Redefining Energy - TECH

Michael Barnard concludes his conversation with John Fitzgerald, CEO of Supernode. They explore the game-changing potential of superconducting transmission technology. Superconductors, capable of carrying electricity with zero resistance at extremely low temperatures, are already used in applications like MRI machines and are now poised to revolutionize urban power distribution.Fitzgerald highlights advances in cryogenic systems, such as smooth bore cryostats, which allow cables to run three times longer between cooling stations, reducing infrastructure needs and enhancing efficiency. The episode spotlights projects like Munich’s upcoming 12-15 km superconducting power cable, which will transfer more power using less space, offering a cost-competitive solution for urban energy demands. Fitzgerald also underscores the importance of developing a European super grid and anticipatory investments in high-capacity power corridors to address growing renewable energy integration and reduce curtailment. He contrasts Europe’s efforts with rapid grid advancements in India and China, emphasizing the need for proactive planning and investment.Looking ahead, Supernode aims to commercialize its technology by the end of the decade. Fitzgerald calls on policymakers, utilities, and system operators to bridge gaps in energy infrastructure, establish partnerships, and secure funding to promote innovative transmission solutions for a sustainable future.

Michael Barnard invites John Fitzgerald, the CEO of Supernode. John delves into the transformative potential of energy transmission technologies and the critical role of interconnectors in shaping the future of renewable energy. Drawing from his extensive background in engineering and utility management, Fitzgerald recounts his journey in the energy sector, which includes developing power stations, trading over interconnectors, and spearheading the East West Interconnector project between Ireland and the UK. His leadership at Supernode reflects his commitment to advancing superconducting transmission technology as a solution to modern energy challenges.Fitzgerald discusses the inherent limitations of alternating current (AC) transmission, particularly for underground and underwater cables, and highlights the advantages of direct current (DC) technology for long-distance energy distribution. He explains the technical intricacies of DC systems, including their capacity to manage inertia and integrate non-synchronous renewable energy. Throughout the episode, Fitzgerald emphasizes the need to address public consultation challenges in infrastructure projects to ensure the successful deployment of energy transmission networks.A central theme of the conversation is the evolving role of interconnectors. Once primarily used to exploit price differences between energy markets, interconnectors are now crucial for balancing variable renewable energy across regions. Fitzgerald explores the immense potential of continental-scale grids in Europe and advocates for tripling grid capacity to meet future energy demands. He also highlights groundbreaking projects like Sun Cable, which aims to connect Australia to Singapore, and the NATO-L project, which envisions transatlantic power transmission, underscoring the benefits of intercontinental energy connectivity for enhancing energy security.The episode concludes with a forward-looking perspective on the energy transition. Fitzgerald calls for greater investment in HVDC technology, praises China's advancements in this area, and urges listeners to stay informed about opportunities to integrate renewables through interconnectors. By fostering interconnected grids, he argues, the global energy landscape can achieve greater efficiency, resilience, and sustainability.

In this second part of the episode, Michael Raynor and Michael Barnard offer an in-depth analysis of the comparison between hydrogen fuel cell and battery electric buses, focusing on key findings and discrepancies in a recent CUTRIC study. Barnard critically examines issues related to replacement cycles, carbon pricing, refuelling facilities and individual bus complexity. He highlights the study’s failure to account for technological advancements in batteries, such as decreasing costs and improving lifespans, which position battery electric buses as a more sustainable and cost-effective solution.  Raynor digs into financial projections and the challenges of managing multiple bus technologies in transit systems like Brampton’s. He applies his expertise related to scenario-based planning, gained in his Harvard DBA and published in his 2007 book, The Strategy Paradox, pointing out flaws in CUTRIC’s use of point estimates without error bars. Raynor notes the complexity involved in maintaining hydrogen buses, both in terms of infrastructure and organizational demands, compared to simpler battery systems. He raises concerns about Brampton’s decision to move forward with a potentially expensive and inefficient hydrogen pilot, citing a $1.1 billion discrepancy caused by timing assumptions in hydrogen bus deployment.  Raynor also explores how the study’s reliance on discounting future costs skews financial comparisons between the two technologies. He discusses the need for carbon emissions to be integrated into transit planning decisions and contrasts CUTRIC’s analysis with the EU’s more sophisticated approach to carbon pricing.  The episode concludes with Raynor’s personal reflection on the difficulties of tackling climate challenges while underscoring the importance of rigorous evaluation processes in transit planning. Raynor and Barnard call for Brampton’s transit proposals to undergo third-party reviews and improved quality control to ensure transparency and better decision-making.

In this episode, host Michael Barnard engages in an enlightening conversation with Michael Raynor, co-author of The Innovator’s Solution and an expert in carbon reduction strategies. Raynor shares his personal journey into sustainability, the evolution of his focus on decarbonization, and his current work developing innovative solutions for addressing corporate carbon challenges. A key topic in the discussion is the Raynor’s new firm, S3 Markets, which emphasizes the need to decarbonize upstream commodities to meet net zero commitments. Rayner highlights the difficulty corporations face in managing Scope 3 emissions and suggests shifting from traditional carbon offsets to “insets,” where companies pool small investments to make a meaningful impact. This approach targets the 80-90 high-emission commodities responsible for the bulk of industrial emissions, which make up 15% of global GDP.The conversation takes a practical turn as Raynor discusses Mississauga’s hydrogen bus pilot program. He recounts how he identified potential issues with the initiative and reached out directly to the city’s mayor and council. His insights led to an invitation to present his findings to the Mississauga City Council on October 30th. The conversation turns to Barnard’s dive into the CUTRIC (Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium) in advancing urban transit decarbonization through research and policy recommendations, as well as some red flags.Barnard and Raynor explore the financial and environmental trade-offs between hydrogen and battery-electric buses. Barnard provides a critical analysis of data from California and the EU’s JIVE program, showing that hydrogen buses come with significant costs for refuelling infrastructure and maintenance. Comparatively, for the cost of five hydrogen buses, municipalities could procure twelve battery-electric buses, making the latter more attractive both financially and environmentally.The episode wraps up with a closer look at CUTRIC’s recent report for Brampton, where Barnard identifies questionable assumptions about hydrogen system costs. One factor alone, the cost assumption for gray hydrogen could have a $200 million swing, dwarfing the $10 million variance called out justifying a blended hydrogen + battery electric fleet instead of a battery electric only fleet.Raynor examines the varying carbon costs of different hydrogen types—gray, blue, and green—and emphasizes the importance of carefully choosing technologies based on actual benefits. The battery-electric buses offer superior emissions reduction per dollar spent. 

Rob Jackson, Chair of the Global Carbon Project and author, dives into the methane crisis and its dire implications for climate change. He reveals that human activities contribute two-thirds of methane emissions, primarily from agriculture and fossil fuels. Jackson discusses innovative solutions such as transitioning to electric appliances and improving practices in oil and gas. He emphasizes the urgent need for regulatory changes and highlights promising strategies in agriculture, including reducing livestock methane through feed additives. The holistic approach links methane reduction to enhanced public health and climate benefits.

Rob Jackson, Chair of the Global Carbon Project and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute, tackles the urgent issue of methane emissions, revealing that it's 80-90 times more effective than CO2 at trapping heat in its early years. He uncovers health risks from gas stoves and discusses how methane leaks throughout the natural gas supply chain challenge its 'clean' label. Jackson also highlights the technological advancements in detecting methane super-emitters but warns of difficulties in identifying smaller leaks, stressing the need for immediate action.

In Episode 36 of the "Redefining Energy" series, host Michael Barnard engages Michele Wucker in a nuanced discussion about the complex nature of risk, focusing on the distinction between risk profiles and risk fingerprints.These fingerprints, shaped by an individual's inherent traits, experiences, and environmental influences, are crucial in understanding how people and organizations perceive and manage risks.The conversation emphasizes climate change as a significant "gray rhino" that requires strategic, rather than merely tactical, responses. Wucker examines the fossil fuel industry's risk perceptions, considering the potential for these companies to transition into the clean energy sector and exploring the implications of peak oil demand.The episode also addresses the evolving risk landscape in the wake of COVID-19, highlighting the importance of shared responsibility between individuals and corporations in reducing carbon footprints and adopting sustainable practices. Wucker underscores the need for collaborative efforts and the role of governments in shaping behaviors through policies and incentives. In the final segment, the discussion turns to the equitable distribution of risks and benefits in policy-making, particularly concerning independent workers.The episode advocates for improved systems to support these workers and stresses the importance of understanding personal risk decisions and their broader impact on society.    

Michele Wucker, author of *The Gray Rhino* and *You Are What You Risk*, dives into the concept of gray rhinos—obvious yet overlooked risks—especially focusing on climate change. She draws comparisons between gray rhinos and black swans, emphasizing the urgent need to address impending threats. Wucker discusses the societal factors affecting our perception of risk and how cultural differences shape responses. She also reflects on the pandemic as a gray rhino, highlighting the lessons learned for future preparedness.

In Episode 34 of the podcast "Redefining Energy Tech" (part 2/2), host Michael Barnard engages with Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, author of "How Big Things Get Done," to delve into the intricacies and strategies of megaprojects, focusing particularly on the comparison between pumped hydro storage and battery systems.The conversation emphasizes the importance of modularity and repeatability in large-scale projects and highlights various risks associated with construction, including data deficiencies and stakeholder management.   Professor Flyvbjerg introduces the concept of the 'window of doom,' underscoring the necessity of swift project delivery to mitigate risk. The episode explores the advantages of modular construction as evidenced in projects like the Tesla Gigafactory and renewable energy sectors, contrasting these with the prolonged timelines typical of nuclear power plant constructions.The discussion provides actionable recommendations, urging listeners to review critical risk management heuristics and the variance chart from Flyvbjerg's book. These insights are aimed at enhancing project management practices in infrastructure development. Listeners are encouraged to understand base rates and project risks, utilize heuristics for successful project management, and consider the significance of the variance chart in Chapter 9 of Flyvbjerg's book. The episode concludes with a call to develop personal heuristics for managing megaprojects effectively.

Michael Barnard talks with Professor Bent Flyvbjerg (part 1/2), a leading expert on megaprojects and author of "How Big Things Get Done."Flyvbjerg shares insights from his extensive research, revealing that a staggering 99.5% of projects fail to meet budget, timeline, and benefit expectations. He discusses the critical importance of analyzing successful projects, particularly in the context of renewable energy, where solar and wind initiatives have proven to be more effective than nuclear power.  Flyvbjerg highlights the creation of a database containing over 16,000 megaprojects, which provides a comprehensive overview of the inherent challenges of nuclear energy. These challenges include regulatory hurdles and skill shortages, which contribute to the poor performance of nuclear projects. Additionally, Flyvbjerg explores the concept of small modular reactors as a potential solution to some of these issues, although they also face significant limitations.  Through this discussion, the episode sheds light on the complexities of project management within the energy sector and the factors that lead to successful outcomes. Flyvbjerg emphasizes the importance of studying successful projects to understand how they overcome the odds and achieve their goals. He highlights solar power, wind energy, and transmission as examples of successful project types, contrasting them with poorly performing projects like nuclear power and the Olympic Games.Overall, the episode provides valuable insights into the dynamics of megaprojects, particularly in the renewable energy sector, and underscores the need for effective project management strategies to ensure success.