TechCheck

After all that activist pressure, Marc Benioff’s M&A spending spree may seem like it’s ended – but in the past year, Salesforce has only been ramping up investments in AI startups. It’s funded at least seven, including leading a $200 million funding round for startup Hugging Face. Tonight’s numbers are set to show investors whether Benioff has more room to run, or will instead bring back more scrutiny. Plus, ETFs are closing at a record pace as niche funds targeting fads like crpyto, the metaverse, and Gen Z wane in popularity. On the flip side, the number of the less buzzy bond ETFs are soaring. 

Nvidia’s stock rise this year has been nothing short of meteoric. The chipmaker is at the heart of the AI boom as the supplier of chips that are required to build and run the likes of ChatGPT and other generative AI technologies. On this week of TechCheck Weekly, Deirdre Bosa digs into how Nvidia dominates this technological sea change and who is trying to challenge the chipmaker’s rule.

Nvidia’s blowout earnings is flexing its dominance in AI. Revenue at its data center segment, which includes AI chips like the A100 and H100, jumped 141% just from the last quarter. But are the cracks in that already beginning to show? Competition is beginning to emerge – on a software level from startups working on tools to reduce the cost of training and running machine learning models, and on the hardware front – from chipmakers and cloud service providers starting to produce their own AI chips. 

Can Nvidia do it again? Its blowout last quarter fueled a 220% rally this year and sent the market into an AI craze. Amid sky-high expectations, it might be the most crucial print of the season. The chipmaker has been the biggest contributor to the Nasdaq 100’s rally this year, and the options market is now bracing for a 10% move.

Softbank-owned Arm reported declining revenues and narrowing profits in its IPO filing last night, bringing into question whether Softbank founder and CEO Masayoshi Son will be able to pull off what’s expected to be the biggest U.S. debut this year. Son has said he wants Softbank to lead the AI revolution, with Arm as its biggest driver. But just how central is the chip designer to the revolution anyway? Its own filing said that its processors may not be suitable for AI purposes, and its biggest market, smartphones, is in decline. 

Softbank’s chip designer Arm is expected to file its F-1 for IPO today, revealing key finances and operations. But whether investors will buy its $64 billion pre-IPO valuation hinges on the filing showing that chip designer is truly at the center of the AI boom, as Softbank founder Masa Son claims, and not actually more like AI-adjacent. The listing would be the biggest in the U.S. in almost two years, and could jump start the IPO market. 

Instacart is reportedly planning to go public in September, and though public markets haven't been kind to gig economy companies, Instacart may be different. It has already achieved GAAP net income on its ad business, and is building up a leadership team of advertising heavyweights. Plus, Softbank’s chip designer Arm could also file its prospectus next week, in what would be 2023’s largest IPO and another big boost for U.S. listings.  

The Information's Jessica Lessin calls it the Musk Distraction Machine - cage matches and incessant memes that are designed to distract us from focusing on what's really happening at his businesses of X, Tesla, and SpaceX - and she says, don't fall for it. Plus, Microsoft is struggling hard against Google in the search engine wars, with Bing just barely gaining market share since the beginning of the year. Deepwater’s Gene Munster thinks Google will be the clear winner in the AI race, especially with the tech giant’s Gemini model set to launch soon.

Intel is scrapping a $5.4 billion deal for the Israeli chipmaker Tower Semiconductor after failing to get regulatory approval from China, where it derives more than 25% of its revenues. The deal falling through represents a big roadblock for CEO Pat Gelsinger's plans to enter the faster-growing foundry business, which would allow it to manufacture semiconductors for other companies. But one analyst writes, that might not even matter, since no one owns the stock for the foundry business. It’s also another way for China to fight back against the U.S. in the tug-of-war over chip supremacy. 

Fund managers who leaned into the tech rally and AI hype cycle saw big payoffs, according to this quarter's 13-Fs. Tech-focused funds saw 15% gains year-to-date, about three times that of the average hedge fund. The group also added to top AI plays, including 16 million shares of Nvidia and 12 million shares of Microsoft. We also take a look at which fund managers went against the grain with some under-the-radar trades.