TechCheck

Instacart today raised the price range for its upcoming IPO after Arm’s successful debut yesterday, boosting the valuation to around $10 billion dollars. But that might be little comfort to the investors who bought in at Instacart’s peak valuation of $39 billion two years ago. We break down the winners and losers of the debut, including the VCs who got in early and the big institutional investors that are getting put under the water.  

Softbank-backed chip designer Arm's successful listing today could open the IPO floodgates, according to Lux Capital’s Shahin Farshchi. He says the offering could generate more interest in new chip players, drive capital into private semi names, and encourage private companies to consider public market financing. The IPO might also be a much-needed win Masayoshi Son. Even though the Softbank founder has hung his entire legacy on being central to the AI shift, he’s had a number of big misses, including selling his stakes in Nvidia and perhaps self-driving startup Cruise too early.

The DOJ's landmark tech monopoly trial against Alphabet kicked off today – with the government grilling its first witness Google Chief Economist Hal Varian about his advice to the company on antitrust issues. It’s reminiscent of the DOJ’s big tech trial of 20 years ago against Microsoft, when Bill Gates was the big personality. This time around though, all eyes are on Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai -- and though he's often been called "soft-spoken" and a "nice guy," his track record so far suggests he may be the wartime CEO that Alphabet needs.

Instacart's new valuation of up to $9.3 billion is a massive down round from the $39 billion of a few years ago. Bill Gurley, a VC and early Uber investor, says that’s a healthy reset: "I've lived through 3 different bubbles and bursts in this industry and unfortunately it's highly cyclical. It tends to go up slowly and crash immediately." He also talked startups in the IPO pipeline, whether there’s an AI bubble, and more. 

We all lived through the SPAC boom of 2021 – when the blank check mergers accounted for 61% of all U.S. public listings that year… and the subsequent bust, with at least a dozen going bankrupt since then and more than a hundred now running low on cash. But even though many stopped paying attention to them, SPACs continued to live on. Now, two years later, there are signs of a resurgence, and some investors are seeing new opportunities. This week on Tech Check, zombie SPACs – back from the dead.

Calculating who is set to lose the most in the showdown between Disney and Charter is complex. Disney could lose contract fees for Charter’s 15 million subscribers, but the dispute is also driving a huge jump in Hulu + Live TV subs. Disney owns 67% of Hulu, but will also soon renegotiate ownership with Comcast. Plus, AI is increasingly playing a role in sports, most recently in this year’s U.S. Open. The USTA has been using IBM’s Watson AI to provide commentary, working to translate it into every possible language, and has even correctly forecast who’s most likely to win a match.  

China is an ever-present risk for Apple, but this week it's front and center on reports that China, which makes up 19% of Apple's revenue, is restricting the use of iPhones at government agencies, and the resurgence of Huawei - its new Mate 60 Pro smartphone is seen as the first significant threat to Apple's dominance in the market in years. Widely-followed hedge fund manager Dan Niles joins to discuss those headwinds and why Apple is now his largest single-stock short. 

A new report today forecasts a 5% increase in U.S. ad revenue this year, but says the TV ad sector is experiencing an "existential crisis" amid an ongoing showdown between Charter and Disney that's caused sports programming blackouts for millions just as the NFL season kicks off. Plus, a top Apple analyst breaks down why shares are down today, citing two big decisions against the company - the EU naming Apple, among others, a gatekeeper under its Digital Markets Act, and Chinese officials told they can't use iPhones for work or bring them into the office. 

The tech moguls and investors at this year's Burning Man also had to endure torrential downpours that caused campsite flooding and foot-deep mud. But one venture capitalist said that after getting over the mini panic attack of being stuck, most people embraced it. Plus, Disney has been butting heads with cable giant Charter over contract fees that has left millions without access to U.S. Open, college football and potentially Monday Night Football programming. Will this time show that Disney might not have the leverage it once did?

SPACs are back and volatile as ever. But the class of 2021 has settled somewhat, and that's where some investors are seeing opportunity. Proem Asset Management CIO Imran Khan, who also led Alibaba and Snap’s IPOs, says he's picked up shares in the banking app Dave, OpenDoor, and super app Grab because of what he calls arbitrage between private and public market valuations.