The Elephant In The Room Property Podcast | Inside Australian Real Estate Louis Christopher: Are We Heading for a Market Slowdown or Another Surge?
2026 is shaping up as a year of subtle indicators and big risks, and Louis Christopher breaks down the data points seasoned investors should be paying attention to right now.
In this episode, Louis joins Veronica and Chris just days after releasing the 2026 edition to unpack the findings that matter most: population growth moderating sharply, supply finally catching up in pockets, and why rental pressure may ease before prices do. And, critically, he reveals the assumptions his modelling rests on — and the risks that could topple them.
Louis walks us through the four core scenarios underpinning his 2026 outlook, including the one that unexpectedly took the lead in 2025, and the one he now believes may need a late addendum as sticky inflation raises the odds of a surprise rate hike. From unemployment edging toward 5%, to small business stress, to shifts in interstate migration, Louis explains how these macro levers shape the micro realities buyers and investors experience on the ground.
We also zoom into the markets that defied expectations in 2025 — including Darwin’s explosive rebound and the Gold Coast’s continued growth despite being fundamentally overvalued. Louis breaks down why listings data is flashing one message, why developers are building for the wrong demographic, and where supply bottlenecks could turn into oversupply shocks by 2027. Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide remain the nation’s top performers, but Louis outlines exactly what conditions would need to change for any of them to lose steam.
This conversation is packed with uncomfortable truths, grounded forecasts, and the kind of nuance you only get from someone who has studied the data for over two decades. Whether you’re trying to time a purchase, expand a portfolio, or simply understand where the market is heading next, Louis’ insights offer the clarity — and the caution — needed to navigate 2026 with your eyes open.
Episode Highlights
00:00 – Introduction to the 2026 Housing Market Outlook
01:11 – Louis Christopher's Forecasting Approach
02:18 – Reviewing the 2025 Predictions
05:38 – Key Assumptions for 2026
07:53 – Interest Rate Scenarios for 2026
10:52 – Gold Coast Market Analysis
15:14 – Darwin Market Insights
18:56 – Structural Changes in Listings
21:58 – Impact of High Transaction Costs on Listings
23:12 – Market Dynamics in Different Cities
25:10 – Investor Behavior and Market Trends
26:42 – Rental Yields and Property Taxes
28:49 – Interstate Investment Trends
32:27 – Adelaide's Surprising Economic Resilience
34:19 – Construction Costs and Housing Prices
37:07 – Key Indicators for 2026 Market Predictions
About the Guest
Louis Christopher is one of Australia’s most respected and closely watched housing market analysts. As the founder of SQM Research, he has spent nearly two decades building some of the country’s most trusted property indexes, data series, and market forecasts. Before establishing SQM in 2006, Louis served as Head of Research and General Manager at Australian Property Monitors, where his work informed Reserve Bank analysis and shaped national housing insights.
With a background spanning technical market analysis, index construction, and independent forecasting, Louis has earned a reputation for calling turning points early — and for openly grading his own predictions each year. His annual Boom & Bust Report is widely regarded as one of Australia’s most transparent property forecasts, dissecting the interplay between population trends, supply pipelines, interest rates, and economic conditions.
Louis is known for his no-nonsense approach, his statistical discipline, and his ability to explain complex market dynamics with clarity and precision. For investors, buyers and industry practitioners, his work offers a rare blend of independence, accuracy, and intellectual honesty.
Connect with Louis
Resources
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- Looking for a Mortgage Broker? alcove.com.au
- Work with Chris: chrisbates@alcove.com.au
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See you on the inside,
Veronica & Chris