The Elephant In The Room Property Podcast | Inside Australian Real Estate

2026 is shaping up as a year of subtle indicators and big risks, and Louis Christopher breaks down the data points seasoned investors should be paying attention to right now.In this episode, Louis joins Veronica and Chris just days after releasing the 2026 edition to unpack the findings that matter most: population growth moderating sharply, supply finally catching up in pockets, and why rental pressure may ease before prices do. And, critically, he reveals the assumptions his modelling rests on — and the risks that could topple them.Louis walks us through the four core scenarios underpinning his 2026 outlook, including the one that unexpectedly took the lead in 2025, and the one he now believes may need a late addendum as sticky inflation raises the odds of a surprise rate hike. From unemployment edging toward 5%, to small business stress, to shifts in interstate migration, Louis explains how these macro levers shape the micro realities buyers and investors experience on the ground.We also zoom into the markets that defied expectations in 2025 — including Darwin’s explosive rebound and the Gold Coast’s continued growth despite being fundamentally overvalued. Louis breaks down why listings data is flashing one message, why developers are building for the wrong demographic, and where supply bottlenecks could turn into oversupply shocks by 2027. Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide remain the nation’s top performers, but Louis outlines exactly what conditions would need to change for any of them to lose steam.This conversation is packed with uncomfortable truths, grounded forecasts, and the kind of nuance you only get from someone who has studied the data for over two decades. Whether you’re trying to time a purchase, expand a portfolio, or simply understand where the market is heading next, Louis’ insights offer the clarity — and the caution — needed to navigate 2026 with your eyes open.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction to the 2026 Housing Market Outlook01:11 – Louis Christopher's Forecasting Approach02:18 – Reviewing the 2025 Predictions05:38 – Key Assumptions for 202607:53 – Interest Rate Scenarios for 202610:52 – Gold Coast Market Analysis15:14 – Darwin Market Insights18:56 – Structural Changes in Listings21:58 – Impact of High Transaction Costs on Listings23:12 – Market Dynamics in Different Cities25:10 – Investor Behavior and Market Trends26:42 – Rental Yields and Property Taxes28:49 – Interstate Investment Trends32:27 – Adelaide's Surprising Economic Resilience34:19 – Construction Costs and Housing Prices37:07 – Key Indicators for 2026 Market PredictionsAbout the GuestLouis Christopher is one of Australia’s most respected and closely watched housing market analysts. As the founder of SQM Research, he has spent nearly two decades building some of the country’s most trusted property indexes, data series, and market forecasts. Before establishing SQM in 2006, Louis served as Head of Research and General Manager at Australian Property Monitors, where his work informed Reserve Bank analysis and shaped national housing insights.With a background spanning technical market analysis, index construction, and independent forecasting, Louis has earned a reputation for calling turning points early — and for openly grading his own predictions each year. His annual Boom & Bust Report is widely regarded as one of Australia’s most transparent property forecasts, dissecting the interplay between population trends, supply pipelines, interest rates, and economic conditions.Louis is known for his no-nonsense approach, his statistical discipline, and his ability to explain complex market dynamics with clarity and precision. For investors, buyers and industry practitioners, his work offers a rare blend of independence, accuracy, and intellectual honesty.Connect with LouisLinkedInXSQM (Website)ResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.auLooking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.auWork with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.auLooking for a Mortgage Broker? alcove.com.auWork with Chris: chrisbates@alcove.com.au Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word, and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcastSubscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXMark0?si=26cde394fa854765If you enjoyed today’s podcast, don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and share the show! There’s more to come, so we hope to have you along with us on this journey!See you on the inside,Veronica & Chris

In this Q&A episode, Veronica and Chris unpack the real property questions investors are facing right now. From ATO debt rules to cashflow pressure and portfolio structure, this episode gets straight to the point and cuts through the myths.They break down a $5.3M portfolio spread across Logan, Townsville, Shepparton, regional WA and Melbourne’s fringe, revealing why “affordable” properties often deliver slow long-term growth — and when selling is actually the smarter move.The conversation also dives into rising insurance costs in flood-prone markets, including Gold Coast premiums hitting up to $20K a year. Veronica explains how underinsurance, flood overlays and lender behaviour could reshape future buyer demand.Finally, Chris explores whether AI-driven job losses could weaken the property market, or simply concentrate demand into fewer suburbs. If you want clearer strategy and better decision-making, this Q&A delivers the insights investors need now.Episode Highlights00:00 — Introduction and Listener Questions Overview00:25 — James' Question on Refinancing Loans05:43 — Michael's Property Portfolio Deconstruction18:14 — Nick's Question on Flood Insurance and Property Desirability20:36 — Insurance Challenges and Borrowing Concerns22:42 — Gold Coast Property Insights26:42 — AI's Impact on White Collar Jobs and Property Market27:59 — Future of Property Market Amid AI Revolution37:14 — Investment Strategies in a Changing Market41:50 — AI in Property Decision MakingLinksEpisode 374: How Will Climate Risk Impact Your Property’s Future Value?About the GuestMark Errichiello is a licensed buyers and vendors advocate and the Co-Founder & Director of Master Advocates, a Melbourne-based property advisory firm known for its strategic, data-driven approach to acquisitions, valuations, and auction representation. With decades of hands-on experience, Mark has attended every Block auction since the early seasons and understands the dynamics of high-pressure televised auctions better than most.Mark has represented bidders in both metropolitan and regional markets — including acting as an anonymous strategic bidder during the Phillip Island Block season — giving him unique insight into how buyer psychology, auction order, and market fundamentals shape outcomes. His commentary cuts through hype and focuses on realistic pricing, fair value, and the long-term risks buyers often overlook.Respected for his measured, forensic approach, Mark brings clarity to situations where emotion, spectacle, and production expectations collide with real market behaviour. His expertise helps buyers navigate fast-moving environments and make confident, well-informed decisions.Connect with GuestMark LinkedInMaster Advocate FacebookMaster Advocate InstagramMaster Advocate YouTubeResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.auLooking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.auWork with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.auLooking for a Mortgage Broker? alcove.com.auWork with Chris:chrisbates@alcove.com.au Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word, and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcastSubscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXMark0?si=26cde394fa854765If you enjoyed today’s podcast, don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and share the show! There’s more to come, so we hope to have you along with us on this journey!See you on the inside,Veronica & Chris

The Block 2025 auctions were billed as a massive TV spectacle — but what unfolded in Daylesford turned out to be one of the most revealing auction finales the show has aired in years. Five nearly identical, fully furnished homes were pushed to market on a single afternoon, each carrying price expectations the local market was never built to support. What followed was a rare moment where real buyer behaviour overpowered reality-TV momentum.To break down what really went on, we’re joined by buyers and vendors advocate Mark Errichiello, who attended the auctions, tracked buyer behaviour, and has followed The Block’s auction patterns for years. Mark explains how quoting in the low $3 millions set unrealistic expectations from day one, how the quality of the build couldn’t compensate for a non-premium location, and why bidder confidence evaporated the moment prices edged toward $3 million.We unpack the psychological chain reaction inside the room — how the stalled results of House 2 changed the energy for every house that followed, how auction order heavily influenced who bid and when, and why mid-auction reserve changes shattered trust and halted momentum entirely. Mark also highlights overlooked costs buyers faced this year: stamp duty on cars and furnishings, rising Victorian land tax, and the long-term financial drag of prestige builds in regional markets.This episode strips back the theatre and exposes the real mechanics at play — from buyer sentiment to pricing strategy to the risks of flipping homes far from their emotional sweet spot. If you want the unfiltered version of what The Block 2025 really showed us about Australia’s property market, this conversation is a must-listen.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction to the Block Auctions01:18 – Meet the Expert: Mark Errichiello01:52 – Auction Day Insights and Challenges02:52 – Market Realities and Auction Strategies04:33 – The Block's Unique Auction Dynamics05:43 – Behind the Scenes: Vendor and Agent Dynamics09:02 – The Realities of Property Flipping11:10 – Investment Considerations and Risks12:28 – Decoy Bidding Strategy13:38 – Market Sentiment and Future Trends14:54 – Final Thoughts on the Block Auctions19:59 – Pricing a Property with Furniture22:31 – Victoria's Land Tax Changes and Market Impact24:11 – Strategic Moves and Missteps in Property Auctions27:24 – Renovation Strategies for The Block34:34 – Melbourne Market Insights38:40 – A Memorable Client Story40:39 – Conclusion and Final ThoughtsLinksArticle: Behind the Hammer Inside The Block 2025 Daylesford AuctionsAbout the GuestMark Errichiello is a licensed buyers and vendors advocate and the Co-Founder & Director of Master Advocates, a Melbourne-based property advisory firm known for its strategic, data-driven approach to acquisitions, valuations, and auction representation. With decades of hands-on experience, Mark has attended every Block auction since the early seasons and understands the dynamics of high-pressure televised auctions better than most.Mark has represented bidders in both metropolitan and regional markets — including acting as an anonymous strategic bidder during the Phillip Island Block season — giving him unique insight into how buyer psychology, auction order, and market fundamentals shape outcomes. His commentary cuts through hype and focuses on realistic pricing, fair value, and the long-term risks buyers often overlook.Respected for his measured, forensic approach, Mark brings clarity to situations where emotion, spectacle, and production expectations collide with real market behaviour. His expertise helps buyers navigate fast-moving environments and make confident, well-informed decisions.Connect with MarkMark LinkedInMaster Advocate FacebookMaster Advocate InstagramMaster Advocate YouTubeResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.auLooking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.auWork with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.auLooking for a Mortgage Broker? alcove.com.auWork with Chris: chrisbates@alcove.com.au Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word, and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcastSubscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXMark0?si=26cde394fa854765If you enjoyed today’s podcast, don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and share the show! There’s more to come, so we hope to have you along with us on this journey!See you on the inside,Veronica & Chris

Everyone’s talking about AI as the future of property, but what if it’s quietly distorting how we see value?Veronica and Chris sit down with Luke Metcalfe, founder of Microburbs and DataScape, to reveal why precision in property data is often just an illusion. Luke, one of Australia’s leading data scientists, reveals why many AI-driven tools sound convincing but are often wrong — and how they can even manipulate our confidence in property decisions.From understanding what AI models are actually trained to do, to exploring why machine learning can’t yet capture local nuance or human psychology, this episode challenges the blind faith many investors place in “data-driven” insights.Luke explains the difference between language-based AI and number-based forecasting models, the dangers of herd thinking in machine learning, and how misinformation spreads faster when machines start selling the dream.If you’ve ever wondered whether AI could replace your buyer's agent — or if you’ve trusted a chatbot to tell you where to buy next — this is your wake-up call. Tune in to learn how to question the data, test the claims, and keep human intuition at the heart of smart investing.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction: The Illusion of Precision in Property Data00:27 – Guest Introduction: Luke Metcalfe01:50 – AI's Role in Property Decisions03:09 – Challenges and Limitations of AI in Real Estate05:16 – The Psychology of AI and Property Investment07:41 – AI's Persuasive Power and Ethical Concerns12:26 – Future of AI in Property Forecasting26:37 – Granularity and Local Knowledge in Property Data30:01 – The Importance of Human Experience in Property Evaluation37:18 – The Impact of Crime on Property Markets39:36 – Melbourne's Property Market Sentiment41:40 – The Role of Data in Real Estate47:36 – Future Trends and Technological ImpactsAbout the GuestLuke Metcalfe is an Australian entrepreneur and data scientist known for pioneering the use of large-scale analytics in understanding neighbourhood performance and property trends.After launching NationMaster, a global data platform attracting over 10 million monthly visitors, Luke founded Microburbs, a liveability and housing data company providing hyperlocal insights that help buyers, investors, and agents make informed decisions. He now leads DataScape, exploring the intersection of AI, big data, and human behaviour in real estate.Renowned for his first-principles approach and his ability to translate complex data into clear, actionable insights, Luke continues to shape how Australians understand location intelligence and property forecasting in an increasingly AI-driven world.Connect with LukeLuke’s LinkedInLuke’s EmailMicroburbs WebsiteMicroburbs LinkedInResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.auLooking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.auWork with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.auLooking for a Mortgage Broker? alcove.com.auWork with Chris: chrisbates@alcove.com.au Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word, and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcastSubscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXWilliam0?si=26cde394fa854765If you enjoyed today’s podcast, don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and share the show! There’s more to come, so we hope to have you along with us on this journey!See you on the inside,Veronica & Chris

Property investment has entered dangerous new territory. What used to be about building long-term wealth has become clouded by hype, shortcuts, and unqualified advice. Investors are being drawn into speculative schemes disguised as strategy. In this episode, Veronica and Chris sit down with Ben Kingsley, Founding Managing Director of Empower Wealth and Chair of the Property Investors Council of Australia (PICA), to unpack the alarming resurgence of speculative, misleading, and unlicensed property advice spreading across Australia.Ben recently authored an open letter to industry associations, warning of “get-rich-quick” operators, social media influencers, and unqualified advisors encouraging investors to buy properties through risky trust structures and self-managed super funds. He reveals how these practices are distorting regional markets, luring naive investors, and potentially triggering a regulatory backlash that could reshape the entire property sector.From “pump and dump” tactics to trust lending loopholes and the rise of volume-driven buyer’s agents buying sight unseen, this conversation exposes the systemic risks emerging from the unregulated fringes of the industry. Ben, Veronica, and Chris also explore how social media hype, FOMO marketing, and easy credit are fueling another wave of short-term speculation that could end in disaster.If you care about the future of Australia’s property market—or just want to protect yourself from being swept up in the next boom-and-bust cycle—this is an episode you can’t afford to miss.Episode Highlights00:00 — Why Risky Property Advice Is Back on the Rise01:36 — Speculative Behaviour: The Return of Fast-Money Mindsets02:25 — How Speculation Threatens Consumers and Market Stability03:59 — Unlicensed Advisors and the Power of Social Media Influence06:14 — Regional Market Distortions: When Buyer’s Agents Go Rogue08:21 — Will ASIC Step In? The Push for Property Regulation10:16 — The Role (and Responsibility) of Brokers and Buyer’s Agents13:01 — What Happens Next: Ben’s Call for Industry Reform32:06 — Rising Prices, Rising Pressure: The Human Cost of Property33:51 — Regional Boom or Bubble? Understanding the Market Risks36:41 — Property Prices vs. Fundamentals: When Growth Defies Logic39:47 — Speculation vs. Strategy: The Long-Term Investment Divide42:14 — Economic Viability: The Missing Piece in Modern Investing49:00 — Building a Sustainable Property Business, Not a Hype Machine52:41 — Owning Mistakes and the Power of Industry Accountability54:26 — Final Thoughts: Restoring Trust in Property AdviceLinksArticle: https://pica.asn.au/alarm-unlicensed-advice-market/ About the GuestBen Kingsley is the Founding and Managing Director of Empower Wealth and the inaugural Chair of the Property Investors Council of Australia (PICA). A Qualified Property Investment Advisor (QPIA) and one of Australia’s most respected voices in property, finance, and money management, Ben has spent over two decades advocating for professional standards and consumer protection in the property investment sector.A multi-award-winning advisor and frequent media commentator, Ben co-authored two bestselling books — The Armchair Guide to Property Investing and Make Money Simple Again — and co-hosts The Property Couch, Australia’s #1 property, finance, and money management podcast. Through Empower Wealth, Ben leads an integrated team of experts providing holistic financial advice across property, finance, tax, and wealth management.Driven by his belief that “anyone can improve their financial outcomes, regardless of their starting point,” Ben continues to challenge industry complacency and push for responsible, transparent, and ethical property investment practices across Australia.Connect with BenBen’s LinkedInBen’s EmailBen’s TwitterEmpower Wealth WebsiteEmpower Wealth LinkedInResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.auLooking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.auWork with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.auLooking for a Mortgage Broker? alcove.com.auWork with Chris: chrisbates@alcove.com.au Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word, and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcastSubscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXCathy0?si=26cde394fa854765If you enjoyed today’s podcast, don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and share the show! There’s more to come, so we hope to have you along with us on this journey!See you on the inside,Veronica & Chris

William Laing, Co-founder and CEO of Quiet List, dives into the hidden world of off-market real estate transactions. With a background in luxury real estate, he reveals that nearly 20% of Sydney homes are now sold off-market. Laing clarifies what constitutes off-market vs pre-market listings and discusses how buyer's agents play a pivotal role. He also shares insights on the challenges of verifying off-market transactions and the platform's mission to streamline agent connections while addressing privacy concerns in the property market.

Australia’s strata system was once a clever solution to urban living — a way to share land, lift homeownership, and build communities in growing cities. But decades later, that same framework is struggling to keep up with modern life.What once worked for small, low-rise communities now governs the high-density towers that house millions of Australians. The result? Costs have climbed, decision-making has grown more complex, and owners often find themselves footing bills for problems they didn’t createIn this episode, Prof. Cathy Sherry — Professor at Macquarie Law School and Executive Member of Smart Green Cities — explains how Australia’s outdated strata laws are now out of step with the country’s housing and sustainability goals. A leading international expert in land law and high-density development, Prof. Sherry unpacks how laws written in the 1960s for small walk-ups can’t handle the complexity of modern cities, locking owners into costly contracts, rising levies, and embedded energy networks that limit both choice and progress.From the hidden costs buried in off-the-plan sales to the barriers stopping apartments from going solar, Cathy reveals how a system designed to help Australians share space has instead made it harder to live well, live green, and live fairly.Listen now to learn why reforming strata isn’t just a legal fix — it’s key to building a fairer, more sustainable housing future for everyone.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction01:16 — Meet Prof. Cathy Sherry: Australia’s Leading Expert on Strata Law01:50 — How Shared Living Became Complex: The Challenge of Strata Ownership03:15 — Strata Levies, Legal Layers, and Why Collective Ownership Is Tricky06:37 — The Hidden Dangers of Buying Off-the-Plan Apartments in Australia11:09 — Embedded Networks Explained: The Hidden Costs of Strata Energy Deals20:18 — Can the Law Catch Up? Why Strata Reform Is Urgent for Modern Cities26:00 — Stratum Lots and Mixed-Use Buildings: Understanding Shared Land Titles26:48 — What Strata Management Statements Mean for Building Governance27:32 — Why Prof. Cathy Sherry Advocates for Fairer and Smarter Housing Laws28:54 — High-Density Housing Challenges: When Bigger Doesn’t Mean Better30:11 — Why Home Ownership Still Matters for Stability and Social Equality31:51 — Where Strata Schemes Fail: Issues With Governance and Accountability35:23 — How Investor Incentives Have Shaped Australia’s Housing Market43:27 — Smart Green Cities: Connecting Strata Reform to Sustainability Goals44:42 — Property Dumbo: A Real-World Example of Strata Mismanagement46:20 — Final Reflections and Where to Learn More From Prof. Cathy SherryLinksArticle: Embedded networks in high-density and master-planned housingAbout the GuestCathy Sherry is a Professor in Macquarie Law School and Executive Member of Smart Green Cities. She is a leading international expert in land law, with a particular focus on high density development. Her book Strata Title Property Rights: Private governance of multi-owned properties (Routledge, 2017) is the first academic monograph on Australian strata title. It has been cited by the Privy Council and the New South Wales Court of Appeal. Professor Sherry's research focuses on the complex legal, economic and social relationships created by collectively owned land. Professor Sherry regularly advises governments, domestically and internationally, on the laws governing multi-owned properties. She was a member of the United Kingdom Law Commission Technical Committee for the Reform of Commonhold from 2018-2020, and was engaged by the International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group) to reform the Fijian Unit Titles Act 1985 in 2021. She has advised governments in Asia, the Pacific and Middle East. In 2012, Professor Sherry was employed by the Administration of Norfolk Island to write a White Paper on the introduction of strata title to the Island, leading to the Community Title Act 2015 (NI).Connect with CathyLinkedInResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.auLooking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.auWork with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.auLooking for a Mortgage Broker? alcove.com.auWork with Chris: chrisbates@alcove.com.au Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word, and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcastSubscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXCathy0?si=26cde394fa854765If you enjoyed today’s podcast, don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and share the show! There’s more to come, so we hope to have you along with us on this journey!See you on the inside,Veronica & Chris

Australia’s housing shortage isn’t just about planning approvals or red tape — it’s about money. In this episode, commercial finance expert Jean-Pierre Gortan, Joint Founder of Simplicity Loans & Advisory, joins Veronica Morgan and Chris Bates to unpack the financial bottlenecks preventing new homes from being built, even in areas crying out for supply.Jean-Pierre draws on more than two decades of experience structuring complex, multi-lender deals to explain why so many developments are stuck in limbo. From Parramatta to Penrith, he reveals how post-COVID construction cost blowouts, tighter lending standards, and broken feasibility models have made many projects impossible to fund — even with demand at record highs.They discuss how non-bank lenders are filling the void left by traditional banks, why build-to-rent projects still struggle to stack up in high-cost cities like Sydney, and what state governments are doing through rezoning, TOD corridors, and density incentives to unlock supply. Jean-Pierre also shares insights into how the market differs between NSW, Victoria, and Queensland, and what policy shifts could finally make housing delivery viable again.This is a candid, ground-level look at the economics of housing supply — and a reminder that Australia’s housing crisis won’t be solved by planning reforms alone, but by rethinking how development is financed.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction02:12 — How COVID Cost Blowouts Crushed Feasibility03:51 — When Projects Don’t Stack Up Financially05:22 — Why Government Fixes Aren’t Solving Supply15:38 — Non-Bank Lenders: Who’s Funding Projects Now18:02 — Developers Adapting to a Tougher Market21:32 — How Finance Shapes Future Housing Supply25:53 — Residential vs Commercial: Shared Challenges26:27 — Why Banks Pulled Back from Construction Loans28:18 — Can Government Programs Reignite Building?29:48 — Pre-Sales Pressure: A Hidden Project Killer31:10 — Quality, Oversight, and Building Regulation Costs32:39 — Red Tape and Rezoning: The Slow Path to Supply36:40 –  Transport Oriented Development (TOD) and LMR Zones43:08 — Property Dumbo: Overconfidence in Feasibility44:45 — Final Thoughts: Funding and the Road AheadLinksJean-Pierre Gortan (website bio)LMR ViewerAbout the GuestJean-Pierre Gortan is the Joint Founder of Simplicity Loans & Advisory and one of Australia’s most respected figures in commercial finance. A back-to-back winner of the Australian Broker of the Year Award by MPA Magazine, Jean-Pierre has built a national reputation for solving some of the country’s most complex funding challenges with creativity, precision, and integrity.With more than two decades of experience across property, business, and development finance, he has been instrumental in steering Simplicity’s growth into one of Australia’s leading independent advisory firms. His expertise lies in structuring sophisticated, multi-lender transactions — from nine-figure refinances to bespoke development facilities — all with a focus on delivering exceptional client outcomes.Beyond finance, Jean-Pierre is a passionate advocate for community causes, having raised hundreds of thousands of dollars through initiatives such as the Larapinta Stage Race, the CEO Sleepout, and his ongoing support for the Women’s Resilience Centre. A proud father of two daughters, he believes true success lies in creating meaningful impact — for clients, colleagues, and the wider community — and in using business as a force for good.Connect with JPLinkedInSimplicity Loans and Advisory (Website)ResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.auLooking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.auWork with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.auLooking for a Mortgage Broker? alcove.com.auWork with Chris: chrisbates@alcove.com.au Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word, and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcastSubscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765If you enjoyed today’s podcast, don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and share the show! There’s more to come, so we hope to have you along with us on this journey!See you on the inside,Veronica & Chris

Property decisions today hinge on interest rates, inflation, and housing demand — but what if the traditional signals we’ve all relied on no longer give the full picture?In this episode, we sit down with Alan Oster, former Chief Economist of NAB and one of Australia’s most respected economic voices, to unpack what really matters in a housing market under stress.Alan explains why GDP, unemployment, and even consumer surveys can mislead investors, and why real-time banking data has changed the game. He shares stories from decades of forecasting — including times when the “headline” numbers pointed in the wrong direction — and highlights the three signals he believes are most useful for understanding where housing is headed.From the rental crisis to the impact of migration and state government land taxes, Alan dives into the structural pressures reshaping demand. He also addresses productivity stagnation, the future role of AI in jobs and housing, and why policy missteps continue to ripple through Australia’s economy.Whether you’re a property investor, policymaker, or simply trying to understand what’s next for interest rates and housing demand, Alan offers candid insights you won’t hear in the headlines. This episode is a rare chance to learn from the economist who has shaped Australia’s forecasting for over three decades.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction00:22 – Meet Alan Oster: NAB’s Former Chief Economist02:01 – Global Headwinds: US Politics, Tariffs & Trade03:01 – Economics as Psychology: Market Reactions Explained04:11 – Real-Time Banking Data Changes Forecasting05:12 – COVID Lessons: Spending Falls by Postcode06:30 – Hidden Stress: Households, Jobs & Policy Gaps13:49 – Australia’s Productivity Problem Unpacked15:35 – AI, Migration & the Future of Work23:36 – Property Choices: Wealth, Debt & Investor Behaviour26:10 – Land Taxes and Why Investors Are Selling27:05 – Migration, Housing Supply & the Rental Crunch28:22 – State Outlooks: Victoria, Adelaide, NSW & QLD29:05 – How Banks View Mortgages & Housing Risk31:45 – Productivity Growth Slows in Australia33:55 – Policy Fixes: Tax Reform & Build-to-Rent36:04 – Housing Market Costs, Supply & Gov’t Guarantees37:34 – Lessons from Past Crises & Recessions44:04 – Property Dumbo: Alan’s Downsizing StoryAbout the GuestAlan Oster is one of Australia’s most trusted economic forecasters, best known for his 33 years as Chief Economist at NAB. During his tenure, he built NAB’s influential Monthly Business Survey and pioneered the use of real-time banking data to track household and business behaviour — insights now shared with the RBA, ABS, and Treasury.Before joining NAB in 1992, Alan spent 15 years at Commonwealth Treasury, including four years in Paris as Australia’s representative at the OECD. Recognised as an authority on economic forecasting, monetary policy, and housing demand, he is a sought-after commentator in both public and private circles.Alan retired from NAB in 2025 but continues to share his expertise, offering a rare blend of sharp economic analysis and practical insights for policymakers, businesses, and property investors alike.Connect with AlanLinkedInResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.auLooking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.auWork with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.auLooking for a Mortgage Broker? alcove.com.auWork with Chris: chrisbates@alcove.com.au Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word, and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcastSubscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765If you enjoyed today’s podcast, don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and share the show! There’s more to come, so we hope to have you along with us on this journey!See you on the inside,Veronica & Chris

What’s really driving property investors in 2025? The latest PIPA Investor Sentiment Survey lays it bare — and the results matter for every investor, renter, and policymaker in Australia.In this episode, we’re joined by Lachlan Vidler, Chair of the Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA), to unpack the top findings. The survey shows investors are selling under pressure—with debt reduction, compliance costs, and land tax topping the list of reasons. But here’s the kicker: when those properties are sold, only 42% stay in the rental pool, shrinking rental supply and pushing rents higher.Policy risk looms large too. More than half of investors said they’d exit if negative gearing was altered, while others flagged land tax, compliance, and rental caps as breaking points. Yet in the same breath, nearly 60% of investors still believe it’s a good time to buy. That fragile optimism is keeping the market alive even as costs bite.Finally, the survey reveals who investors actually turn to for advice—mostly mortgage brokers and accountants, not property specialists. Why does that matter? Because it explains why investor behaviour often swings between optimism and panic, shaping rental markets and property prices in ways that affect us all.This episode is packed with insights every property investor needs to hear—because the decisions you and your peers make today are reshaping Australia’s housing market for tomorrow.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction02:04 – Why the Rental Market Is Being Reshaped03:11 – Top Reasons Investors Are Selling Properties04:39 – How Rising Costs Erode Investor Confidence07:08 – Pain in Melbourne, Gains in Brisbane08:15 – Federal Reforms Driving Investor Uncertainty12:02 – The Rental Pool Is Shrinking—What It Means14:29 – Supply, Demand, and Speculative Investment22:34 – Why Industry and Government Clash on Reform26:17 – How Politics Shapes Investor Outcomes28:40 – Lobbying, Legislation, and Investor Reaction31:06 – Who Investors Really Trust for Property Advice34:15 – Why Investors Need Holistic Property Guidance38:29 – Fragile Optimism: 60% Still Say It’s Time to Buy47:39 – Property Dumbo: Signing Contracts Too Soon50:01 – Wrap-Up and Where to Find PIPA ResourcesMentionsRental crisis worsens as more investors exit the market – 2025 PIPA Investor SurveyAbout the GuestLachlan Vidler is the Chair of the Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA), the peak body advocating for higher standards and transparency across the property industry. With deep experience as a property advisor and investor, Lachlan brings unique insight into the data and psychology behind investor behaviour.At PIPA, he works to raise professional standards, educate investors, and shape better policy outcomes for the housing sector. His leadership positions him at the centre of Australia’s most pressing conversations on affordability, rental supply, and the future of property investment.Connect with LachlanLinkedInInstagramResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.auLooking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.auWork with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.auLooking for a Mortgage Broker? alcove.com.auWork with Chris: chrisbates@alcove.com.au Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word, and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcastSubscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765If you enjoyed today’s podcast, don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and share the show! There’s more to come, so we hope to have you along with us on this journey!See you on the inside,Veronica & Chris