Breaking the Mould: India’s Untraveled Path to Prosperity is a big new book by the economists Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba. The book is both a critique of India’s development model as well as a manifesto for reform. Most notably, it challenges the conventional wisdom that India’s primary goal should be to transform the country into a blue-collar manufacturing powerhouse. Rajan and Lamba argue that India cannot duplicate China’s development model, but it has the opportunity to leapfrog by focusing higher up the value chain. To discuss the book’s ideas and its policy implications, Milan is joined on the show this week by Rohit Lamba. Rohit is an economist at New York University-Abu Dhabi and will soon be joining the Economics Department at Cornell University. He’s twice worked in the chief economic advisor’s office in the Indian Ministry of Finance. The two discuss what the critics get right about the Indian economy, why India cannot blindly follow the Chinese model, and how India can pivot “from brawn to brain.” Plus, Rohit and Milan discuss the manufacturing versus services debate, India’s inward economic turn, and what India must do to upgrade its human capital.

Episode notes:1. Rahul Bhattacharya, “Rahul Gandhi is on the march. But where is he heading?” 1843 Magazine, May 2, 2024.2. Samanth Subramanian, “multi-storied,” Substack newsletter.3. Bhagi Siva and Samanth Subramanian, “What it takes to live near an elephant herd,” Washington Post, January 21, 2024.4. Samanth Subramanian, “When the Hindu Right Came for Bollywood,” New Yorker, October 10, 2022.5. Samanth Subramanian, “How Hindu supremacists are tearing India apart,” Guardian, February 20, 2020.

1. Smriti Kak Ramachandran, “Lok Sabha polls: BJP announces new candidate for Ladakh,” Hindustan Times, April 23, 2024.2. Smriti Kak Ramachandran, “No changes to constitution, assures PM,” Hindustan Times, April 22, 2024.3. Smriti Kak Ramachandran, “Odisha gives BJP sleepless nights,” Hindustan Times, April 18, 2024.4. Smriti Kak Ramachandran, “Lok Sabha election manifestos: Modi’s Guarantee, Congress’s NYAY,” Hindustan Times, April 16, 2024.5. Smriti Kak Ramachandran, “String of new BJP entrants puts focus on headhunter,” Hindustan Times, April 16, 2024.6. Smriti Kak Ramachandran, “BJP Lok Sabha poll manifesto: A mix of welfare politics, ideological causes,” Hindustan Times, April 14, 2024.7. “Previewing India's 2024 General Election (with Sukumar Ranganathan),” Grand Tamasha, April 17, 2024.8. Pratap Bhanu Mehta, “Why voters’ silence is making the BJP nervous,” Indian Express, April 24, 2024.

Expert on poverty and inequality in India, Maitreesh Ghatak, dives into the complexities of poverty decline in India, analyzing government consumption survey data transparency issues, the unique path to poverty reduction, and the intricate relationship between inequality, poverty, and growth in the country.

Milan Vaishnav, “On electoral bonds, a short-lived celebration,” Hindustan Times, February 17, 2024.“Decoding the Indian Economy (with Pranjul Bhandari)” Grand Tamasha, April 3, 2024.Sukumar Ranganathan, “Five Things with @HT_Ed,” Hindustan Times (newsletter).Hindustan Times, General Elections Retrospective (accessed via the HT app).

Ankit Panda, Indo-Pacific Missile Arsenals specialist, discusses India's recent missile test, mastering MIRV technology, rising missile arsenals in the region, China's perceptions of India, India's defense relationships with Russia and the U.S., and the potential partnerships between India and post-war Russia.

Economists Mohamed El-Erian, Michael Spence, and Pranjul Bhandari discuss India's economy, covering topics like inflation dynamics, RBI strategies, budget analysis, FDI decline, services vs. manufacturing debate, and fiscal deficit challenges. Insights on GDP growth rates, global dynamics, and economic outlook for India provided.

1. “What’s Happening to India’s Rohingya Refugees? (with Priyali Sur and Daniel Sullivan),” Grand Tamasha, May 24, 2023.2. Mohsin Alam Bhat and Aashish Yadav, “CAA will not help persecuted Hindus, Sikhs from neighbouring countries,” Indian Express, March 19, 2024.3. “The Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2019,” PRS Legislative Research.4. Madhav Khosla and Milan Vaishnav, “The Three Faces of the Indian State,” Journal of Democracy 32, no. 1 (2021): 111-125.5. Mohsin Alam Bhat, “The Constitutional Case Against the Citizenship Amendment Bill,” Economic and Political Weekly 54, no.3 (2019): 12-14.6. Mohsin Alam Bhat, “‘The Irregular’ and the Unmaking of Minority Citizenship: The Rules of Law in Majoritarian India,” Queen Mary Law Research Paper No. 395/2022.7. Niraja Gopal Jayal, “Faith-based Citizenship,” The India Forum, October 31, 2019.

Episode notes:Sidharth Bhatia, “An Eating and Drinking Tour of India, With Some Misadventures Along the Way,” The Wire, July 8, 2023.Zac O’Yeah, “A culinary trip across Southeast Asia,” Indian Express, January 6, 2024.

Devesh Kapur, Chandra Bhan Prasad, Lant Pritchett, and D. Shyam Babu, “Rethinking Inequality: Dalits in Uttar Pradesh in the Market Reform Era,” Economic and Political Weekly 45, no. 35 (August 28-September 3, 2010): 39-49.Devesh Kapur, Chandra Bhan Prasad, and D. Shyam Babu, Defying the Odds: The Rise of Dalit Entrepreneurs (New Delhi: Vintage, 2014).D. Shyam Babu, “From empowerment to disenfranchisement: Lower caste mobilisation appears to have run its course,” Times of India, August 28, 2019.Chandra Bhan Prasad, “Fellow Dalits, open your own bank: If no one else, Dalit middle class can fund Dalit capitalism to produce Dalit billionaires,” Times of India, November 25, 2019.Devesh Kapur, “Fraternity in the making of the Indian nation,” Seminar 701 (2017).