIs, US payroll reports, potential rate cuts, inflation concerns, and the impact of political uncertainties on the economy. It also covers central banks' easing cycles, private payrolls momentum, global economic indicators, challenges faced in Europe and emerging markets, and the sensitivity of economies to market jitters and fiscal constraints.

The overall performance of the global economy has aligned with our forecast in 1H24 as the growth base has broadened, inflation has proven sticky and central banks cautious. However, momentum shifts into midyear raise new questions about what lies ahead. We believe that the course of the global expansion – and policy rates – is centrally linked to the willingness of a business sector with still high margins, but facing sluggish profit growth and high borrowing costs, to expand. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 28 June 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the latest global inflation report.     This podcast was recorded on June 26, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4731978-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Vinicius Moreira and Tingting Ge join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss how the shift in China’s commodity imports away from the US have benefitted key commodity producers such as Brazil. Since the 2018 trade war, Brazil’s share in China’s imports has been growing, especially relative to the US performance. On the top of that, China has been importing commodities beyond what the domestic fundamentals would indicate. These factors are helping to keep demand for Brazilian products elevated, creating incentives for the local production, and making the trade surplus wider than otherwise it would have been.   This podcast was recorded on June 26, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4725128-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

After a consequential week on inflation, this week focuses on growth tracking. Global IP is on track for a bounce this quarter, as expected, but a softening in consumer goods spending raises some concern about sustainability. So too does a disappointing set of June flash PMIs. On balance, however, we still see solid support for an expansion that is already expected to moderate into the second half. Speakers: Joseph Lupton Nora Szentivanyi This podcast was recorded on 21 June 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Economist Bruce Kasman and financial expert Joseph Lupton discuss the Fed's cautious optimism amidst soft inflation data. Topics include rate cutting cycles, economic indicators, long-term forecasts, and the Fed's influence on market expectations.

After a month of data tilting a bit softer, this week’s news reaffirmed the resilience in the global expansion. A strong set of PMIs were capped off by a strong US payroll report. With fading fears on growth, central banks are left questioning the pace of cuts. The ECB and BoC both eased this week but were more cautious looking forward. Next week’s Fed should deliver caution as well with an adjustment up in the 2024 dots and possibly in 2025. This podcast was recorded on 7 June 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Economist Michael Feroli and Content Strategist Samantha Azzarello discuss the May jobs report, highlighting diverging trends in establishment vs household surveys. They analyze wage growth, inflation implications, and speculate on future Fed policies, emphasizing the complexity of the current labor market.